Another college football season is upon us, but before we get into the picks, or “notions”, let’s take a look back at my past results.
2019: 36-31-2 53.6%
2020: 40-32-1 55.5%
2021: 37-29-1 56%
2022: 35-30-2 53.7%
Over the past four years, I have accumulated a record of 148-122-6, which is good for 54.7%. Now that the bookkeeping is done, let’s begin the quest towards another winning season!
Navy Midshipmen vs. #13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish | August 26 | 1:30 PM CT | Aviva Stadium
Line: Notre Dame -20.5 | Total: 50.5
Brian Newberry takes over at Navy after Ken Niumatalolo was let go after 16 seasons. Newberry has spent the past four seasons as Navy’s defensive coordinator.
The Navy quarterback position appears to be a two-man battle between Tai Lavatai and Blake Horvath. Lavatai has started 18 games, while Horvath has yet to make an appearance for Navy.
Whomever starts at quarterback, we know the offense will be a triple option attack. When it gets rolling, the Midshipmen can put up plenty of yards as they did against Notre Dame last season. Navy ran for 255 yards on 46 carries in last year’s meeting.
However, the triple option hits different in November than it does in season openers. Look at the past three season openers for Navy: a 14-7 loss to Delaware to open 2022, a 49-7 loss to open 2021, and a 55-3 loss to BYU to open 2020.
The Notre Dame defense was solid in 2022, allowing 329.3 yards per game. With a whole off-season to prepare, I like their chances in slowing Navy’s offense.
In last year’s meeting, Notre Dame scored touchdowns on five of their first six drives. However, the Irish did very little past that as they hung on for a 35-32 win. I am sure the coaching staff is reminding the team of this and putting an emphasis on finishing.
Notre Dame landed one of the biggest transfers in the country in quarterback Sam Hartman. Last season at Wake Forest, Hartman threw for 3,701 yards and 38 touchdowns despite missing two games. Hartman will look to elevate a Notre Dame passing attack that finished with 2,692 yards last season.
The Hartman effect will likely be seen immediately.
While Navy and air defense are typically synonymous, on the football field this was not the case. The Midshipmen allowed 8.6 yards per passing attempt in 2022, which was 125th in the country.
We always respect the troops on Nado’s Notions, but unfortunately, I have to take Notre Dame -20.5.
Florida Gators @ #14 Utah Utes | August 31 | 7:00 PM CT | Rice-Eccles Stadium
Line: Utah -7 | Total: 46.5
It is Utah’s turn to host as Florida heads to Rice-Eccles Stadium as part of this home-and-home series. The Utes have to be looking forward to this game after coming up short in “The Swamp” to begin last season. That is especially true for quarterback Cam Rising, who throw an interception in the final minute on second and goal from the Florida 6-yard line.
Rising is actually coming off of a torn ACL, which he suffered in their Rose Bowl loss to Penn State. Based on what Rising is saying, it appears he will be ready in time for the opener. First, he shot down a rumor that he would miss significant time.
Rising also elaborated on it more at Pac-12 Media Day.
“Just going out there and playing (in preseason camp) is going to give me confidence in it,” Rising said at Pac-12 media day. “I think going against the Utah defense is going to be a big tell for seeing how I am feeling. I will get ready for that and I am excited to go out there and go against them.”
He said his knee is “feeling great.”
Coles, Joe. “5 Storylines to Watch as Utah Opens Fall Camp.” Deseret News, 30 July 2023, http://www.deseret.com/2023/7/31/23812765/utah-utes-football-fall-camp-storylines-defending-two-time-pac-12-champs.
Rising is what makes the Utah offense go, and having him in the lineup is critical. Last season, he accounted for 3,034 passing yards and 465 rushing yards. Beyond the numbers, Rising’s toughness represents the Utah Football culture. Remember the huge hit he took in the Pac-12 Championship Game?
He was back on his feet right after.
As for the offense around Rising, he lost his favorite receiver in tight end Dalton Kincaid. Kincaid led the Utes in receptions, yards, and receiving touchdowns. However, the Utes still have good options at tight end on the roster. Brant Kuithe was off to a hot start before suffering a season-ending injury and Thomas Yassmin caught a touchdown in each of the Utes’ final three games.
At receiver, Devaughn Vele returns after posting 695 yards in 2022. The Utes also brought in Mycah Pittman from Florida State. Pittman and Rising appear to have a strong connection already.
“Cam’s my guy. When we get together, people will know we have a connection right away. … I know he’s going to want to give me the ball and that’s what he’s told me since I’ve been here. He loves my skillset and loves the fact that I like to get open, and he likes throwing to open receivers,” Pittman said.
