Season record: 1-0

Last week : 1-0 (Illinois/Wyoming under 46)

We were able to hang on and get this under as Illinois defeated Wyoming by a score of 38-6. I mentioned that these two teams were not proficient in throwing the ball, and they were not. Wyoming posted a measly 30 yards through the air, while Illinois fared a little better with 217 passing yards.

It was Illinois running back Chase Brown who did the heavy lifting as he ran for two touchdowns and caught another. Brown’s huge day could have been even bigger had he played in the fourth quarter. However, he did not and for that, I am thankful.

On to week two, errr, week one.

Troy Trojans @ #21 Ole Miss Rebels | September 3 | 3:00 PM CT | Vaught-Hemingway Stadium

Line: Ole Miss -22 | Total: 58

Ole Miss begins their third season under head coach Lane Kiffin. Kiffin has brought some excitement to Oxford through a myriad of tactics, whether it be his on-field or off-field shenanigans. One thing you cannot deny is that his offenses can score points. For the past two seasons, it has shown up in the opening game.

As you can see, the Rebels have done a fair share of scoring in season openers under Kiffin. While I do not like to blindly chase trends, this looks like a good indicator.

The Ole Miss offense will be replacing some key contributors, namely starting quarterback Matt Corral. Also gone are the Rebels’ top three running backs from a season ago. However, Ole Miss landed a gem via the transfer portal. Running back Zach Evans comes in from TCU after averaging 7.0 yards per carry last season.

This run by Zach Evans against Texas, his first touch of the day, is just unreal.

It’s a jet sweep and he’s running into two free defenders. Makes one miss, manages to break free of the second one, and improbably scoots past for a touchdown. https://t.co/Rv4WOlyXR2 pic.twitter.com/5l4o7XUkZS

— John Vogel (@DraftVogel) August 23, 2022

Evans is a threat to score any time he touches the ball. Paired with a playcaller like Kiffin, that makes for a scary combo.

With Corral getting a lot of headlines in 2021, it may have seemed like Ole Miss was a pass-heavy time. In actuality, the Rebels did most of their work on the ground, as they ranked 11th nationally with 217.6 rushing yards per game. While their backs from a season ago moved on, four of their five starting offensive linemen return. SEC Network’s Cole Cubelic believes the unit may be the best in the SEC.

“Mason Brooks was very successful at Western Kentucky. He’s gonna come in and contribute and help and be a part of that group right away,” Cubelic said. “For the last couple of years, that Ole Miss offensive line, for the majority of the season, has pushed people around. So yeah, I’m excited to watch that group. If you’re asking me to rank them right now, I would have a tough time not putting Ole Miss as my best offensive line in the league.”

https://www.supertalk.fm/ole-miss-has-the-best-returning-offensive-line-in-the-sec-according-to-analyst/

The Rebels’ opponent Troy showed an inability to stop the run down the stretch. In four of their final five games, the Trojans surrendered over 200 rushing yards. Ole Miss should have no problem exploiting that weakness.

As of Monday morning, Kiffin has not announced a starting starting quarterback. USC transfer Jaxson Dart is battling it out with sophomore Luke Altmyer. Both figure to see the field on Saturday, no matter who starts. The Rebels will want to give Dart and Altmyer live reps and that means both should get plenty of opportunities to score, regardless of game situation. I also expect the Troy offense to play until the final whistle under new head coach Jon Sumrall, which should help contribute to the total, so I am taking over 58.

#7 Utah Utes @ Florida Gators | September 3 | 6:00 PM CT | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium

Line: Utah -2.5 | Total: 51

The Urban Meyer Bowl. This game features two schools that were previously coached by the former Jacksonville Jaguars-turned Big Noon Kickoff analyst Urban Meyer. The two programs find themselves under totally different circumstances. Utah is coming off a Pac-12 Championship with sights on a possible CFP appearance while Florida is looking to restore itself a tumultuous season under one of Meyer’s proteges, Dan Mullen.

Utah presents a large challenge for Florida coach Billy Napier in his first game in the Swamp. The Utes enter the 2022 season in the top 10. While we can argue about the merits of preseason rankings, Utah has shown they belong. Had it not been for an epic performance by Ohio State receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, we would be talking about the defending Rose Bowl champions. Florida does not have a receiver on the roster with the talent of Smith-Njigba, who will hear his name called early in the 2023 NFL Draft.

I may show some SEC bias from time to time, but in this matchup, I cannot help but love Utah. The Utes were better in two key areas in 2021, and unless something massively changed this offseason, I expect that to play out on September 3.

The first advantage is at the quarterback position. Utah’s Cam Rising has been very solid since taking over as the starter in 2021. Rising can make plays with his arm as well as his legs as he has shown in throwing for 20 touchdowns and rushing for 6 more. On the other side is Florida’s Anthony Richardson. While his physical attributes will mesmerize many, his play has not really been up to snuff outside of a few nonconference games. Richardson’s best showing in SEC play came against LSU, throwing for three touchdowns and rushing for another, but in that performance he also threw two picks.

Richardson would finish the season with a completion percentage of 59.4%. The lack of progression as a passer is a concern, especially under Mullen. Mullen has excelled in developing quarterbacks — just ask him. From Alex Smith to Kyle Trask, there have many quarterbacks who have succeeded under Mullen. The fact that Richardson has not is worrisome.

The other advantage I see is in the trenches. Utah led the Pac-12 in rushing a season ago with 217.2 rushing yards per game in 2021. The Utes clearly knew how to dominate at the point of attack. The Gators, meanwhile, did not. When you look at some of the rushing totals they allowed, it is staggering. LSU ran for 321 yards, South Carolina ran for 284, and UCF ran for 288.

Maybe the new staff can flush out those issues, but in the first game, I have my doubts.

The Florida Gators’ defensive line unit is arguably the spot filled with the most question marks heading into the 2022 season, largely due to the new defensive scheme and a thin unit in terms of talent and depth.

https://www.si.com/college/florida/football/florida-gators-depth-chart-projection-defensive-line-2022

I am taking Utah -2.5.

Only two plays for this week. Let’s not go too crazy. There is a lot of football ahead of us!

OUTTA HERE!