Season record: 11-12-1

Last week: 2-6-1  (Buffalo -5.5, Nebraska +17, Georgia -14, West Virginia -16, Alabama -26, Northern Illinois +10, Northern Illinois/Florida State u45, Mississippi State -9.5, Texas Tech/Oklahoma State o77.5)

This was a bloodbath as I came away with only two winning picks. I will have to pick it up this week or risk becoming Clark-fade-o.

Allow me to reflect.

Buffalo dominated Rutgers to start the day. The Bulls cruised to a 35-6 lead at half and held off the Scarlet Knights to win 42-13. To make matters worse, Rutgers paid Buffalo $900,000 to play this game.

I know no one cared about this game, but when a team is as bad at Rutgers, you have to take the other side.

Some teams know how to regroup after losing to Troy, some teams do not. Nebraska was completely outclassed in Ann Arbor on Saturday. The Wolverines outgained the Cornhuskers 491 to 132 in total yards in a game they dominated from start to finish. I am not sure if Michigan is better than I thought or if Nebraska is worse, but either way, I took a huge ‘L’ on this one.

Despite Drew Lock passing for no touchdowns and three turnovers, Missouri was able to hang with Georgia for most of the game. Georgia went onto win the game 43-29. For me, it was a push thanks to a late field goal with 3:17 remaining in the game.

Will Grier threw for five touchdowns as West Virginia won handily over Kansas State, 35-6. Kansas State has now been outscored 66-16 in two games versus opponents with a pulse. Their lack of offensive firepower is sure to be a detriment in the pass-happy Big 12.

The following picks are where things took a turn for the worse.

Tua Tagovailoa put on another show this past Saturday. The sophomore passed for four touchdowns and ran for another, but Vegas was able to put the number (26) just high enough for Alabama to fail to cover.

Alabama was not perfect, but dominated once again. As for the Aggies, they came away with another moral victory since they covered the spread.

Florida State put together its most complete performance of the season, defeating Northern Illinois 37-19. The Seminoles have struggled to start the season, but Northern Illinois appears to be just what the doctor ordered as the offense got into a groove early, scoring on their first two drives of the game. Northern Illinois, a team with serious offensive issues of its own, only had 221 yards of total offense.

Due to Florida State getting it going offensively, both of my picks lost.

Kentucky came away with another big victory Saturday night. Behind a great defensive effort and the running of Benny Snell, Kentucky defeated Mississippi State 28-7. Snell rushed for 165 yards and 4 touchdowns against one of the better defenses in the Southeastern Conference. The Wildcat defense came up big as well, holding the Bulldogs to 201 yards of offense. Mississippi State came into the game averaging 312 yards a game on the ground, and were held to only 56 yards Saturday on 28 attempts.

Once again, Kentucky won outright as a heavy underdog. The ‘Cats are off this weekend, but face another big test when South Carolina comes to Lexington on September 29.

Oklahoma State took a 17-14 lead when Justice Hill scored on a 13 yard run with 10:40 remaining in the second quarter. The over was on pass at that point, but the Cowboys failed to score from that point on. Texas Tech went on to win 41-17.

This was the first time Texas Tech won in Stillwater since 2001. The Cowboys also scored the fewest points in a meeting with the Red Raiders since 2004. In that meeting, Texas Tech defeated Oklahoma State 31-15.

It is also worth nothing that Texas Tech is 3-0 since Kliff Kingsbury grew a beard.

Kliff Kingsbury

After a rough week, it is time to bounce back.

Texas Longhorns @ Kansas State Wildcats | 2:30 PM CT | September 29 | Bill Snyder Family Stadium

Line: Texas -8.5 | Total: 48.5

Texas has now won three in a row. Quarterback Sam Ehlinger’s play has played a large role in the Longhorns’ success. Ehlinger has completed 63% of his passes and accounted for 9 touchdowns during the streak. On the season, the Longhorns average over 31 points per game.

I mentioned earlier Kansas State’s losses to West Virginia and Mississippi State. The Wildcats have had a rough go thus far in the season. Kansas State is ranked 108th in total offense and 93rd in total defense. They also have a negative turnover margin at -2.

I’m going with Texas -8.5, but nothing would be more Texas than losing on the road to an inferior team.

Tennessee Volunteers @ Georgia Bulldogs | 2:30 PM CT | September 29 | Sanford Stadium

Line: Georgia -31.5 | Total: 51.5 

Georgia enters this game scoring just under 45 points per game. Despite the loss of running backs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel from a season ago, the Bulldogs continue to get it done on the ground, average 250 rushing yards per game. Georgia is 7th in the country, averaging 6.26 yards per carry. I expect to see to a healthy dose of carries by Elijah Holyfield and D’Andre Swift, which should eat up the clock.