Coles, J. (2023) Florida State transfer Mycah Pittman arrives at Utah healthy and full of confidence — and is already creating chemistry with Cam Rising, Deseret.com. Available at: https://www.deseret.com/2023/8/10/23824826/utah-football-wide-receiver-mycah-pittman (Accessed: 13 August 2023).
Utah has also been good at running the ball. The Utes were 11th nationally in rushing in 2022 with 217.6 yards per game. At the running back position, big things are expected out of Ja’Quinden Jackson.
The 227-pound sophomore ran for 531 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2022, and he will look to improve on that.
Utah’s opponent was not very good at stopping the run in 2022. Florida ranked 100th nationally allowing 175.2 rushing yards per game. In last year’s opener, the Utes ran for 230 yards against them.
Defensive tackle Gervon Dexter Sr. was the biggest difference maker on the Florida defensive line last year and he is gone. Brought in to replace him is Cam Jackson, a transfer from Memphis. Also on the Florida defensive front is viral clip sensation Desmond Watson.
Reports out of Gainesville are that Watson is getting in better shape.
“Definitely say sustaining through the game,” Watson said on what he’s looking to improve on. “Looking back on my film, I was a little inconsistent, so I want to be able to play at my highest level from first quarter to fourth quarter, so I feel like that’s the biggest thing for me.”
Marcinko, Nick. “Desmond Watson looking for sustainability in 2023.” GatorCountry.com, 12 April 2023. https://www.gatorcountry.com/feature/desmond-watson-looking-for-sustainability-in-2023/. Accessed 30 July 2023.
Credit to Watson for working to get himself into shape, but how will that play out in the elevation of Salt Lake City?
As you probably remember, former Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson went off against Utah in the last matchup. He has moved on to the NFL, and it appears former Wisconsin quarterback Graham Mertz will be taking the reins at quarterback. As Wisconsin fans know, Mertz is inconsistent and even downright erratic at times. That showed in the Florida spring game, where he completed 18 of 29 passes for 244 yards and a touchdown. While the final stats are decent, the tweet below gives an indication of how poor some of the play was.
Mertz’s struggles were magnified on the road against opponents not named Northwestern. At Northwestern, Mertz tossed six touchdowns and no interceptions; against the other four road opponents, Mertz threw for five touchdowns and five interceptions.
The Gators are fortunate to have two talented running backs in Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne. The pair combined for 1,560 yards and 16 touchdowns a season ago. However, can they be as effective without Richardson’s running threat at the quarterback position? The Gators will also be without the services of right guard O’Cyrus Torrence, who turned pro.
The Utah defense was quite good against the run down the stretch. On the season, the Utes allowed 111.4 rushing yards per game, which ranked 18th nationally.
With a shaky passing game and a vulnerable defense, the Gators could be in for a long season. I am taking Utah -7. Plus, it is a revenge game.
#21 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. South Carolina Gamecocks | September 2 | 6:30 PM CT | Bank of America Stadium
Line: North Carolina -2.5 | Total: 62
This game features two highly-touted quarterbacks in North Carolina’s Drake Maye and South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler. Both are looking to build upon what they did last year. Maye put up huge numbers with 4,321 passing yards and 38 passing touchdowns, both marks were top 5 nationally. Rattler’s season was a little more rocky, but he did finish on a high note.
South Carolina had a resurgence late in the 2022 season. The Gamecocks knocked off rivals Tennessee and South Carolina to finish the regular season and Rattler’s play was a big reason why. Rattler completed 30 of 37 passes for 438 yards and 6 touchdowns in their 63-38 win over Tennessee. He would follow that up with another strong performance against Clemson, throwing for 360 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Rattler will have his favorite target back in Antwane Wells. Wells led South Carolina in receptions (68), yards (928), and receiving touchdowns (6).
Another factor in the South Carolina passing attack figures to be tight end Trey Knox, who transferred in from Arkansas. Last year, Knox pulled in 26 catches for 296 yards and 5 touchdowns.
North Carolina will be without most of their receiving production from a season ago. The Tar Heels top two receivers, Josh Downs and Antoine Green, are off to the NFL. Downs led the Tar Heels in all major receiving categories (94 receptions, 1,029 yards, 11 receiving touchdowns), while Green finished second (43 receptions, 798 yards, 7 touchdowns).
Will the North Carolina offense go downhill with their absence?
The Tar Heels were without Downs and Green in the Holiday Bowl, which they lost to Oregon by a score of 28-27. Maye went a pedestrian 18 of 35, but did throw 3 touchdowns. JT O’Sullivan does a good job of showing the Maye’s highs and lows in that game in the video below.
