Season record: 6-9
Last week: 3-2 (Arizona State -5.5, Kansas State -20.5, Mississippi State +4, Florida/Auburn over 53.5, Maryland +3)
Last week, we got our first winning week of the season. With a season record of 6-9, I could make jokes or I can get to work. I will go with the latter. Let’s get to the picks!
Colorado Buffaloes (2-1) @ Baylor Bears (2-1) | September 26 | 11:00 AM CT | McLane Stadium
Line: Baylor -10 | Total: 55.5
A wise man once asked, “Do you believe now?”. That wise man was Colorado coach Deion Sanders, better known as “Coach Prime”. Well, after a 41-7 loss at Northwestern, the answer is probably not.
While the Colorado offense only scored seven points last week, they moved the ball rather well, particularly on the ground. The Buffaloes ran for 180 yards at Northwestern last week. Unlike Sanders’ previous teams, this year’s version has a potent rushing attack that can run the ball. Running backs Micah Welch and JaQuail Smith both average over five yards per carry on the season.
It was costly turnovers that did the Buffaloes in last week. Colorado had two interceptions to go along with two fumbles.
Following the game, there was also turnover on the Colorado roster.
On the Baylor side, Nate Bennett filled in at quarterback for the injured DJ Lagway. Bennett had a very nice performance, completing 21 of 24 passes for 253 yards and 3 touchdowns.
However, Lagway is set to return this week.
Lagway was injured in the first game of the season against Auburn. He had a rollercoaster day with two passing touchdowns as well as an interception and a fumble.
This game should come down to whoever can hold onto the ball. With a competent running game buoying their offense, I am taking Colorado +10.
DO YOU BELIEVE?
#17 Iowa Hawkeyes (3-0) @ #18 Michigan Wolverines (3-0*) | September 26 | 2:30 PM CT | Michigan Stadium
Line: Michigan -5.5 | Total: 38.5
Featuring a total of 38.5, this figures to be one of those classic Big Ten matchups where we get about a dozen punts on each side.
Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood is still out to prove he is one of the elite quarterbacks in the country. The highly-touted Underwood is coming off his best passing performance of the season, 223 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions. However, that was against UTEP. This week, Underwood will face an Iowa defense that allows only 4.4 yards per pass attempt.
The Iowa offense is not sexy, but quarterback Hank Brown gets the job done. Brown enters the matchup completing 72.6% of his passes. He has thrown for three touchdowns and run for another on the season.
In a defensive battle like this, I am going to side with Iowa +5.5.
#15 Utah Utes (3-0) @ Iowa State Cyclones (2-1) | September 26 | 2:30 PM CT | Jack Trice Stadium
Line: Utah -7.5 | Total: 48.5
Iowa State’s defense is allowing only 226.3 yards per game. However, they are about to host one of the nation’s most dynamic quarterbacks in Utah quarterback Devon Dampier. Dampier has been a magnificent passer this season. He is completing 71.6% of passes and averaging 9.3 yards per pass attempt. While Dampier has not put up huge rushing numbers, he has shown the ability to use them. Dampier had two rushing touchdowns in the win over Arkansas.
The Utah defense is equally impressive, especially against the run. The Utes allow only 75 rushing yards per game. This week they will face an Iowa State team that runs the ball at the seventh-highest rate in the country. The Cyclones have run the ball on 67.8% of their plays this season.
I am taking Utah -7.5.
#4 Ole Miss Rebels (3-0) @ #21 Florida Gators (3-0) | September 26 | 2:30 PM CT | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Line: Florida -3 | Total: 58.5
Coming off the huge win over LSU, everyone knows this is a trap game for Ole Miss. A very good Florida team awaits them in Gainesville. However, Trinidad Chambliss has proven he can overcome almost anything. The Rebels quarterback threw for 363 yards and 3 touchdowns, then ran in the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter against LSU.
Chambliss should fare well against a Florida defense that gave 271 passing yards and 3 touchdown passes last week.
On the other side, the Florida offense continues to pile up big numbers. Running back Jadan Baugh continues to lead the way. Baugh had 162 yards and 3 touchdowns in the win over Auburn last week.
No one has contained Baugh this season, and I do not expect that to change this week against an Ole Miss defense coming off a physical game last week.
I am taking over 58.5.
#20 Oregon Ducks (2-1) @ #12 USC Trojans | September 26 | 6:30 PM CT | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Line: Oregon -3 | Total: 62.5
I know we are not supposed to judge teams on their worst performances, but I cannot get over what Oklahoma State did to Oregon just two weeks ago. Oklahoma State outgained Oregon 554-281 in yardage. While it may have been an upset in terms of odds, the Cowboys simply dominated on the field.
Now, the Ducks head to Los Angeles where they will face off against an explosive USC offense. USC quarterback Jayden Maiava leads the nation with 12 touchdown passes. He is also averaging 10.2 yards per attempt.
The USC defense has struggled in recent weeks, giving up 30 and 35 points to UL-Lafayette and Rutgers, respectively.
Maybe it is simply that both these teams struggle on the road. In that case, I will take the home team. USC +3 is my pick.
OUTTA HERE!
One response to “Nado’s Notions: Week 4”
[…] Last week: 3-1-1 (Colorado +10, Iowa +5.5, Utah -7.5, Ole Miss/Florida over 58.5, USC +3) […]
LikeLike