The Tennessee offense faces an uphill battle in the Georgia defense that allows only 13.3 points per game. The Volunteers have a balanced attack that averages 398 yards per game, but Saturday in Athens will be their first true road game. The Bulldogs are coming off their game against Missouri, in which they gave up 393 yards, a season high. I look for Georgia to dial in and dominate defensively.

I am taking under 51.5. Georgia should dominate in this game, but 31.5 is too much to give up. I feel much more confident in Georgia’s ability to shut down Tennessee’s offense.

South Carolina Gamecocks @ Kentucky Wildcats | 6:30 PM CT | September 29 | Kroger Field

Line: Kentucky -1 | Total: 51

Both Kentucky and South Carolina are coming off of statement victories over conference opponents. South Carolina won on the road at Vanderbilt by a score of 37-14, and Kentucky downed Mississippi State 28-7.

Kentucky’s offense has been powered by their rushing attack. Junior running back Benny Snell leads the way for a rushing offense that averages 269 yards per game. Snell has come up big in both conference wins, rushing for 175 yards against Florida and 165 against Mississippi State. The Wildcats will be going against a Gamecock defense that gave up 271 yards on the ground against Georgia.

The South Carolina offense exploded for 534 total yards against Vanderbilt. However, they will face a more difficult task in the Kentucky defense. The Kentucky defense only gives up 280 yards per game and 13.3 points per game, good for 11th and 7th nationally, respectively.

My pick is Kentucky -1. The Wildcats’ powerful ground game and dominant defense will get it done once again.

Stanford Cardinal @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 6:30 PM CT | September 29 | Notre Dame Stadium

Line: Notre Dame -5.5 | Total: 54

Notre Dame made a change at quarterback last week, and boy, did it pay off! Junior quarterback Ian Book completed 25 of 34 passes for 325 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also ran for three more in a 56-27 victory. Book gives the Irish a passing attack they desperately craved earlier in the season.

Stanford travels to South Bend after an emotional road victory at Oregon. The Cardinal trailed the Ducks 31-21 before rallying for an improbably 38-31 victory in overtime.

The Stanford offense has relied more heavily on junior quarterback K.J. Costello and he has delivered. Costello had one of his biggest games against Oregon, passing for 327 yards, 2 touchdowns and no interceptions. Quarterback Bryce Love, however, has dealt with injuries, and has not been as dynamic in his senior campaign. Love is only averaging 4.3 yards per carry and has only 2 touchdowns thus far in the season.

Notre Dame -5.5 is my pick. Book makes Notre Dame a more complete team and that should be enough to cover against Stanford, who will be traveling across the country after a big win.

Ole Miss Rebels @ LSU Tigers | 8:15 PM CT | September 29 | Tiger Stadium

Line: LSU -11 | Total: 59.5

Much has been made of LSU’s inability to throw the ball. Quarterback Joe Burrow’s completion percentage sits at a mere 49% on the year. Burrow completed 16 of 28 passes against Louisiana Tech as his completion percentage continues to improve. Saturday will be a great opportunity as well. Ole Miss allows 315 passing yards per game. While the stats may be skewed since the Rebels have faced explosive offenses in Texas Tech and Alabama, they also gave up 382 yards through the air against Southern Illinois, a FCS school.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire also emerged as an option at running back for LSU against Louisiana Tech. The sophomore ran 20 times for 136 yards and 2 touchdowns. Edwards-Helaire and Nick Brossette give LSU a formidable 1-2 punch in the running game. They should find success against an Ole Miss defense that allows 191 rushing yards per game.

LSU’s rushing attack will also be counted upon to keep the Ole Miss offense off the field. I previously stated that Ole Miss could score with anyone before their September 15 matchup with Alabama. That was not the case as Alabama defeated them 62-7.

I do not expect the margin of victory to be as big this Saturday. The LSU defense will have to contend with an offense that averages 523 yards and 42 points per game. Ole Miss quarterback Jordan Ta’amu will look to spread it around to his talented receivers, A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, and DaMarkus Lodge. This could play right into the hands of the LSU defense which has forced multiple turnovers in every game this season.

With the 8:15 kickoff, I have to take LSU -11. It is also a good time to look back upon the last meeting between LSU and Ole Miss in Tiger Stadium.

Leonard Fournette runs wild