Season record: 30-21-2
Last week: 1-4 (Tulane/Memphis over 55.5, TCU -6.5, Washington -11.5, North Carolina -7.5, Navy +26.5)
It was a good start as Tulane and Memphis went over on Friday night, but Saturday was a disaster. TCU lost to Iowa State despite outgaining them by 160 yards. Washington lost to Wisconsin, whose punter was their leading passer. North Carolina had a 20-3 fourth quarter lead, but only won by five after two Stanford touchdowns. Finally, Notre Dame throttled Navy, which was quite disrespectful with Veteran’s Day this week.
I considered hiring an interim this week, but I was notified I was not formally terminated. With no buyout in hand, I am back for another week of picks.
#18 Michigan Woverines (7-2) @ Northwestern Wildcats (5-4) | November 15 | 11:00 AM CT | Wrigley Field
Line: Michigan -11.5 | Total: 41.5
Northwestern has lost two in a row on the road. The Wildcats now return home, well kind of, as they host Michigan at Wrigley Field.
Last time out, Northwestern was victimized by the USC passing offense as quarterback Jayden Maiava threw for 299 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Trojans have one of the top passing offenses in the country, averaging 303 passing yards per game.4
Things should get easier this week against the Michigan offense. The Wolverines average a modest 185.7 yards per game through the air.
The Michigan offense makes its hay on the ground. However, leading rusher Justice Haynes is expected to miss this game.
Northwestern, meanwhile, has a competent rushing attack. Running back Caleb Komolafe has topped 100 rushing yards in back-to-back weeks, with three touchdowns in that span.
I am taking Northwestern +11.5.
Kansas State Wildcats (4-5) @ Oklahoma State Cowboys (1-8) | November 15 | 11:00 AM CT | Boone Pickens Stadium
Line: Kansas State -19.5 | Total: 52.5
If you have been paying attention, you would know that Oklahoma State is one of the worst teams in all of FBS. When you look at their numbers, it illustrates how astoundingly bad the Cowboys are. Oklahoma State ranks 132nd in both yards per play (4.56) and yards per play allowed (6.53).
On the other side, Kansas State has had a mid-season turnaround after a 2-4 start. A big key has been the play of quarterback Avery Johnson. In back-to-back wins over TCU and Kansas, Johnson threw five touchdowns and no interceptions along with two rushing touchdowns.
Kansas State looks to finish the season off strong, while Oklahoma State is just ready for this season to come to an end.
Give me Kansas State -19.5.
Arizona Wildcats (6-3) @ #25 Cincinnati Bearcats (7-2) | November 15 | 11:00 AM CT | Nippert Stadium
Line: Cincinnati -6.5 | Total: 56.5
Cincinnati returns to historic Nippert Stadium after a beatdown at the hands of Utah. The forecast calls for wind gusts up to 22 miles per hour, which could have an effect on the passing game.
However, both teams feature potent rushing attacks. Cincinnati averages 195 rushing yards per game, which ranks 25th in the country. Arizona has two running backs averaging over six yards per carry. Quincy Craig averages 7.03 yards per carry while fellow running back Ismail Mahdi averages 6.78 yards per carry.
Craig and Mahdi will face a Cincinnati rush defense that has not fared well as of late. The Bearcats have allowed an average of 203.8 rushing yards per game in their last four games.
Arizona has had similar struggles stopping the run. The Wildcats have allowed an average of 197.3 rushing yards per game over their last four.
Not to bury the lede, but there are also two quality quarterbacks in this matchup in Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby and Arizona’s Noah Fifita. Sorsby has thrown for 21 touchdowns this season, while Fifita has thrown for 23.
Give me over 56.5.
West Virginia Mountaineers (4-6) @ Arizona State Sun Devils (6-3) | November 15 | 12:00 PM CT | Mountain America Stadium
Line: Arizona State -11.5 | Total: 48.5
The West Virginia offense has sputtered for most of the season. However, that was before quarterback Scotty Fox Jr. entered the picture. Fox Jr. has ignited the offense and led the Mountaineers to two straight wins. In those victories, Fox Jr. threw for 359 yards and ran for 123 yards.
While Fox Jr. has stepped up for West Virginia, it was quarterback Jeff Sims who stepped up for Arizona State. With starter Sam Leavitt out for the season, Sims delivered in the 24-19 win over Iowa State. Sims had 228 rushing yards as he carried the Sun Devils to a win.
I expect things to be tougher for Sims against the West Virginia defense. The Mountaineers have held opponents to an average of 76.3 rushing yards per game over their last three games.
I am going with West Virginia +11.5.
North Carolina State Wolfpack (5-4) @ #18 Miami Hurricanes (7-2) | November 15 | 2:30 PM CT | Hard Rock Stadium
Line: Miami -14.5 | Total: 55.5
The North Carolina State offense has been on fire lately. The Wolfpack has piled up 1,028 yards over their last two games. They managed to split those games between Pittsburgh and Georgia Tech.
While the Wolfpack has a quality offense, their defense leaves quite a bit to be desired. North Carolina State allows 424.8 yards per game, which is 122nd in the country.
Expect Miami quarterback Carson Beck to take advantage of this defense. Beck is coming off a strong performance against Syracuse in which he completed 18 of 24 passes for 247 yards and a touchdown.
He will have turn in another strong performance with North Carolina State quarterback CJ Bailey on the other side. Bailey, a Miami native, has thrown for 2,411 yards and 19 touchdowns on the season.
Over 55.5 is the pick.
OUTTA HERE!
Clarknado Sports 
One response to “Nado’s Notions: Week 12”
[…] Last week: 2-3 (Northwestern +11.5, Kansas State -19.5, Arizona/Cincinnati over 56.5, West Virginia +11.5, North Carolina State/Miami over 55.5) […]
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