Season record: 27-20-1
Last week: 1-3 (Ohio State -20.5, Arkansas/LSU over 56, Pittsburgh +3.5, Oklahoma/Oklahoma State over 59)
Another tough week sees my winning percentage fall to 57% on the year. Tough beat in Bedlam not reaching the over after scoring 40 points in the first half.
It is time for me to bounce back.
#2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-0) @ #25 North Carolina Tar Heels (6-2) | November 27 | 2:30 PM CT | Kenan Stadium
Line: Notre Dame -5 | Total: 67
Notre Dame continues its quest of an undefeated season as they head to North Carolina. Quarterback Ian Book has been effective for the Irish lately, with eight touchdowns and no interceptions in his last four games. However, it is no secret that Notre Dame wants to run the football. They average 233.5 yards per game on the ground, which is 14th in the country. North Carolina is not exactly stingy when it comes to rush defense. Virginia Tech ran for 260, Florida State ran for 241, Virginia ran for 210, Duke ran for 185, and Wake Forest ran for 177.
While North Carolina has a potent offense of their own (563.4 yards per game, 43.1 points per game), they will be facing a significant test in the Notre Dame defense. The Irish only allow 304 yards per game, which is the best in the ACC.
I am taking Notre Dame -5.
Maryland Terrapins (2-1) @ #12 Indiana Hoosiers (4-1) | November 28 | 11:00 AM CT | Memorial Stadium
Line: Indiana -12 | Total: 62.5
I bet against Indiana last week and their comeback burned me. Meanwhile, Maryland hopes to get back on the field after having two straight games canceled due to COVID-19 concerns.
Indiana has seen an uptick in their offensive output as of late. Against Ohio State, the Hoosiers had a gaudy 7.31 yards per play.
This game figures to be an air show as both quarterbacks are among Big Ten leaders in yards per game. Indiana’s Michael Penix leads the conference with 312 yards per game, while Maryland’s Taulia Tagovailoa is fourth with 257 yards per game.
Both defenses are allowing their fair share of points. Indiana did shut out Michigan State (they are awful), but has given up at least 21 in every other contest. The Terrapins allow 35.3 points per game.
Give me over 62.5.
Pittsburgh Panthers (5-4) @ #4 Clemson Tigers (7-1) | November 28 | November 28 | 2:30 PM CT | Memorial Stadium
Line: Clemson -24 | Total: 55
Clemson welcomes back Trevor Lawrence after his brief absence due to COVID-19. However, I want to talk about the other quarterback in this matchup. Pitt’s Kenny Pickett has completed 56/79 passes for 614 yards in the last two games after missing some time due to injury. Pickett also ran for a touchdown in each of those games as the Panthers rolled over Florida State and Virginia Tech.
With Pickett back in the fold and a defense that allows the fewest yards per play (4.6) in the ACC, I like the Panthers to keep this game respectable. Pittsburgh +24.
Someone should also tell Dabo Swinney that his team is playing Pittsburgh, not Florida State, this weekend.
#22 Auburn Tigers (5-2) @ #1 Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0) | November 28 | 2:30 PM CT | Bryant-Denny Stadium
Line: Alabama -24.5 | Total: 62.5
Alabama must view these point spreads as challenges, as they have now covered their last four. The latest coming in a 63-3 defeat of Kentucky in which they were favored by 31.5 points.
I expect that continue as Alabama is simply superior to Auburn everywhere in this matchup. I am taking Alabama -24.5.
The last two meetings have been high scoring. In 2018, Alabama blasted Auburn 52-21, and last season Auburn won 48-45. I expect the high scoring trend to continue as well. I’m going with over 62.5 as well.
Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-5) @ Ole Miss Rebels (3-4) | November 28 | 3:00 PM CT | Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Line: Ole Miss -9.5 | Total: 67
Lane Kiffin and Mike Leach square off for the first time as coaches of Ole Miss and Mississippi State, respectively. This game is destined to be offensive. Ole Miss leads the SEC and is third nationally with 565 yards per game. Furthermore, the Rebels have scored at least 50 points in their last two games.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State’s offense showed signs of life against Georgia. Freshman quarterback Will Rogers had his best game of his career with 336 passing yards and a touchdown. I expect him to build on his recent success against Ole Miss who allows 292 passing yards per game. Oh yeah, and 41 points per game.
This sets up to be a duel between Kiffin and Leach and that means plenty of points. Over 67 is my pick.
LSU Tigers (3-3) @ #5 Texas A&M Aggies (5-1) | November 28 | 6:00 PM CT | Kyle Field
Line: Texas A&M -14 | Total: 64
After seeing the first road start of his career completely unravel, LSU’s TJ Finley bounced back to lead the Tigers to a win at Arkansas. Finley was not perfect, but he threw for two touchdowns and avoided turnovers. LSU will be counting on a similar effort as they go up against Texas A&M, who is still vying for a College Football Playoff berth.
The Texas A&M defense stifled South Carolina in their most recent outing. The Aggies held the Gamecocks to only 150 yards of offense. However, other opponents have seen success passing the ball. Against their other five opponents, the Aggies have allowed a completion percentage of 72.5% and 8.5 yards per attempt. That bodes well for a LSU offense that averages 327 passing yards per game.
Much has been made of LSU’s defensive struggles, and rightfully so. The Tigers rank 13th in the SEC in yards allowed per game with 473. However, LSU saw some positives in the win at Arkansas. The biggest being holding Arkansas to 0/10 on third downs. They will need that to continue in facing Texas A&M, who leads the country in third down conversion percentage at 62%.
Where LSU’s defense especially struggles is allowing explosive plays. LSU has given up 35 passes of 20 yards or more on the season. However, Texas A&M is not the most explosive team. The Aggies only have 16 pass plays of 20 or more yards. In the SEC, only Kentucky has fewer (11). By comparison, LSU has 25 such plays in the same amount of games.
This is a winnable game for the Tigers. Give me LSU +14.
OUTTA HERE!
Clarknado Sports 
One response to “Nado’s Notions: Week 12”
[…] Last week: 3-4 (Notre Dame -5, Maryland/Indiana over 62.5, Pittsburgh +24, Alabama -24.5, Auburn/Alabama over 62.5, Mississippi State/Ole Miss over 67, LSU +14) […]
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