Season record: 38-30-2
Last week: 2-1 (North Texas -2.5, Boise State -4.5, Indiana/Ohio State under 47.5)
We made it through the season with a winning record, a winning percentage of 55.7% to be exact. Now, we look to keep that going in the postseason. With all the uncertainties around bowl games and their future, I have decided to stick with CFP games here.
Let’s get to it!
#9 Alabama Crimson Tide (10-3) @ #8 Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) | December 19 | 7:00 PM CT | Memorial Stadium
Line: Alabama -1.5 | Total: 40.5
Alabama getting into the College Football Playoff field was controversial to some after their poor performance in the SEC Championship Game. Now, the Crimson Tide heads to Norman, Oklahoma for a rematch with the Sooners.
While Alabama lost the first time around, the Crimson Tide outgained the Sooners 406 to 212 in yards. Alabama also had 11 more first downs.
The Alabama offense struggled in the aforementioned SEC Championship. Running the ball proved to be a challenge as the Crimson Tide finished with -3 rushing yards on the day. Alabama will get a boost with the return of running back Jam Miller.
As for Oklahoma, it has been a struggle offensively most of the season. While Oklahoma did put up 393 yards of offense against LSU, it was largely of off big plays. The Sooners scored on touchdowns of 45 yards and 58 yards. Outside of that, Oklahoma did not reach the endzone.
The Crimson Tide, meanwhile, does a really good job of limiting big plays. Alabama has allowed only 36 plays of 20+ yards to opponents on the season, which is good for 10th nationally.
It is hard to beat a team twice. Just ask Alabama how that went in their second meeting with Georgia.
Alabama -1.5 is the pick.
#10 Miami Hurricanes (10-2) @ #7 Texas A&M Aggies (11-1) | December 20 | 11:00 AM CT | Kyle Field
Line: Texas A&M -3 | Total: 51.5
While this is probably the best matchup of the weekend, I just was not able to muster up the confidence to make a pick here.
Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed and Miami quarterback Carson Beck have almost identical stats. Both have 25 passing touchdowns to 10 interceptions, and even both average 8.7 yards per attempt. Reed and Beck are both capable of elevating their teams, but are also prone to mistakes.
Both teams also mirror each other when it comes to getting after the quarterback. Texas A&M leads the country with 41 sacks, while Miami ranks 17th with 34.
Conversely, both teams do a good job of avoiding sacks. Miami has only allowed 11 sacks all season and Texas A&M has allowed 12.
Home field advantage could loom large, but I am not giving “The 12th Man”, the yell leaders, or any of that nonsense any props.
This game is a PASS!
#11 Tulane Green Wave (11-2) @ #6 Ole Miss Rebels (11-1) | December 20 | 2:30 PM CT | Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Line: Ole Miss -17.5 | Total: 56.5
Our second rematch of the weekend is Tulane heading to Oxford to take on Ole Miss. In the first meeting, Ole Miss took care of Tulane by a score of 45-10.
This will be Ole Miss’ first game without former head coach Lane Kiffin who is now at LSU. While Kiffin will not coach, the offensive staff will be with the Rebels for their entirety of their playoff run.
The Ole Miss offense is led by quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who has thrown for 3,016 yards and 18 touchdowns on the season. Chambliss was second in the SEC in yards per passing attempt at 9.1.
Chambliss leads an offense was third nationally in total offense at 498.1 yards per game. He is joined in the backfield by running back Kewan Lacy, who has 20 rushing touchdowns on the season.
Tulane was able to hold North Texas to only 21 points last week. However, the Green Wave were the beneficiary of three interceptions in that game. Chambliss only has three all season.
As for the Tulane offense, quarterback Jake Retzlaff had his worst passing outing of the season in the first meeting against Ole Miss. Retzlaff completed only 5 of his 17 passes. Retzlaff is a 62% passer and should fare better in the rematch. He is also a running threat with 610 rushing yards on the season.
In their last outing, Ole Miss allowed 351 yards of total offense to Mississippi State quarterback Kamario Taylor.
Give me over 56.5.
#12 James Madison Dukes (12-1) @ #5 Oregon Ducks (11-1) | December 20 | 6:30 PM CT | Autzen Stadium
Line: Oregon -21.5 | Total: 47.5
Both Oregon and James Madison have been rather dominant this season. Each team enters the College Football Playoff with only one loss. Oregon lost 30-20 to Indiana, while James Madison fell to Louisville by a score of 28-14.
For James Madison, this is a big step up in class. The Dukes only had one game against a team from a “Power Four” conference, which resulted in their only loss.
Analyst Bud Elliott said this matchup could result in a “safety issue”.
While Elliott’s sincerity is unknown, his remarks have gained buzz on X.
As for Oregon, the Ducks are a scary opponent for anyone. The offense is led by one of the most accurate passers in the country in Dante Moore. Moore is completing 72.5% of his passes, which ranks third in the country.
Moore could have more weapons at his disposal as wide receiver Dakorien Moore returned to practice this week. Dakorien Moore has missed the last four games due to injury, but still ranks third on the team in receiving yards with 443.
Both Oregon and James Madison have strong defenses. Oregon allowed only 251.6 yards per game, while James Madison allowed only 247.6 yards per game. Again, the Ducks did it in the Big Ten while James Madison has done it in the Sun Belt.
There are levels to this, and I believe Oregon is superior. After a disappointing showing in 2024, I believe Dan Lanning will have the Ducks ready to roll this time around.
Oregon -21.5 is the pick.
OUTTA HERE!
Clarknado Sports 