Season record: 28-21-2
Last week: 3-1-1 (Arkansas/Florida over 49.5, Texas A&M +3, Houston/Baylor over 58, Illinois +2, Auburn -12.5)
We bounced back after a few mediocre weeks. Big shoutout to Illinois backup quarterback John Paddock for saving the day against Minnesota last week.
Let’s keep it rolling!
Vanderbilt Commodores (2-8) @ South Carolina Gamecocks (3-6) | November 11 | 11:00 AM CT | Williams-Brice Stadium
Line: South Carolina -13.5 | Total: 58
South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler is quietly having a nice season. Rattler is completing 69.7% of his passes and averaging 8.3 yards per attempt.
I expect that to continue against a Vanderbilt defense that does not stop anyone. The Commodores have the SEC’s worst defense, allowing 435.5 yards per game.
While Vanderbilt’s defense is awful, so is South Carolina’s. The Gamecocks allow 433.6 yards per game.
I expect the South Carolina offense to have a big day, but I am not confident in their defense to stop anyone. Last week, they gave up 28 points to Jacksonville State.
Give me over 58.
Maryland Terrapins (5-4) @ Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-4) | November 11 | 11:00 AM CT | Memorial Stadium
Line: Maryland -2.5 | Total: 44.5
Things are coming unraveled in College Park as the Terrapins have lost four straight. Now they are going on the road to play Nebraska, who is coming off a loss at Michigan State.
Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa leads the Big Ten in passing yards per game at 276.2. While Tagovailoa gets it done through the air, Maryland is severely lacking when it comes to running the football. Look no further than last week against Penn State in which the Terrapins rushed for -49 yards. While 47 of those yards were sack yardage, Maryland had -2 yards on running plays over the course of the game.
Expect a challenge from the Nebraska defense who allows only 298.3 yards per game, which is 16th nationally.
Nebraska is a run-heavy offense as they run the ball 63.5% of the time. They also average 185.4 rushing yards per game.
While Maryland has been good against the run most of the season, we may have seen some cracks last week as Penn State ran for 158 yards.
Ultimately, I believe this game comes down to effort and that favors the Cornhuskers. Give me Nebraska +2.5.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-3) @ #22 Iowa Hawkeyes (7-2) | November 11 | 2:30 PM CT | Kinnick Stadium
Line: Iowa -1 | Total: 28.5
If there is a team that is going to out-Iowa, it is Rutgers. What do both teams thrive on? Running the ball and playing defense. The difference is that Rutgers actually runs the ball well.
Rutgers running back Kyle Monangai has rushed for 903 yards this season at 5.38 yards per carry. He and quarterback Gavin Wimsatt both have seven rushing touchdowns this season.
Iowa, by contrast, only has eight rushing touchdowns as a team. In conference play, the Hawkeyes average only 2.94 yards per carry.
I am taking Rutgers +1.
East Carolina Pirates (1-8) @ Florida Atlantic Owls (4-5) | November 11 | 3:00 PM CT | FAU Stadium
Line: Florida Atlantic -8 | Total: 45.5
I am going to keep this one simple; I do not believe in East Carolina’s ability to score. The Pirates average only 17.7 points per game. In conference play, that goes down to 14.2 points per game.
On the other hand, Florida Atlantic can score. Against conference opponents, the Owls average 33.2 points per game.
Furthermore, Florida Atlantic is a pass-heavy team. The Owls throw the ball 55.6% of the time. That should produce success against East Carolina, who allows 8.0 yards per attempt (107th in the country).
I am taking Florida Atlantic -8.
Cincinnati Bearcats (2-7) @ Houston Cougars (4-5) | November 11 | 6:00 PM CT | TDECU Stadium
Line: Houston -2.5 | Total: 55.5
The Cincinnati Bearcats have lost seven straight and the Houston Cougars are coming off an overtime win over Baylor.
Now, the Cougars return home where they have been quite good. Their last two home outings have been a victory over West Virginia and a close loss to Texas.
A big reason for Houston’s success has been quarterback Donovan Smith. Smith has been one of the top passers in the Big 12 this season and is second in the conference in both yards (2,303) and touchdowns (18).
Houston will be facing a Cincinnati pass defense that has struggled in Big 12 play. Big 12 opponents are averaging 8.3 yards per attempt against the Bearcats.
They will also have to deal with Houston’s receiving corps at full strength as Joseph Manjack IV returns after missing the past two games due to a concussion.
Manjack is second on the team in yards (435) and touchdowns (4).
Houston has a porous defense, allowing 446.2 yards per game in Big 12 play. However, Cincinnati has had trouble scoring. Against Big 12 opponents, they average only 18.5 points per game.
Houston -2.5 is my pick.
OUTTA HERE!
Clarknado Sports 
One response to “Nado’s Notions: Week 11”
[…] Last week: 0-5 (Vanderbilt/South Carolina over 58, Nebraska +2.5, Rutgers +1, Florida Atlantic -8, Houston -2.5) […]
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