On the other side of the ball, the North Carolina defense was a massive liability, and of course, I have another Drake song to throw in.
The Tar Heels allowed 30.8 points per game in 2022, which was 102nd in the country. Defensive coordinator Gene Chizik is in his second season of his second stint at North Carolina and is looking for answers. This quote from North Carolina head coach Mack Brown does not give me much confidence that things will turn around.
Mack Brown said that Chizik “missed some things” in his time away, but added that Chizik understands what he needs to catch up on.
“Offenses are spread out so much more,” Brown said. “They’re going so fast that you have to call them and you gotta go. And when you sit out for five years, you lose some of that.”
Holloway, Jeremiah. “Why UNC Expects Defensive Improvement in Gene Chizik’s Second Year.” College Sports News and Recruiting, 28 July 2023, 247sports.com/college/north-carolina/article/unc-football-gene-chizik-defensive-coordinator-213319976/amp/. Accessed 30 July 2023.
If Chizik is still adjusting to spread offenses and using tempo, this defense could be in for another long year.
Rattler and South Carolina are no easy task, either. As we saw towards the end of last year, Rattler is capable of taking over a game. Now, can the Tar Heels make him uncomfortable? The sack numbers make that seem unlikely. North Carolina ranked 120th in sacks last season with 17.
Give me South Carolina +2.5.
Boise State Broncos @ #10 Washington Huskies | September 2 | 2:30 PM CT | Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium
Line: Washington -14.5 | Total: 58.5
The Washington Huskies capped off a strong 2022 season with a victory over Texas in the Alamo Bowl. The Huskies finished 11-2 and with quarterback Michael Penix Jr returning, there is real optimism around this program.
Penix threw for 357 passing yards per game in 2022, which led the country. His two favorite targets from a season ago are back as well. Receivers Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan combined for 2,243 yards and 16 touchdowns last season.
While Washington knows what they have in that pair, the Huskies are looking for more out of Giles Jackson. Jackson contributed with 328 receiving yards in 2022, but a bigger role is expected in 2023. There is also a chance Jackson returns a kickoff for a touchdown, as he did twice in his two seasons at Michigan.
Washington coach Kalen DeBoer is confident in the speedster.
“I’m sure he’s going to hit one for us, sooner or later,” DeBoer said.
Raley, Dan. “UW Hopes to Put More Miles on Giles, Who’s Been a Spring Standout – Sports Illustrated Washington Huskies News, Analysis and More.” Sports Illustrated Washington Huskies News, Analysis and More, 17 Apr. 2023, http://www.si.com/college/washington/football/uw-hopes-to-put-more-miles-on-giles-whos-been-spring-standout. Accessed 8 Aug. 2023.
While Washington has a plethora of notable skill players, their offensive line was a major strength in 2022. The Huskies allowed the lowest sack rate last season, according to FootballOutsiders.com. Both starting tackles, Troy Fautanu and Roger Rosengarten, return.
On the other side of the ball for Washington is a veteran defense. Every starter on the Washington depth chart is either a junior or senior with the exception of redshirt cornerback Elijah Jackson. Jackson has a fair share of experience, with two starts in 2022.
Edge defender Bralen Trice leads the way. Trice is coming off a season in which he recorded nine sacks.
While Trice and company were adept at getting to the quarterback, the Huskies did show some vulnerabilities against the pass. Washington gave up 251.5 passing yards per game in 2022, which was 100th in the country.
However, Boise State does not possess the most prolific passing attack. In fact, the Broncos ran the ball at the 23rd highest rate in college football last season. On the season, Boise State only threw for 190.6 yards per game.
The passing game took another hit losing leading receiver Latrell Caples for the season.
While Boise State leans on the running game in their offense, Washington’s defense was stout against the run in 2022. The Huskies allowed only 121.2 rushing yards per game last season, which ranked 27th in the country. In non-conference games, the Huskies allowed only 80.3 rushing yards per game.
Boise State was among the nation’s best in team passing efficiency defense in 2022 as opposing quarterbacks had a passing efficiency of 109.7 against them. However, that number was aided by a schedule of poor passing teams: New Mexico, which ranked 130th nationally in passing efficiency; Tennessee-Martin, which is a FCS school; San Diego State, which ranked 111th in passing efficiency; Colorado State, which ranked 78th in passing efficiency; Nevada, which ranked 124th in passing efficiency; and Wyoming, which ranked 126th in passing efficiency.
Suffice to say, none of which compare to Washington’s passing attack.
I expect the Huskies to roll, so I will lay the points and take Washington -14.5.
OUTTA HERE!
Clarknado Sports 
2 responses to “Nado’s Notions: Week 0 & Week 1”
Keep up the great work! Go Dawgs
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