Season record: 3-3-1
Last week: 2-1-1 (Pittsburgh -6.5, Texas Tech -3, Kentucky +5.5, USC -8)
Pittsburgh squandered a 10-0 lead before falling to Tennessee in overtime, 34-27. However, things got better as Kentucky won outright and USC rolled to a rather comfortable win at Stanford.
Sitting at 50%, this is a pivotal week for me. Let’s get to the picks!
Florida State Seminoles (2-0) @ Louisville Cardinals (1-1) | September 16 | 6:30 PM CT | Cardinal Stadium
Line: Florida State -2.5| Total: 54.5
The Louisville defense is suspect. Last week the Cardinals were bailed out by errant passing from Central Florida quarterback John Rhys Plumlee. Plumlee completed only 16 of 34 passes last Friday night.
Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis showed an ability to complete tough passes in their 24-23 win over LSU on September 4. Travis had two touchdown passes with a completion percentage of 60%.
The Seminoles were held to only 3.47 yards per carry against LSU. I expect them to have more success on the ground against a Louisville defense that has allowed 5.33 yards per carry through two games.
Florida State has been much better at finishing drives than Louisville. A big part of that is converting third downs, where the Seminoles have been successful 64.7% of the time versus 36% for the Cardinals.
With an extra week off to prepare, give me Florida State -2.5.
Tulane Green Wave (2-0) @ Kansas State Wildcats (2-0) | September 17 | 2:00 PM CT | Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Line: Kansas State -14.5 | Total: 48
Kansas State and Tulane both enter this game with a record of 2-0. The Green Wave is taking a massive step up in class, though. Tulane has not played the strongest of schedules to this point with wins over UMass and Alcorn State.
I used the word massive earlier, but it is Kansas State’s diminutive running back Deuce Vaughn that makes the Wildcats’ offense go. Listed at 5’6″ and 176 pounds, Vaughn has come up big so far this season with 271 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns.
The Tulane defense has been great in the early going, allowing only 2.83 yards per play. The same goes for Kansas State which has allowed 3.64 yards per play.
Upsets happen, but I think the Wildcats are too much for Tulane here. Give me Kansas State -14.5.
#20 Ole Miss Rebels (2-0) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (1-1) | September 17 | 2:30 PM CT | Bobby Dodd Stadium
Line: Ole Miss -16.5 | Total: 61.5
Ole Miss had a bit of a slow start to the season offensively. I know this because I took the over in their game against Troy (RIP). However, the tune up against Central Arkansas was exactly what Jaxson Dart and company needed to get rolling. The Rebels rolled up 510 yards of offense against the Bears.
Speaking of starting slow, the Georgia Tech defense did that against Western Carolina. The Catamounts scored on their first two possessions of drives of 89 and 78 yards, respectively. The Yellow Jackets would settle in and only three points the rest of the way.
The Ole Miss defense has been surprisingly dominant under new defensive co-coordinators Maurice Crum and Chris Kiffin. Through two games, the Rebels have only given up 13 points.
Georgia Tech was able to overpower Western Carolina in the run game, rushing for 243 yards as a team. I do not expect them to replicate that against Ole Miss, who is allowing only 81 rushing yards per game.
I am taking Ole Miss -16.5.
As an aside, Georgia Tech coach Geoff Collins has been known to have juice.
However, the real Juice is going to be on the Ole Miss sideline. That’s Lane Kiffin’s yellow lab.
#22 Penn State Nittany Lions (2-0) @ Auburn Tigers (2-0) | September 17 | 2:30 PM CT | Jordan-Hare Stadium
Line: Penn State -3 | Total: 47.5
I do not like either quarterback in this game. Sean Clifford is back for what seems to be an eternal career at Penn State. Clifford has a nice touchdown to interception ratio of five to one, but I do not trust him. The other quarterback is TJ Finley. Finley has three interceptions through two games and sports a QBR of 52.0.
While Penn State gave up 365 passing yards to Purdue, it took Aidan O’Connell 65 passes to do it. Auburn will not throw the ball nearly that much. Instead, they will turn to running back Tank Bigsby. Auburn has run the ball 61.3% of the time this season. Penn State has held opponents to 3.6 yards per rush.
Auburn’s defensive coordinator Jeff Schmedding is putting an emphasis on not allowing big plays.
Schmedding, like Mason, is deploying a mix of zone and man coverages. The mindset last season was “top down” to avoid giving up the big play, a change from Kevin Steele’s press man style in 2020. With Schmedding’s turnover emphasis, there’s slightly more incentive — at least in practice — to take more of those risks in coverage. The Tigers will continue to use nickel packages, cross-training corners and safeties to rotate in at nickel. Donovan Kaufman is the leader there right now.
https://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/story/sports/college/auburn/2022/03/25/auburn-football-defensive-coordinator-jeff-schmedding-takeaways-spring-practice/9454703002/
Both Auburn and Penn State have done a decent job in limiting opponents. Auburn has held opponents to 4.41 yards per play while Penn State has held opponents to 4.69 yards per play.
I can see this game being a defensive struggle, so I am going under 47.5.
UT-San Antonio Roadrunners (1-1) @ #21 Texas Longhorns (1-1) | September 17 | 7:00 PM CT | Darrell K. Royal Texas Memorial Stadium
Line: Texas -12.5 | Total: 61.5
This has all the makings of a letdown game for Texas. The Longhorns played about as well as they possibly could have in their 20-19 loss to Alabama.
They did so in front of a record crowd.
Now Texas must regroup and play an in-state opponent in UT-San Antonio. This will be the first-ever meeting between the two programs.
“First of all, to quote my old boss, we’ve got to be careful of the rat poison of people telling us how good we are, which is important,” Sarkisian said, per ESPN. “A week ago, everyone told us how bad we were. Now this week, everyone wants to tell us how good we are. We’ve got to be careful to quiet the noise outside of our building and focus on us.”
https://www.gwinnettdailypost.com/arena/texas-sarkisian-like-saban-wary-of-rat-poison-from-pundits/article_a07df5b0-7e42-5596-ad88-5eafdc11b26b.html
Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian is aware of the spot, but will his team respond? Quarterback Quinn Ewers will be out and backup Hudson Card appeared to be limping in the second half against Alabama.
I like this spot for the gritty Roadrunners who have played in back-to-back overtime games. After losing to Houston in triple overtime, UT-San Antonio went on the road and defeated Army in overtime.
UT-San Antonio +12.5 is my pick.
OUTTA HERE!
Clarknado Sports 
One response to “Nado’s Notions: Week 3”
[…] Last week: 2-3 (Florida State -2.5, Kansas State -14.5, Ole Miss -16.5, Penn State/Auburn under 47.5, UT-San Antonio +12.5) […]
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