Season record: 15-9-1

Last week: 3-1 (BYU -5, Clemson -27, Kentucky +6, Georgia +6.5)

After a near perfect week, my record moves to 62% on the year. The lone loss came at the hands of Alabama. Let me assure you that I will not be betting against them the rest of the season.

And now time for this week’s picks.

Illinois Fighting Illini @ #14 Wisconsin Badgers | October 23 | 7:00 PM CT | Camp Randall Stadium

Line: Wisconsin -19.5 | Total: 51

The Big Ten season gets underway on Friday night. Normally I do not like picking games with teams that I have not seen play, but I am going to make an exception here.

Last season Illinois stunned Wisconsin in a 24-23 upset. This could be a revenge spot for Wisconsin, but I like the Illini getting points here.

The Badgers lose a ton of production. Workhorse Jonathan Taylor, who had 299 carries last season, now plays for the Indianapolis Colts. Leading receiver Quintez Cephus from a season ago is also playing on Sundays. Quarterback Jack Coan is back, but he will miss time due to a broken foot. That means freshman Graham Mertz will be making his first start.

The Illinois offense, on the other hand, has an experienced quarterback in Brandon Peters. Peters did not have great numbers (55% completion percentage, 18 touchdowns, 8 interceptions), but his experience gives him an edge. So, too, will getting back his favorite receiver, Josh Imatorbhebhe. Imatorbhebhe led the Illini in both catches (33) and touchdowns (9) in 2019. Illinois also has an experienced offensive line, with four of five starters returning.

Looking back at last season, Wisconsin averaged 29 points per game while Illinois averaged 24.8 points per game. This game should be closer than the current spread. I am taking Illinois +19.5

Auburn Tigers (2-2) @ Ole Miss Rebels (1-3) | October 24 | 11:00 AM CT | Vaught-Hemingway Stadium

Line: Auburn -3 | Total: 70.5

Both quarterbacks, Bo Nix and Matt Corral, had forgettable weeks in losses last week. Nix and Corral combined to throw for nine interceptions in losses to South Carolina and Arkansas, respectively.

The “Lane train” got off track after averaging nearly 42 points per game in the first three weeks of the season. However, they are still seventh nationally averaging 540 yards per game.

The “Gus bus” has not gotten into gear in 2020. That is mostly due to the play of Bo Nix. While running back Tank Bigsby has brought some much-needed punch to the running game (6.1 yards per carry), Nix erratic play has hindered the Auburn offense. Through four games, Nix is completing only 55% of his passes.

With this game likely to be a shootout, I trust Corral over Nix. This game is also in Oxford at 11:00 am. Ole Miss +3 is my pick.

#2 Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0) @ Tennessee Volunteers (2-2) | October 24 | 2:30 PM CT | Neyland Stadium

Line: Alabama -21.5 | Total: 66

I told y’all I am not betting against Alabama again this year. If Alabama can put up 41 on Georgia and that defense, they are certainly capable of doing it against Tennessee.

The Alabama defense also proved themselves, holding Georgia scoreless in the second half. I expect them to put the clamps on the Tennessee offense as well, especially with Jarrett Guarantano at the helm. Guarantano continued to be mistake-prone as he threw two pick-sixes against Kentucky.

If you are a Tennessee fan, you might want to stop reading.

SMOKE EM IF YOU GOT EM COACH JONES #RollTIde pic.twitter.com/iQa11oN42F

— Chris Owens (@BGChrisOwens) October 20, 2018

Light ’em up, Butch! Alabama -21.5

Houston Cougars (1-1) @ Navy Midshipmen (3-2) | October 24 | 2:30 PM CT | Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium

Line: Houston -14 | Total: 55

I do not mean to disrespect the troops, but Navy just is not very good. The Midshipmen are allowing 6.47 yards per play, while only gaining 4.63 yards per play.

Houston sits at 1-1, but has a promising offense. Quarterback Clayton Tune is averaging 9.5 yards per attempt.

Houston also has shown their ability to stop the run defensively. The Cougars held a strong BYU team to only 78 rushing yards. That same BYU team ran for 301 yards against Navy.

Houston -14 is my pick.

#17 Iowa State Cyclones (3-1) @ #6 Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-0) | October 24 | 2:30 PM CT | Boone Pickens Stadium

Line: Oklahoma State -3.5 | Total: 51.5

This game features two of college football’s best running backs, Oklahoma State’s Chuba Hubbard and Iowa State’s Breece Hall. Hubbard has 339 yards and 4 touchdowns and Hall has 531 yards and 8 touchdowns. Both face significant challenges as the defenses they will see allow less than three yards per carry on the season.

With defenses keyed in on these talented running backs, it will be on the quarterbacks in this game to make a difference. Iowa State’s Brock Purdy is coming off of his best game of the season against Texas Tech. Purdy threw for 302 yards and 2 touchdowns in the 31-15 win.

Oklahoma State’s Spencer Sanders is set to return after injuring his ankle in the season opener. Freshman Shane Illingsworth has handled quarterback duties with Sanders out. He is also coming off his best game, throwing for 265 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 47-7 rout over Kansas. Two of those touchdowns went to Tylan Wallace who figures to play a big role in this game.

Where the Cowboys are truly elite is on third down. They lead the country in opposing third down conversion percentage, at only 16.3%.

At home, give me Oklahoma State -3.5.

OUTTA HERE!