Season record: 4-5

Last week: 2-3 (Army -7, Oregon/Ohio State over 63.5, Pittsburgh -3.5, Syracuse +2, Texas A&M/Colorado under 51)

Tough week, but please don’t blame me for taking Army on September 11. Then I missed the Oregon and Ohio State over by half a point. The road to improvement starts now!

UConn Huskies (0-3) @ Army Black Knights (2-0) | September 18 | 11:00 AM CT | Michie Stadium

Line: Army -33.5 | Total: 48.5

Army failed to cover against Western Kentucky, but that is okay because this week they face UConn. The Huskies have probably already checked out and the last thing their defense wants to do is defend the triple option. Army comes in averaging 298.5 rushing yards per game and who knows how many they pile up on Saturday.

The Black Knights may also find some success through the air. On the season, they have attempted only ten passes, but three have gone for touchdowns. Through three games, UConn has allowed twelve passing touchdowns.

I am expecting UConn to get blown out again. The Huskies have been outscored 94-0 against FBS opponents this season. Give me Army -33.5.

Michigan State Spartans (2-0) @ #24 Miami Hurricanes (1-1) | September 18 | 11:00 AM CT | Hard Rock Stadium

Line: Miami -6.5 | Total: 56.5

Through two weeks of action, Michigan State has been far more impressive than Miami. Michigan State has blown out both of their opponents, while Miami was blown out by Alabama and squeaked by Appalachian State.

The Hurricanes offense has struggled to generate explosive plays. Miami is averaging only 4.6 yards per play. Quarterback D’Eriq King has not been the player he has been in the past, either. King has only thrown for one touchdown and averages 6.0 yards per attempt.

Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III has shown he can take over a game. In his Michigan State debut, Walker ran for 264 yards and 4 touchdowns against Northwestern. He followed that up with 7 carries for 57 yards and a touchdown last week.

Alabama’s Brian Robinson Jr. and Appalachian State’s Camerun Peoples have enjoyed success on the ground against Miami, both averaging over five yards a carry. I like Walker to have success as well.

Michigan State +6.5 is my pick.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-0) @ Memphis Tigers (2-0) | September 18 | 3:00 PM CT | Liberty Bowl

Line: Mississippi State -3 | Total: 64

Mississippi State throws the ball at the highest rate in the country at 74.63%. Their opponent, Memphis, is perfectly balanced at 50%. Just don’t tell Mississippi State head coach Mike Leach.

Leach’s strategy of spreading the ball around figures to work well this week. Memphis is coming off of a game in which they gave up 582 passing yards. To their credit, the Tigers won the game by a score of 55-50.

I expect another shootout, so I am going over 64.

#19 Arizona State Sun Devils (2-0) @ #23 BYU Cougars (2-0) | September 18 | 9:15 PM CT | LaVell Edwards Stadium

Line: Arizona State -3.5 | Total: 51.5

BYU is off to a 2-0 start with both wins coming against Pac-12 opponents. The Cougars take on their third straight Pac-12 foe in Arizona State Saturday.

BYU has actually been outgained in yards in both games. However, their games have not been in doubt thanks in part to third down efficiency. BYU’s offense has converted roughly half of their third down attempts at 48%, while allowing opponents to convert only 27%. The Cougars have also taken care of the ball as they have no turnovers on the season.

Arizona State comes in with the better stats, but they have done it against the likes of UNLV and Southern Utah. Neither team has yet to win a game.

I will take the more battle-tested team getting points at home. Give me BYU +3.5.

OUTTA HERE!