Season record: 37-31-1

Last week: 4-1 (Nebraska +2.5, Utah -7, Georgia Tech -6, Missouri -5.5, Clemson -28)

Happy Thanksgiving! I am thankful for another opportunity to make some picks.

Almost a perfect week, but fell short with Georgia Tech. Onward to Week 13, but first, a look back.

Neither offense was able to do much last Saturday in Lincoln due to swirling wind, and even snow. In a game that featured no touchdowns, Nebraska kicker Barret Pickering made a 47-yard field goal to give the Cornhuskers the 9-6 lead with 5:13 left. Nebraska was able to hang on to secure the victory after Michigan State quarterback Rocky Lombardi’s pass fell incomplete on fourth down from the Nebraska 29-yard line.

Nebraska won outright as 2.5-point underdogs.

 

Utah went into halftime tied with Colorado, 7-7. The Utes came out of the half, and scored on their first five possessions of the second half. Utah took an overwhelming 30-7 lead with two touchdowns and three field goals. The Utah defense stood tall in the second half as they held Colorado to only 76 yards and no points.

The strong second half allowed the Utes to easily cover as 7-point favorites.

With the win, Utah clinched the Pac-12 South. Meanwhile, Colorado coach Mike MacIntyre was fired after the loss, the Buffaloes’ sixth straight.

 

Georgia Tech picked up their fourth straight win against Virginia. It was not an easy feat, as they overcame a deficit to win in overtime. It became a field goal kicking affair in the fourth quarter as Georgia Tech kicker Wesley Wells made a 48-yard field goal to give the Yellow Jacket a 27-24 lead. Virginia kicker Brian Delaney tied the game in the final seconds with a 32-yard field goal. In overtime, Wells made a 40-yard attempt, while Delaney missed from 35 yards. Georgia Tech won the game 30-27, but failed to cover as 6-point favorites.

 

Missouri simply had too much offense for Tennessee on Saturday in Knoxville. This was amplified when Tennessee starting quarterback Jarrett Guarantano was knocked out of the game with an injury in the first quarter.

Missouri racked up 484 yards of offense while Tennessee only managed a paltry 255 yards of offense. The Tigers displayed a great deal of balance, throwing for 257 yards and rushing for 227 yards.

With the 50-17 victory, Missouri easily covered as 5.5-point favorites.

 

Clemson started slow, and fell behind 6-0 in the first quarter. However, the Tigers got going and routed Duke by a final score of 35-6.

It was not a perfect game from Clemson, but they did enough to put the game away. The Tigers defense held the Blue Devils to only 262 yards and did not allow a touchdown for the second straight game.

Clemson was led offensively by quarterback Trevor Lawrence and running back Travis Etienne. Lawrence threw for 251 yards and 2 touchdowns, with no interceptions. Etienne had 81 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 9 carries.

Clemson narrowly covered as 28-point favorites.

 

Last week of the regular season, here we go.

Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Ole Miss Rebels | 6:30 PM CT | November 22 | Vaught-Hemingway Stadium

Line: Mississippi State -10.5 | Total: 58.5

Let’s get things started on Thanksgiving night with the Egg Bowl. Ole Miss won this game 31-28 last year in an upset. However, I will go ahead and say I do not see that happening this year.

Ole Miss is coming off a disappointing overtime loss at Vanderbilt. In fact, the Rebels have lost four straight going back to mid-October. Meanwhile, Mississippi State has outscored their last three opponents, excluding Alabama, 125-22, or an average of 35 points.

Ole Miss has an offense that ranks top 5 nationally, averaging 540 yards per game, but a defense that ranks among the worst in college football, giving up 489 yards per game.

While Ole Miss will look to win in a shootout, the Rebels will have their hands full with a Mississippi State defense that only allows 12.8 points per game. Additionally, the Bulldogs come into this game with 32 sacks on the season as a team. That could be trouble for Ole Miss, as they have given up 28 this season.

I understand this a big spread for a rivalry game, but this matchup heavily favors Mississippi State, so I am taking them -10.5.

 

Arkansas Razorbacks @ Missouri Tigers | 1:30 PM CT | November 23 | Memorial Stadium

Line: Missouri -23 | Total: 61.5

Another rivalry game, but I am not sure if this one has the juice of the previous one. Missouri enters this game on a three-game winning streak while Arkansas is on a three-game losing skid.

Arkansas is known for playing up against their rivals. See the Texas A&M and LSU games, where the Razorbacks fell short by a touchdown in each game. However, I do not consider that to be the case here, even though they are playing for some sort of border trophy.

Arkansas’s disastrous season is finally coming to an end, and it appears they have hit rock bottom. Not only were they defeated 52-6, but two starters were suspended for taking pictures with the Mississippi State dance team before the game. An already suspect defense will be without Kamren Curl and Ryan Pulley when they face Drew Lock, who is second in the SEC with 23 touchdown passes.

Speaking of Lock, it will be his last home game at Missouri, and I expect him to feast. Missouri -23.5 is my pick.

 

Oklahoma Sooners @ West Virginia Mountaineers | 7:00 PM CT | November 23 | Milan Puskar Stadium

Line: Oklahoma -1.5 | Total: 84

Oklahoma has been living dangerously lately. Their defense is giving up tons of yards and points. In the Sooners’ past three games, opponents have scored 46, 47, and 40.

