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Week 15 College Football Picks

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Season record: 33-29-2

Last week: 3-3 (Virginia Tech -2.5Missouri -12Michigan +8.5Kentucky -2.5Oregon State +19LSU -17)

Friday was not good to me as I went 0-2. I picked Virginia Tech because I expected their defense to continue its dominant play, however, Bryce Perkins and the Virginia offense had other ideas. A late field goal put them up 33-30 late in the game, and a defensive touchdown sealed it as the Cavaliers won 39-30. Missouri won over Arkansas 24-14, but failed to cover. Arkansas was able to hang around for most of the game despite being out with a number of players dealing with a mumps outbreak.

Saturday was a different story. I thought I was off to a good start with Michigan +8.5, but that would not last long as they were unable to keep pace with Ohio State. However, Kentucky, Oregon State, and LSU all covered. Kentucky ran all over Louisville as I expected. Lynn Bowden had 284 yards and 4 touchdowns in the 45-13 victory. Oregon State fell to Oregon by a score of 24-10. That was enough to cover, but quarterback Jake Luton was a late scratch due to a forearm injury. If Luton had played, that may have been enough for the Beavers to win. LSU completely dominated Texas A&M by a score of 50-7. LSU went up 21-0 in the first quarter and never looked back.

It is Championship Week and I am trying to put an exclamation mark on the 2019 season.

 

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Photo credit: David Stacy, Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Baylor Bears (11-1) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (11-1) | December 7 | 11:00 AM CT | AT&T Stadium | Big XII Championship

Line: Oklahoma -9 | Total: 64.5

The Big XII Championship is a rematch of the game from November that saw Oklahoma erase a 28-3 en route to a 34-31 win over Baylor.

The Oklahoma offense is lauded for what it can do, but surprisingly the defense has also been getting it done as well. While the Sooners offense leads the country in yards per game with 564.3, the defense also leads the Big XII in yards per game allowed with 336.1.

Last week, Oklahoma held Oklahoma State, who averages 33.4 points per game, to only 16. The Sooners also limited Oklahoma State’s Chuba Hubbard, the nation’s leading rusher, to 104 yards on 24 carries.

Oklahoma has been dominant on the ground in the month of November. The Sooners have averaged 275 yards rushing per game in their last four. In their last meeting with Baylor, Oklahoma ran for 228 yards.

In the first meeting, Oklahoma was without Biletnikoff Semifinalist CeeDee Lamb. Lamb leads the Sooners in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns with 50, 1,035, and 14, respectively.

I am taking Oklahoma -9 as I expect them to win in more convincing fashion than they did the first time around.

 

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Photo credit: Sean Gardner, Getty Images

Georgia Bulldogs (11-1) vs. LSU Tigers (12-0)| December 7 | 3:00 PM CT | Mercedes-Benz Stadium | SEC Championship

Line: LSU -7 | Total: 54.5

The SEC Championship will be a clash in styles as LSU has won with mostly offense while Georgia has won with mostly defense.

LSU’s offense has been simply phenomenal as they average 48.7 points per game. Quarterback Joe Burrow is torching the LSU and SEC single season record books.

Georgia gives up only 257 yards per game and 10.4 points per game. However, it is fair to say that they have not faced an offense that even resembles what LSU will put on the field Saturday. There have also been some quarterbacks who have had success throwing the ball against the Bulldogs defense. Florida’s Kyle Trask had 257 yards and 2 touchdowns, and Texas A&M’s Kellen Mond, who LSU completely embarrassed last Saturday, had 275 yards a touchdown. I expect Burrow to surpass that.

Georgia’s offense is not nearly as dynamic as LSU’s. The Bulldogs have not amassed over 400 offensive yards in a game since October. That came in their only loss of the season against South Carolina, in which they had 468 yards.

The key element is quarterback Jake Fromm. Fromm has had trouble connecting with his receivers. In each of his last four games, he has failed to complete at least fifty percent of his passes. That task will become even more difficult without his two leading receivers. Georgia’s leading receiver George Pickens will miss the first half due to a fight in the Georgia Tech game while second-leading receiver Lawrence Cager will be out due to ankle surgery.

LSU’s defense has been shaky at times, but look no further than the Texas A&M game to see what they are capable of. The Tigers held the Aggies to only 169 yards in a 50-7 victory.

But the game is in Atlanta, won’t Georgia have a home field advantage?

Child, please!

LSU -7

 

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Photo credit: Ryan M. Kelly, Getty Images

Virginia Cavaliers (9-3) vs. Clemson Tigers (12-0) | December 7 | 6:30 PM CT | Bank of America Stadium | ACC Championship

Line: Clemson -28 | Total: 55.5

Clemson has one more step as they cruise towards the College Football Playoff. Since a 21-20 win at North Carolina, the Tigers have won by an average of 41 points per game in their last seven.

Virginia, meanwhile, has won four straight themselves. Quarterback Bryce Perkins has become one of the top dual threat quarterbacks in the country. In his last three ACC games, Perkins has thrown for 947 yards and 5 touchdowns while rushing for 382 yards and 5 touchdowns.

Yes, I realize Clemson is a step up in class from the rest of the ACC. However, this is a championship game, and this point spread is quite large. I will go ahead and take Virginia +28.

Clemson (45.3 points per game) and Virginia (33.7 points per game) are also the top two scoring offenses in the ACC. I am taking over 55.5.

 

OUTTA HERE!

 

3 responses to “Week 15 College Football Picks”

  1. Hank, my sources told me that a flight is headed down to Baton Rouge to interview Ed O before the SEC Championship game

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