Season record: 9-5
Last week: 3-2 (Pittsburgh -7, Arkansas +7, Notre Dame -7, Duke/Tulane over 54.5, Texas State/Arizona State under 59)
Both Pittsburgh and Notre Dame lost outright as favorites, but the other three all won, so it was another positive week. Obviously, there is still room for improvement. Let’s get to it!
UNLV Rebels (3-0) @ Miami Ohio Redhawks (0-2) | September 20 | 11:00 AM CT | Yager Stadium
Line: UNLV -2.5 | Total: 50.5
UNLV heads east for the first time this season after a 3-0 start. Quarterback Anthony Colandrea is the headliner and he averages 10.0 yards per attempt on the season. Colandrea and the UNLV offense also average 35.3 points per game.
Miami Ohio has been defeated soundly twice by two Big Ten teams in their first two games. Their last opponent, Rutgers, was able to find success through the air. Rutgers quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis completed 26 of 36 passes for 259 yards and 4 touchdowns.
The UNLV defense has struggled mightily against the run. However, outside of quarterback Dequan Finn, the RedHawks have struggled to run the ball effectively. Finn has 98 yards on the season, while the rest of the team has 53 yards on 21 carries.
The UNLV defense is not a superb stop unit, but they are an opportunistic group. The Rebels are +5 in the turnover margin, which is tied for 11th in the country.
I am taking UNLV -2.5.
#17 Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-0) @ #16 Utah Utes (3-0) | September 20 | 11:00 AM CT | Rice-Eccles Stadium
Line: Utah -3 | Total: 57.5
Both of these teams have been great so far this season. However, it has come against a lack of competition. This game will kick off at 10:00 am in Salt Lake City, which lends itself to a potential slow start.
At home, I expect Utah to use their running game to slow the game down. Thus far, the Utes have done so very effectively. Utah is seventh in the country in time of possession percentage at 60.81%. That will be practical in keeping the explosive Texas Tech offense, which averages 602.7 yards per game, off the field.
Quarterback Devon Dampier is an experienced player, but this is his first big game at Utah. Dampier is off to a nice start in Utah, with a completion percentage of 73% and 7 passing touchdowns. He has also been an effective runner, averaging 6.0 yards per attempt.
Through three games, Utah only has three passing plays of thirty or more yards. Two of which came against Cal Poly, an FCS school. Now, the Utes will get a Texas Tech defense that allows only 5.5 yards per pass attempt.
I expect this to be a close game, and I expect it to be low-scoring. Under 57.5 is the pick.
#21 Michigan Wolverines (2-1) @ Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-0) | September 20 | 2:30 PM CT | Memorial Stadium
Line: Michigan -2.5 | Total: 45.5
Since knocking off Cincinnati, Nebraska has walloped the likes of Akron and Houston Christian. The Cornhuskers will see a huge step up in competition when they host Michigan this weekend.
Nebraska was able to survive Cincinnati, but Michigan will be a bigger challenge. The Bearcats had three sacks and six tackles for loss in the season opener. Michigan is quite good in the tackles for loss department. The Wolverines have 23 on the season, including 8 against Oklahoma.
Cincinnati also ran the ball effectively against Nebraska. They were able to pile up 202 rushing yards, averaging 6.7 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Michigan is top 15 in rushing yards per game with an average of 242.7.
Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood did not have his best game in his first road start at Oklahoma. Underwood went 9-of-24 passing for 124 yards in the 24-13 loss. However, I believe he is positioned to bounce back in a big way this weekend against a Nebraska team who has not been challenged through the air.
Give me Michigan -2.5.
Tulane Green Wave (3-0) @ #13 Ole Miss Rebels (3-0) | September 20 | 2:30 PM CT | Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Line: Ole Miss -12.5 | Total: 61.5
Ole Miss quarterback Austin Simmons expects to be back this weekend.
In Simmons’ absence, backup Trinidad Chambliss shined against Arkansas. Chambliss threw for a touchdown and ran for two more as the offense continues to hum.
The Ole Miss defense, however, is a different story. The Rebels gave up 526 yards of offense last week. Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green threw for 305 yards and ran for 115 more.
Ole Miss will face another dual-threat quarterback in Jake Retzlaff this week.
Retzlaff turned in his biggest performance of the season, throwing for 245 yards while rushing for 111 yards and four touchdowns.
The Green Wave should be able to hang. I am taking Tulane +12.5.
Michigan State Spartans (3-0) @ #25 USC Trojans (3-0) | September 20 | 10:00 PM CT | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Line: USC -18.5 | Total: 56.5
I was itching for a late night over last week, and this week I believe we have one. USC is off to a fast start this season at 3-0. The Trojans are ranked second nationally in points per game at 55. Quarterback Jayden Maiava is a big reason why. Maiava averages 14.1 yards per attempt, which leads the country.
The Michigan State defense is probably still licking their wounds after Boston College threw for 390 yards against them two weeks ago. That was a track meet that Michigan State was able to survive thanks to a big day from their own offense. Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles threw for four touchdowns in the thrilling double-overtime win.
USC picked off three Purdue passes last week. The most notable was this pick-six from Jamaal Jarrett that went viral.
However, the Trojans also allowed 305 yards through the air. Chiles and company should have success in this matchup, which should lead to points.
Over 56.5 is the play.
OUTTA HERE!
Clarknado Sports 
One response to “Nado’s Notions: Week 4”
[…] Last week: 4-1 (UNLV -2.5, Texas Tech/Utah under 57.5, Michigan -2.5, Tulane +12.5, Michigan State/USC over 56.5) […]
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