Now they go on the road to Morgantown with Big 12 and National Championship aspirations on the line. If there is one guy I can count on to play spoiler, it is this guy.

West Virginia +1.5

 

Michigan Wolverines @ Ohio State Buckeyes | 11:00 AM CT | November 24 | Ohio Stadium

Line: Michigan -4 | Total: 56.5

Much has been made of Michigan’s inability to beat Ohio State in recent years. The Buckeyes have won six straight going back to 2012. This year, Michigan enters as the higher ranked team. Since losing to Notre Dame, the Wolverines have won ten straight, and, with the exception of the Northwestern, defeated every opponent by double digits.

Michigan has been great defensively, allowing the fewest yards per game (234.8) in the country. Their season-high in yards allowed was last week against Indiana when they allowed 385 yards. Perhaps, that may have been due to looking ahead.

The Ohio State offense presents a big test for the Michigan defense. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins leads a unit that averages 546 yards per game. Haskins has been relied on heavily, and he has delivered, throwing for 3,685 yards and 36 touchdowns this season. He also has a nice completion percentage of 69.3%.

However, you will notice these stats are inflated. Ohio State has played only two teams with winning records, Penn State (8-3) and Michigan State (6-5). The Buckeyes were held to 389 yards against Penn State, and 347 yards against Michigan State. Expect that trend to continue against Michigan.

Do we really have to talk about the Ohio State defense? They are allowing a whopping 6.48 yards since the month of October. Maryland shredded them for 535 yards, 339 coming on the ground, on their way to scoring 51 points in last week’s game. Ohio State did hold Michigan State to 274 yards, but keep in mind that Michigan held that same team to 94 yards.

My pick is Michigan -4 and that Urban Meyer quits in the third quarter.

 

Maryland Terrapins @ Penn State Nittany Lions | 2:30 PM CT | November 24 | Beaver Stadium

Line: Penn State -13.5 | Total: 53.5

Maryland is coming off of an emotional 52-51 overtime loss to Ohio State. Quite frankly, it has been a very emotional season for the Terrapins, from dealing with the offseason death of Jordan McNair to the uncertainty surrounding now former head coach D.J. Durkin.

It has been a rocky season for Penn State. The Nittany Lions had their sights on a Big Ten Championship, which they fell short of due to losses to Ohio State, Michigan State, and Michigan. However, they can still finish strong and play in a New Year’s Six Bowl.

It will be quarterback Trace McSorley’s final game after a great career as a three-year starter. McSorley’s senior campaign has not gone as expected, as he has career lows in completion percentage (53.3%), passing yards (2,054), and passing touchdowns (15).

If you have been reading this blog, you know I keep thinking Penn State will put it together. So, for a final time, I am taking Penn State -13.5.

 

LSU Tigers @ Texas A&M Aggies | 6:30 PM CT | November 24 | Kyle Field

Line: Texas A&M -2.5 | Total: 47.5

This is not your normal LSU versus Texas A&M matchup. Usually this game features an LSU running game against an overmatched Texas A&M defense. This year, the Aggies come into this game with the nation’s second best rush defense, only allowing 83 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, LSU is averaging 171 rushing yards per game, well short of past seasons’ averages in which the Tigers rushed for over 200 yards per game.

That means LSU will be relying on the right arm of quarterback Joe Burrow. Burrow has shown improvement as the season has progressed. Last week, he completed 20 of 28 passes for 307 yards and 2 touchdowns against an inferior Rice team. I expect Burrow to have continued success against Texas A&M, who gives up 261 passing yards per game. That is, if Burrow can avoid sacks. LSU has had issues in protection throughout the season, and Texas A&M has had three sacks in each of their last four games.

LSU also has an edge in the kicking game and turnover margin. LSU kicker Cole Tracy has made 88% of his field goal attempts, while Texas A&M kicker has made 69.6% of his attempts. LSU has a turnover margin of +12, while Texas A&M has a turnover margin of -8. In what figures to be a close game, these two factors will likely play a large role in the outcome.

LSU +2.5 is my pick.

 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ USC Trojans | 7:00 PM CT | November 24 | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

Line: Notre Dame -10.5 | Total: 54

For Notre Dame, a win means a berth into the College Football Playoff. For USC, a win would mean bowl eligibility while head coach Clay Helton’s job remains in the balance.

Notre Dame has not had much trouble in the month of November. The Fighting Irish have won every game this month by double digits. For the month of November, they are outgaining opponents 474 to 268 in yardage.

USC has struggled all year, as their record (5-6) indicates. However, this is a talented team. The Trojans handed Washington State their only loss back in September. If you  watched that game, you would have thought USC quarterback JT Daniels was a seasoned veteran, not a true freshman. Since then, they have suffered four losses.

Notre Dame will travel across the country to play in the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, a place they have not won in since 2012. This just a week after playing in Yankee Stadium.

My pick is USC +10.5 because I believe this team is capable of beating Notre Dame, and because I expect late season chaos. This game should deliver that.

OK, this pick really makes no sense, but just trust on me on this one.

OUTTA HERE!