Season record: 25-26-2

Last week: 3-3 (Florida -7, Kentucky -10.5, Texas +7, Minnesota +3, Oklahoma -10, Arizona/Oregon over 68.5)

I got off to a hot start with Florida and Kentucky covering rather easily. Texas fell in the final seconds, but was able to cover as a seven-point underdog. Minnesota was unable to push thanks to a missed extra point. Oklahoma continues to be a thorn in my side when I pick them, as I am now 0-3 when picking them this year. Finally, the Arizona offense only mustered up six points killing any chance of hitting the over against Oregon.

Again, I am running out of time to get over .500. This is the week I do just that.

Positive vibes only…

Minnesota Gophers (9-1) @ Northwestern Wildcats (2-8) | November 23 | 11:00 AM CT | Ryan Field

Line: Minnesota -13.5 | Total: 39.5

Minnesota is coming off their first loss of the season at Iowa. The Gophers will be on the road again this week as they take on Northwestern. The Wildcats picked up their second win of the season. They scored a season-high 45 points in their win over UMass.

Just remember that UMass has the worst defense in FBS. The Minutemen give up 555 yards per game, and actually held Northwestern under that. The Wildcats had 410 yards in the win. The Minnesota defense presents a much bigger challenge, as they only allow 307.8 yards per game.

With the loss last week, who better to rally the troops than PJ Fleck?

Minnesota -13.5

Penn State Nittany Lions (9-1) @ Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0) | November 23 | 11:00 AM CT | Ohio Stadium

Line: Ohio State -18 | Total: 56.5

This is the biggest game of the Big Ten season. Ohio State looks to stay undefeated as Penn State tries to fight their way back into the College Football Playoff race.

We all know about Ohio State passing the eye test. They have handled every team they have played thus far. However, they have not had many significant challenges. The Buckeyes’ past two opponents, Maryland and Rutgers, have a combined five wins.

Penn State, unlike what Ohio State has faced so far, has a dynamic offense led by quarterback Sean Clifford. Clifford is second in the Big Ten in passing yards with 2,450 and tied for second in passing touchdowns with 22. He also has five touchdowns on the ground.

Ohio State’s defense has been getting all the love, but Penn State’s defense has been good in their own right. The Nittany Lions only allow 13.5 points per game. They are especially good against the run as they give up only 75.9 yards per game on the ground.

The Buckeyes have not been in a close game this year, but I think that changes this week.

Penn State +18

Texas A&M Aggies (7-3) @ Georgia Bulldogs (9-1) | November 23 | 2:30 PM CT | Sanford Stadium

Line: Georgia -13.5 | Total: 44

With last week’s win over Auburn, Georgia has now wrapped up the SEC East. Texas A&M has quietly won four in a row after a loss to Alabama.

Georgia has shown that they have an elite defense. The Bulldogs are second nationally in points allowed per game (10.5) and sixth nationally in yards allowed per game (267.2).

The question is can their offense play at a high level. Junior quarterback Jake Fromm has thrown five touchdowns in the past two weeks, but is not completing a high percentage of his passes. Last week against Auburn, Fromm completed only 13 of 28 passes for 110 yards. The previous week against Missouri, he was 13 of 29 for 173 yards.

Texas A&M has one of the best defenses in the SEC. The Aggies are particularly good against the pass; opposing quarterbacks are only completing 53.6% of their passes, which is twelfth nationally and second in the SEC.

I expect a spirited effort from Jimbo Fisher’s team, and that is why I am taking Texas A&M +13.5.

Arkansas Razorbacks (2-8) @ LSU Tigers (10-0) | November 23 | 6:00 PM CT | Tiger Stadium

Line: LSU -43.5 | Total: 70

Obviously, LSU is going to win this game and secure the SEC West. However, that point spread is a beast. Although the LSU offense is very capable of scoring seven touchdowns quite easily, especially against this defense, I am not sure that they care to. I would not be surprised if LSU holds a thirty-point halftime lead, but getting the cover in the second half will be difficult.

LSU has their share of injuries so they will do their best to get out of this game injury-free. That means we will not see starters in the second half. Also, you have to figure that Ed Orgeron will sympathize with Arkansas interim head coach Barry Lunney being that he was once an interim himself.

If you are looking for LSU to cover late in this game, look no further than a year ago to see you may be in trouble.

Arkansas +43.5 with a caveat that LSU will still win with ease.

Utah Utes (9-1) @ Arizona Wildcats (4-6) | November 23 | 9:00 PM CT | Arizona Stadium

Line: Utah -22.5 | Line: 57.5

Arizona is on a five-game losing streak. During that skid, they are giving up 44.6 points per game.

In the meantime, Utah is playing for a potential College Football Playoff bid. This hapless Arizona team is the perfect opponent when you are looking for style points.

If you remember last week, I had the over in the Arizona/Oregon game. Arizona only mustered up six points. They are dead to me.

Utah -22.5

OUTTA HERE!