Season record: 9-10-1
Last week: 3-1-1 (Colorado +10, Iowa +5.5, Utah -7.5, Ole Miss/Florida over 58.5, USC +3)
That is more like it! Another winning week brings us within a game of .500. It is not where we want to be, but it is a lot better than where we were. How about another winning week?
Pittsburgh Panthers (4-0) @ Virginia Tech Hokies (4-0) | October 2 | 6:00 PM CT | Lane Stadium
Line: Virginia Tech -3.5 | Total: 54.5
We start with a Friday game from Blacksburg. Both Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech enter this matchup undefeated.
Pittsburgh quarterback Mason Heintschel is off to a strong start this season. Heintschel has 13 passing touchdowns so far this season. Only three quarterbacks in the country have more, with 14.
This week, Heintschel will face a Virginia Tech defense that gave up 359 passing yards and 3 touchdowns when they faced Maryland.
Last week, Virginia Tech found themselves in a tight one against Boston College. A fourth quarter, 76-yard touchdown run by Jeffrey Overton Jr. was the difference for the Hokies.
Expect that to get more difficult against a Pittsburgh defense that allows only 53.3 rushing yards per game. Give me Pittsburgh +3.5.
West Virginia Mountaineers (3-1) @ Iowa State Cyclones (3-1) | October 3 | 11:00 AM CT | Jack Trice Stadium
Line: Iowa State -3.5 | Total: 52.5
Despite a setback last week, this West Virginia team has shown promise. At 3-1 with a win over Virgnia, the Mountaineers look like an improved team. Much of that is thanks to the rushing combo of quarterback Michael Hawkins and running back Cam Cook. The pair has combined for 935 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns.
While this duo does most of the work, receiver DJ Epps has also played a factor. Epps averages a whopping 27.9 yards per catch on the season.
The West Virginia running game should be a big story in this matchup. The Iowa State defense surrendered 209 rushing yards in their loss to Utah last week.
As for the Iowa State offense, it has been rather tough sledding. The Cyclones average 345.3 yards per game, which ranks 110th in the country.
Country roads, take me home! West Virginia +3.5 is my pick.
#5 Ohio State Buckeyes (3-1) @ #14 Iowa Hawkeyes (4-0) | October 3 | 2:30 PM CT | Kinnick Stadium
Line: Ohio State -14 | Total: 45.5
Last week, I told you about Iowa quarterback Hank Brown and how he just gets the job done. What he did against Michigan exemplified that as he threw for a season-high 227 yards, including a game-winning touchdown pass in the final seconds.
This week will be another big challenge as the Hawkeyes welcome in one of the most talented teams in the country in Ohio State.
As expected, the Buckeyes defense is no slouch. Ohio State allows only 4.8 yards per pass attempt. I expect a conservative approach from the Iowa offense as a result. This suits the Hawkeyes just fine as long as their defense is up to the task.
The main objective will be slowing down receiver Jeremiah Smith. Smith leads the country in both receiving yards per game (154.3) and receiving touchdowns (7).
Expect a better gameplan against Smith than what you saw a week ago from Illinois.
While Smith has been stellar, his quarterback Julian Sayin has come up a bit short in the Buckeyes’ recent big games. In his last three games against ranked opponents going back to last season (Indiana, Miami, and Texas), Sayin has thrown for three touchdowns and four interceptions. Consequently, Ohio State lost in all of those games.
At home, I expect the Hawkeyes to make this a low-scoring affair. I am going with Iowa +14 and under 45.5.
#10 BYU Cougars (3-0) @ TCU Horned Frogs (2-2) | October 3 | 6:00 PM CT | Amon G. Carter Stadium
Line: BYU -6.5 | Total: 47.5
At 2-2, TCU is off to a disappointing start. Based on reports around the program, it does not sound very encouraging.
In addition, there was also a players-only meeting. When this is happening, especially this early in the season, that is not a great sign.
Now, they play host to BYU. The Cougars, meanwhile, have to feel good about where they stand. In their last game, BYU put up a season-high 559 yards of offense in a win over Colorado State. Running back LJ Martin led the way with 176 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns.
The TCU defense has been rather good in their own right. The Horned Frogs have allowed only 264.8 yards per game. However, BYU represents a clear step-up in class for TCU.
The TCU offense has struggled to put up points against “Power Four” opponents, which both of their losses came against. The Horned Frogs averaged 11.5 points in those games. That will be a challenge again against a BYU defense that has allowed 47 points through three games. BYU gave up 23 points against Colorado State, but 16 came in “garbage time” after the Cougars had a 38-7 lead.
I am taking BYU -6.5.
Cincinnati Bearcats (4-0) @ Arizona Wildcats (3-1) | October 3 | 10 PM CT | Casino Del Sol Stadium
Line: Arizona -7 | Total: 55.5
The Big 12 is always finding new and innovative ways to entertain us, so grab your Monster Energy and tune in for this late kick between Cincinnati and Arizona.
Cincinnati pulled off an upset win over Kansas State last week. Cincinnati had an overwhelming ground game as they put up 271 rushing yards. Running back Cole Tabb had three rushing touchdowns.
Cincinnati will face an Arizona defense that has been stiff against the run. However, their one Big 12 opponent, BYU, did have success on the ground. The Cougars averaged 4.9 yards per carry. Cincinnati should be able to have similar success.
In addition to the great running game, Cincinnati quarterback JC French is playing his part. French is completing 74.5% of his passes, with 6 touchdowns and no interceptions.
The Arizona offense is centered around quarterback Noah Fifita. Fifita has thrown for four touchdowns in each of his last two games.
While Fifita presents a challenge for the Cincinnati defense, they were able to hold Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson to 5.8 yards per pass attempt last week.
Ultimately, this game will come down to Cincinnati’s rushing attack. Like Skyline Chili, it is explosive and hard to deal with. For that reason, I am taking Cincinnati +7.
OUTTA HERE!
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[…] Last week: 4-2 (Pittsburgh +3.5, West Virginia +3.5, Iowa +14, Ohio State/Iowa under 45.5, BYU -6.5, Cincinnati +7) […]
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