Season record: 33-26-1
Last week: 3-2 (Kansas State +10, Auburn +7, Tennessee +17, Iowa State -7, Clemson -22)
It looked like I was heading for another terrible week, but thankfully I closed the day strong to go 3-2. Thanks in part to a Tennessee backdoor cover.
I also have to mention my shoutout on Barstool Pick’em last week. I told Rico Bosco to take Iowa State -7, which was on Nado’s Notions. I mentioned Iowa State running back Breece Hall would have success against the West Virginia defense. Hall ran for 97 yards and a touchdown to go along with 56 receiving yards and a touchdown.
It is always nice to get some shine, but there is still work to be done. My winning percentage is now 55.8%, but I have my sights set higher. Let’s get to the picks.
#8 Georgia Bulldogs (6-2) @ Missouri Tigers (5-3) | December 12 | 11:00 AM CT | Faurot Field
Line: Georgia -13 | Total: 52.5
Georgia’s offense has flourished since turning to JT Daniels as quarterback. In the Bulldogs’ two games with Daniels under center, they have averaged 440 yards per game. I expect the success to continue against Missouri, who gave up 566 yards and 48 points to Arkansas last week.
Missouri’s offense has been rather erratic. The Tigers scored 50 against Arkansas, and 41 against Vanderbilt the week before. However, against Florida and South Carolina, only scored 17 points in each game.
Georgia has one of the best defenses in the SEC despite lapses against Florida and Mississippi State. However, they were without senior safety Richard LeCounte in those games. LeCounte is expected to be back for the Missouri game along with others.
His return should be big for the Georgia defense. The Bulldogs allow only 4.98 yards per play which leads the SEC.
Give me Georgia -13.
Illinois Fighting Illini (2-4) @ #14 Northwestern Wildcats (5-1) | December 12 | 11:00 AM CT | Ryan Field
Line: Northwestern -14.5 | Total: 43
Northwestern is a good team, but I am not sure they are a team you want to give double-digits with. The Wildcats only gain 4.36 yards per play, which is last in the Big Ten.
Northwestern is a gritty team that will rely on their defense, and not much else, to be frank. Through six games, they have allowed only 322.5 yards per game. However, Michigan State had some success running the ball against the Wildcats in their last outing. The Spartans ran for 195 yards as they handed Northwestern their only defeat of the season.
If Illinois is to have success, it is going to come through their rushing attack. The Illini have a pair of running backs in Chase Brown and Mike Epstein, who each average at least 5.6 yards per carry.
Illinois +14.5 is my pick.
#17 North Carolina Tar Heels (7-3) @ Miami Hurricanes (8-1) | December 12 | 2:30 PM CT | Hard Rock Stadium
Line: Miami -3 | Total: 67.5
Two of the best quarterbacks in the ACC square off in this matchup. North Carolina’s Sam Howell leads the ACC in both passing yards and touchdowns, with 3,129 and 26, respectively. Miami’s D’Eriq King is sixth in the ACC in passing yards with 2,334 and tied for second in passing touchdowns with 20.
I expect to see the talents of Howell and King on display Saturday night, and that should mean plenty of points. The Tar Heels have not been exactly stingy, allowing 249 passing yards per game. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes appear to be a little better in that department. Miami leads the ACC in yards per attempt allowed at 6.4. However, that may be due to level of competition. Check out the following stat lines of the more accomplished quarterbacks that Miami has faced.
I expect plenty of passing and plenty of points. Over 67.5 is my pick.
#20 USC Trojans (4-0) @ UCLA Bruins (3-2) | December 12 | 6:30 PM CT | Rose Bowl
Line: USC -3 | Total: 62
USC enters this game undefeated while UCLA has won their last two. From a statistical perspective, these teams are very similar. USC averages 424.5 yards per game, while UCLA averages 430.6 yards per game. The Trojans are allowing 356.5 yards per game and the Bruins allow 373 yards per game.
USC and UCLA have both thrived on turnovers as of late. The Trojans forced five turnovers against Utah and then three more against Washington State this past Sunday. The Bruins are +4 in the turnover margin in their last two games thanks to two turnovers a piece from both Arizona and Arizona State.
Both teams have outstanding quarterbacks. USC’s Kedon Slovis is completing 72% of his passes with 10 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. Meanwhile, UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson has thrown eight touchdowns and ran for three more. Thompson-Robinson missed two games due to contracting COVID-19, but returned to lead a game-winning drive against Arizona State last week.
USC and UCLA both get after the quarterback. UCLA leads the Pac 12 in sacks with 18 while USC is second with 12. The Trojans have had pass protection issues as they have allowed three sacks in each of their last two games.
This is a tough game to pick, so I had to look around for more information. This was a big week for UCLA Athletics. On Tuesday, it was announced the school reached a new apparel deal with Jordan Brand.
Not only that, but there was a pretty distinguished visitor at UCLA at practice this week.
Getting a speech from the great Bill Belichick the week of your biggest rival has to count for something. That something has me leaning to the Bruins. Give me UCLA +3.
OUTTA HERE!
Clarknado Sports 
One response to “Nado’s Notions: Week 14”
[…] Last week: 2-2 (Georgia -13, Illinois +14.5, North Carolina/Miami over 67.5, UCLA -3) […]
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