Season record: 22-23-2

Last week: 4-1 (Purdue +2.5, Louisville +6.5, Illinois +14.5, LSU +6, Clemson -31.5)

How about that? I changed things up, and it paid off. Purdue, Illinois, and LSU all won outright as underdogs. Clemson won big and covered the 31.5 point spread. Unfortunately, Lousville kept me from a perfect weekend.

As the season winds down, I am trending towards getting over .500. We all know it is not how you start, it is how you finish.

Onward we go…

Florida Gators (8-2) @ Missouri Tigers (5-4) | November 16 | 11:00 AM CT | Memorial Stadium at Faurot Field

Line: Florida -7 | Total: 50.5

The Missouri Tigers are really after three straight losses. On the other hand, Florida is coming off of a dominant 56-0 victory over Vanderbilt.

Missouri quarterback Kelly Bryant is expected back after missing last week’s loss to Georgia. He will have to deal with a Florida defense that leads the SEC in sacks with 35.

In Florida’s eight wins this season, they have won by an average margin of 25.5.

Florida -7 is the pick.

Kentucky Wildcats (4-5) @ Vanderbilt Commodores (2-7) | November 16 | 2:30 PM CT | Vanderbilt Stadium

Line: Kentucky -10.5 | Total: 41.5

Vanderbilt, much like Missouri, is on a skid. After what was thought to be a season-saving win, and perhaps a job-saving win for head coach Derek Mason, the Commodores have been thoroughly beaten by South Carolina and Florida. In those two games, they have been outscored 80-7.

It has been an interesting season for Kentucky. They have turned to junior receiver Lynn Bowden to play quarterback after injuries to Terry Wilson and Sawyer Smith. As expected, Bowden has been much more effective as a runner. He has topped 100 rushing yards in three of the four games since taking over as starter.

Vanderbilt has had a rough season. They are last in the SEC in both total offense and total defense.

I am taking Kentucky -10.5.

Texas Longhorns (6-3) @ Iowa State Cyclones (5-4) | November 16 | 2:30 PM CT | Jack Trice Stadium

Line: Iowa State -7 | Total: 66

Iowa State had a big game comeback against Oklahoma only to fall after a failed two-point conversion. Now they have to face a re-energized Texas team. The Longhorns defeated Kansas State 27-24 last weekend. It was their first time allowing less than 30 points in a game since September.

Texas can still play its way into the Big 12 Championship game by winning out. If Tom Herman is who Texas fans think he is, he keeps them in this race.

I expect Brock Purdy to challenge the porous Texas pass defense, but this is a winnable game for the Longhorns.

Texas +7

Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Iowa Hawkeyes | November 16 | 3:00 PM CT | Kinnick Stadium

Line: Iowa -3 | Total: 44.5

PJ Fleck has brought “Row the Boat” to Minnesota and it has paid off. The Gophers are now 9-0.

You would expect a letdown after the big win over Penn State, but look at what Minnesota is playing for this weekend.

That beautiful trophy is the Floyd of Rosedale, which Minnesota and Iowa have been playing for since 1935. A win for Minnesota would likely ensure a Big Ten West title, but it would secure the Floyd of Rosedale. The Gophers have not won at Iowa since 1999.

Iowa is ranked 11th nationally in total defense, allowing 288.9 yards per game. However, they were just gashed by Wisconsin on the ground. The Badgers ran for 300 yards last week.

Minnesota has a balanced offense. Sophomore quarterback Tanner Morgan has thrown for 2,100 yards and 21 touchdowns with only 4 interceptions. As a team, the Gophers have rushed for 22 touchdowns. The rushing attack is led by Rodney Smith, who has 940 yards and 7 touchdowns.

As for the Iowa offense, Michigan State, Rutgers, and Northwestern are the only Big Ten schools with fewer points per game.

Row

The

Boat

Minnesota +3

Oklahoma Sooners (8-1) @ Baylor Bears (9-0) | November 16 | 6:30 PM CT | McLane Stadium

Line: Oklahoma -10 | Total: 67.5

Every time Oklahoma plays this season, you can expect a track meet. The Sooners lead the country in yards per game (587.3) and are in second in points per game (48.4).

Baylor is undefeated and has played some powerful offenses in Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Texas. However, the Oklahoma offense is on another level.

The Bears have held on for close wins in the past two weeks. Their past two wins are by a total of nine points.

I know that Oklahoma has actually been outscored 89-83 in their last two games, but I am going to rely on the eye test here.

Oklahoma -10

Arizona Wildcats (4-5) @ Oregon Ducks (8-1) | November 16 | 9:30 PM CT | Autzen Stadium

Line: Oregon -27 | Total: 68.5

Both Arizona and Oregon come into this game averaging at least 32 points per game. The difference is Oregon only allows 15.8 points per game, while Arizona gives up 37.3.

Arizona is no stranger to big plays. The Wildcats have 161 plays of at least 10 yards and 19 plays of at least 40 yards. Of course, they are giving up plenty of big plays as well. Opponents have 155 plays of at least 10 yards.

This is a late night Pac-12 game so things are bound to get weird.

Take the over 68.5.

OUTTA HERE!