Season record: 13-6
Last week: 4-1 (UNLV -2.5, Texas Tech/Utah under 57.5, Michigan -2.5, Tulane +12.5, Michigan State/USC over 56.5)
4-1 is our best week to date. Let’s take a look at how we got there.
UNLV was a wild ride, but they won and covered on a last-minute field goal. This turnover played a huge role.
Turnovers played a big role in the Texas Tech and Utah under hitting as the teams combined for six.
Michigan won and covered over Nebraska behind its running game, namely Justice Haynes.
Tulane was blown out by Ole Miss, which was the lone loss of the day.
USC and Michigan State flew over the total as the teams combined for 76 points in the late night window.
Before I get to my picks for this week, I need to address something. I sometimes get asked if I will pick LSU. Truth be told, I always pick LSU. Since I am too biased, I will abstain from picking LSU games the same way Kirk Herbstreit does from games that he is calling.
That said, let’s get some winners!
#24 TCU Horned Frogs (3-0) @ Arizona State Sun Devils | September 26 | 8:00 PM CT | Mountain America Stadium
Line: Arizona State -2.5 | Total: 55.5
After a slow start, the Arizona State passing offense has ignited the past two weeks. Sun Devils quarterback Sam Leavitt has begun to look like the guy who came into the season with high expectations. After throwing for just 82 yards at Mississippi State, Leavitt has thrown for 409 yards and 3 touchdowns in his last two games.
Arizona State will be taking on a TCU defense that ranks 103rd in passing yards per game allowed. That includes a game against FCS Abilene Christian in which quarterback Stone Earle went 22 of 29 for 276 yards and 2 touchdowns. TCU won handily, but nevertheless, there are passing plays to be had against this defense.
When it comes to passing games, I am not sure anyone has a better one than TCU. Quarterback Josh Hoover leads the country in passing yards per game at 333.3. Last week, he and wide receiver Eric McAlister combined for a huge day in the win over SMU. McAlister reeled in 8 catches for 254 yards and 3 touchdowns. Hoover threw for 379 yards and 5 touchdowns on the day.
With these passing attacks rolling like this, I am going with over 55.5.
#15 Tennessee Volunteers (3-1) @ Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-0) | September 27 | 3:15 PM CT | Davis Wade Stadium
Line: Tennessee -7.5 | Total: 62.5
The Tennessee offense is rolling. The Volunteers are averaging 53.5 points per game, which is fourth in the country.
However, the Volunteers are not the only potent offense in this matchup. Mississippi State quarterback Blake Shapen has guided the Bulldog offense to a 4-0 record. Shapen has a completion percentage of 67.0% and averages 8.8 yards per attempt.
In their last two games, their rushing attack has really picked up. Running back Fluff Bothwell has taken over as the lead back and averages 5.77 yards per carry on the season.
This will be Joey Aguilar’s first road start as a Tennessee Volunteer. Aguilar has enjoyed a successful start to the season, but is he ready for a fired up Davis Wade Stadium?
Give me the home ‘dogs! Mississippi State +7.5 is my pick.
#6 Oregon Ducks (4-0) @ #3 Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0) | September 27 | 6:30 PM CT | Beaver Stadium
Line: Penn State -3.5 | Total: 52.5
Both these teams have dominated their weak competition to begin the season. Penn State is coming off a bye after dismissing the likes of Nevada, Florida International, and Villanova. Meanwhile, Oregon just shellacked former rival Oregon State and made apparent that the two are no longer in the same league.
I will get right to it, I do not think anything could make me pick Penn State in this game. Seeing Oregon coach Dan Lanning talk about his team’s preparation has me confident in that decision.
I am taking Oregon +3.5.
Kentucky Wildcats (2-1) @ South Carolina Gamecocks (2-2) | September 27 | 6:45 PM CT | Williams-Brice Stadium
Line: South Carolina -6.5 | Total: 45.5
South Carolina has been one of the biggest disappointments of the 2025 season. At 2-2, the Gamecocks look like a shell of the team that nearly made the College Football Playoff in 2024.
Quarterback LaNorris Sellers had a big day passing against Missouri last week. However, it was not enough as they fell 29-20. The Gamecocks inability to run the ball was apparent as they finished with -9 rushing yards on the night.
South Carolina will face a Kentucky defense that has not stopped much this season. The Wildcats are last in the SEC in total defense, allowing 415 yards per game.
The Kentucky offense will turn to quarterback Cutter Boley for his second straight start. Boley threw two touchdowns in his first start against Eastern Michigan. Coming into that game, the Wildcats had none.
This feels like a buy-low spot for the Gamecocks. I am taking South Carolina -6.5.
#25 BYU Cougars (3-0) @ Colorado Buffaloes (2-2) | September 27 | 9:15 PM CT | Folsom Field
Line: BYU -6.5 | Total: 47.5
BYU has been dominant so far this season. Their formula has been simple; they run the football and stop the run. Running back LJ Martin has gone over 100 yards in every game this season while averaging 8.55 yards per carry.
The Cougar defense is second in the country allowing only 44.3 rushing yards per game. Their opponent, however, struggles against the run. Colorado has allowed 194.5 rushing yards per game on the season.
The Colorado offense appears in good hands with Kaidon Salter at quarterback. Salter accounted for 390 yards and 4 touchdowns in the win over Wyoming last week.
Have the Buffaloes found another gear or was it just Wyoming?
We shall see, but I am going with BYU -6.5.
OUTTA HERE!
Clarknado Sports 
One response to “Nado’s Notions: Week 5”
[…] Last week: 3-2 (TCU/Arizona State over 55.5, Mississippi State +7.5, Oregon +3.5, South Carolina -6.5, BYU -6.5) […]
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