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Nado’s Notions: Week 15

Season record: 35-28-1

Last week: 2-2 (Georgia -13, Illinois +14.5, North Carolina/Miami over 67.5, UCLA -3)

My winning percentage sits at 55% as the season comes to a close. Last week was another so-so week after UCLA failed to cover to despite leading nearly the entire game. The UCLA loss, and failure to cover, made it on Scott Van Pelt’s “Bad Beats” segment.

Skip to 1:38 mark.

Championship week. Let’s finish strong!

Pasadena, CA – December 12: Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown #8 of the USC Trojans catches pass for touchdown over defensive back Rayshad Williams #3 of the UCLA Bruins in fourth quarter of a NCAA Football game at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena on Saturday, December 12, 2020. (Photo by Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images)

Oregon Ducks (3-2) @ #13 USC Trojans (5-0) | December 18 | 7:00 PM CT | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

Line: USC -3 | Total: 62.5

USC survived a scare from UCLA last week while Oregon was out of action. However, despite finishing second in the Pac 12 North, the Ducks reach the Pac 12 Championship due to Washington not having enough players.

USC’s Kedon Slovis leads the Pac 12 in passing touchdowns and passing yards, with 15 and 1,601, respectively. Oregon’s Tyler Shough is second in both categories, with 11 touchdowns and 1,389 yards.

Slovis has a trio of talented pass catchers in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tyler Vaughans, and Drake London. St. Brown leads the trio with six touchdowns, while Vaughans and London have three each.

Oregon leads the Pac 12 is both yards per game (467) and yards per play (7.25), but have turnover issues. The Ducks have turned the ball over eleven times in five games. Their upcoming opponent, the USC Trojans, have forced 15 turnovers, which leads the Pac 12.

I am going with USC -3 and over 62.5.

AMES, IA – OCTOBER 3: Quarterback Spencer Rattler #7 of the Oklahoma Sooners throws the ball as linebacker Jake Hummel #35 of the Iowa State Cyclones puts pressure on in the first half of the play at Jack Trice Stadium on October 3, 2020 in Ames, Iowa. The Iowa State Cyclones won 37-30 over the Oklahoma Sooners. (Photo by David K Purdy/Getty Images)

#10 Oklahoma Sooners (7-2) vs #6 Iowa State Cyclones (8-2) | December 19 | 11:00 AM CT | AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX)

Line: Oklahoma -5.5 | Total: 58

These two teams met back in early October with Iowa State outlasting Oklahoma 37-30. Since that game, the Sooners have reeled off six straight, winning by an average margin of 25 points per game. Iowa State has been impressive as well and have won six of their last seven.

For the Cyclones, running back Breece Hall has been the catalyst. Hall averages 6.1 yards per carry and has scored at least one touchdown in every game.

Oklahoma’s Spencer Rattler leads the Big 12 in passing yards per game with 278, and he is doing it efficiently as he also leads the Big 12 with a passer rating of 165.7. His counterpart, Brock Purdy, narrowly trails Rattler in that category with a passer rating of 155.08. Purdy has a nice completion percentage of 69% in conference play.

This game will come down to which defense can hold up over the course of the game. Iowa State leads the Big 12 in scoring defense in conference play, allowing only 20.2 points per game. Oklahoma is fourth with 24.8 points per game allowed. Oklahoma also leads the Big 12 in rushing defense, allowing 88.1 yards per game. That should be key in slowing down Hall.

Iowa State won the first matchup in Ames, but it is hard to beat a team twice in the same season. Give me Oklahoma -5.5.

NASHVILLE, TN – DECEMBER 12: Tennessee Volunteers wide receiver Velus Jones Jr. (1) celebrates with Tennessee Volunteers wide receiver Jalin Hyatt (11) and other teammates after scoring a touchdown during a game between the Vanderbilt Commodores and Tennessee Volunteers, December 12, 2020 at Vanderbilt Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Matthew Maxey/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

#5 Texas A&M Aggies (7-1) @ Tennessee Volunteers (3-6) | December 19 | 11:00 AM CT | Neyland Stadium

Line: Texas A&M -14 | Total 51.5

There is talk of whether or not Texas A&M is deserving of a College Football Playoff spot. While the Aggies have put together a nice body of work, their season is not done. Their final game is a trip to Knoxville. It has not been the season the Volunteers expected after a 2-0 start, but you have to believe that there is a desire to finish strong as Jeremy Pruitt’s job status remains unclear.

Last week, Tennessee dismantled Vanderbilt 42-17. In the win, the Volunteers piled up 540 yards of offense. Quarterbacks Harrison Bailey and J.T. Shrout each tossed two touchdowns.

Texas A&M comes into this game off on an unscheduled bye week. In their last game, the Aggies had one of their best offensive outputs of the season with 509 yards in their 31-20 win at Auburn. 313 of those yards came on the ground.

Tennessee has been tough against the run, especially lately. In their last two games, the Volunteers have only given up 72 rushing yards. On the season, they have allowed 133 rushing yards per game.

I like the Volunteers to keep this one competitive, so give me Tennessee +14.

FAYETTEVILLE, AR – DECEMBER 12: Mac Jones #10 of the Alabama Crimson Tide throws a pass during a game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Razorback Stadium on December 12, 2020 in Fayetteville, Arkansas. The Crimson Tide defeated the Razorbacks 52-3. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide (10-0) @ #7 Florida Gators (8-2) | December 19 | 7:00 PM CT | Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)

Line: Alabama -17 | Total: 74.5

Alabama has covered in their last seven games. I expect that to continue.

Alabama -17

OUTTA HERE!

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