Season record: 9-6-1

Last week: 4-1 (Texas -13, Alabama -17, Oklahoma State -17, Auburn/Georgia under 45, Oklahoma/Iowa State over 62.5)

I should have known better than to pick Texas. That was my only loss as I move to 59% on the year. Let’s keep it rolling with this week’s picks.

#19 Virginia Tech Hokies (2-0) @ #8 North Carolina Tar Heels (3-0) | October 10 | 11:00 AM CT | Kenan Stadium

Line: North Carolina -5 | Total: 60.5

Both Virginia Tech and North Carolina are coming off close wins. For Virginia Tech, it was a 38-31 win over Duke; for North Carolina, a 26-22 win over Boston College.

The Hokies were without a host of key players against the Blue Devils, but running back Khalil Herbert elevated his game in a big way. The transfer running back from Kansas ran for 208 yards and 2 touchdowns. Herbert also added 150 kick return yards.

Virginia Tech played without starting quarterback Hendon Hooker. His replacement, Braxton Burmeister, struggled passing the ball. Burmeister completed only 9 of 25 passes for 163 yards. However, he did rush for two touchdowns. Hooker was an effective passer in 2019, completing 61% of his passes with 13 touchdowns.

North Carolina has been getting it done with a balanced offense. Through two games, the Tar Heels have 528 passing yards and 336 rushing yards. Quarterback Sam Howell is the leader of the offense and has thrown for three touchdowns on the season. He has not been without fault, though. Howell has been picked off three times. Against Boston College, he was also sacked four times.

Another interesting tidbit below.

Sam Howell has yet to complete a pass 20+ yards downfield this season.

▪️ 0/10
▪️ 2 turnover-worthy plays pic.twitter.com/MdwKDKwMlQ

— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 5, 2020

Virginia Tech is second nationally with 13 sacks on the season. With a fully healthy defense, I expect them to put pressure on Howell and the North Carolina offense. Virginia Tech +5 is my pick.

#14 Tennessee Volunteers (2-0) @ #3 Georgia Bulldogs (2-0) | October 10 | 2:30 PM CT | Sanford Stadium

Line: Georgia -11.5 | Total: 42.5

I know Tennessee has won eight straight going back to last season, but none of those wins came against ranked opponents.

Georgia represents a big step-up in challenge for the Volunteers. The Georgia defense has been simply dominant. The Bulldogs have only allowed sixteen points through two games. They have intercepted four passes and only allowed one touchdown this season.

Georgia is improving offensively with Stetson Bennett at quarterback. Since coming off the bench against Arkansas, Bennett has completed 65% of his passes for 451 yards with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions.

With Bennett solidifying the Georgia offense, I like the Bulldogs -11.5.

Arkansas Razorbacks (1-1) @ #13 Auburn Tigers (1-1) | October 10 | 3:00 PM CT | Jordan-Hare Stadium

Line: Auburn -14 Total: 46.5

Auburn is having offensive issues, to put it mildly. In their last game against Georgia, they only had three drives of at least 40 yards or more. Auburn would finish the game with only six points as they failed to reach the endzone.

While the Arkansas defense is not elite in the way that Georgia’s is, the Hogs are playing well. After KJ Costello lit up LSU in the opening week, Arkansas held him to only one touchdown pass, while picking him off three times.

I like Arkansas to carry the momentum of the Mississippi State win into this game. Meanwhile, Auburn has to regroup after the Georgia beatdown. I think the Razorbacks keep this game close, so I am taking Arkansas +14.

Kansas State Wildcats (2-1) @ TCU Horned Frogs (1-1) | October 10 | 3:00 PM CT | Amon G. Carter Stadium

Line: TCU -9 | Total: 51

These two teams appear to be evenly matched. Both average right above 33 points per game. Kansas State allows 30.3 points per game, while TCU allows 34 points per game.

I presume the line is in TCU’s favor due to being at home and the status of Kansas State quarterback Skylar Thompson. Thompson left the Texas Tech game with an arm injury and is questionable. If Thompson is unable to go, freshman Will Howard will be the starter. Howard led two touchdown drives against Texas Tech, completing 7 of 12 passes for 173 yards. Regardless of who is at quarterback, effectiveness should not be an issue.

Give me Kansas State +9.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-1) @ Kentucky Wildcats (0-2) | October 10 | 6:30 PM CT | Kroger Field

Line: Kentucky -1.5 | Total: 58.5

Both Mississippi State and Kentucky are coming off disappointing home losses. Kentucky fell in overtime by virtue of a missed extra point. Mississippi State came back down to earth as they fell to Arkansas, 21-14.

After throwing for five touchdowns against LSU, Mississippi State quarterback KJ Costello threw for only one against Arkansas, while throwing three interceptions. Costello threw for 313 yards, but it took him 60 passes to reach it. The Arkansas defense used a zone to minimize the big plays we saw against LSU.

Kentucky possesses a strong rushing attack. The Wildcats average 276.5 rushing yards per game. It is a balanced attack with four different players getting carries. Quarterback Terry Wilson and his trio of running backs: Asim Rose, Chris Rodriguez, and Kavosiey Smoke all have run for at least one touchdown. Collectively, they average 5.9 yards per carry.

The Mississippi State defense has been very good against the run. In fact, the Bulldogs lead the nation, allowing only 1.91 yards per carry.

The “Air Raid” stumbled against Arkansas, but should regain form against Kentucky. The Wildcats were carved up through the air by Ole Miss last week. Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral averaged 11.0 yards per attempt against Kentucky. Corral had four touchdown passes as well.

Mississippi State +1.5 is my pick.

OUTTA HERE!