Season record: 22-12-1
Last week: 4-1-1 (Missouri +3, Colorado +3, Northwestern +21.5, TCU -1.5, TCU/Kansas State over 56.5, Air Force/UNLV over 65.5)
We were able to put together a few wins last week. Colorado and Northwestern pulled off upset wins, and Air Force and UNLV gave us a high-scoring affair to hit the over in that one. TCU and Kansas State also went over, but TCU was on the wrong side.
Let’s build on last week’s momentum!
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#12 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-0) @ Duke Blue Devils (4-2) | October 18 | 11:00 AM CT | Wallace Wade Stadium
Line: Duke -1.5 | Total: 61.5
The Georgia Tech has been rolling. The Yellow Jackets have scored at least 30 points and amassed at least 400 yards of offense in each of their last three games. Quarterback Haynes King has been a very efficient player, completing 71.2% of his passes. King is also Georgia Tech’s leading rusher with 440 yards.
King and the Georgia Tech offense will face a Duke defense that has shown improvement over the past two weeks. The Blue Devils held both Syracuse and California to under five yards per play. However, Syracuse had a first-time starter at quarterback and California had a true freshman under center.
On the season, the Blue Devils allow 8.3 yards per pass attempt, which is second worst in the ACC.
Last time Duke faced a running threat at quarterback, Tulane’s Jake Retzlaff ran for 111 yards and 4 touchdowns.
That’s not a recipe for stopping Haynes King. Give me Georgia Tech +1.5.
Baylor Bears (4-2) @ TCU Horned Frogs (4-2) | October 18 | 11:00 AM CT | Amon G. Carter Stadium
Line: TCU -2.5 | Total: 65.5
As I mentioned at the top, TCU fell short last week at Kansas State. This week, the Horned Frogs return home where they are unbeaten this season. Quarterback Josh Hoover has been sensational at home, where he averages 9.2 yards per attempt and has 13 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions.
This week TCU faces a Baylor defense that has been shaky. Baylor allows 403.7 yards per game, which ranks 110th in the country.
The TCU defense will have its hands full with a potent Baylor attack. Baylor averages 494 yards per game, which is ninth in the country. Baylor tight end Michael Trigg made his presence felt in their last outing against Kansas State. Trigg hauled in 8 passes for 155 yards, including these highlight-worthy plays.
This is likely another high-scoring game in the Big 12. The Horned Frogs were done in by two Kansas State defensive scores last week. I do not see that happening again. At home, I am taking TCU -2.5.
SMU Mustangs (4-2) @ Clemson Tigers (3-3) | October 18 | 2:30 PM CT | Memorial Stadium
Line: Clemson -9.5 | Total: 55.5
Don’t look now, but it looks like Clemson is getting back on track. The Tigers have won two straight by a margin of 59 points.
A big key to Clemson’s renewed success has been the play of their offense. The Tigers have averaged 496 yards per game in their last two games. Even the running game has gotten on track, as Clemson put up a season-high 226 rushing yards in their win over Boston College.
Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik has really hit his stride lately. Over the past two weeks, Klubnik has completed 44 of 54 passes for 534 yards and 5 touchdowns.
The SMU defense has really struggled against top competition this season. In two games against Baylor and TCU, the Mustangs have allowed passing 819 yards and 9 passing touchdowns.
Despite the 3-3 record, the Clemson defense has been solid. The Tigers allow only 322.3 yards per game.
Clemson -9.5 is the pick.
#4 Texas A&M Aggies (6-0) @ Arkansas Razorbacks (2-4) | October 18 | 2:30 PM CT | Donald W. Reynolds Stadium
Line: Texas A&M -7.5 | Total: 61.5
The Texas A&M defense has stepped up in recent weeks. The Aggies have held their last three opponents (Auburn, Mississippi State, and Florida) to a combined 36 points.
This week they will face a dangerous Arkansas offense with interim Bobby Petrino at the helm. The Razorbacks have scored at least 30 points in every game with the exception of the Notre Dame game.
Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green leads FBS in total yards per game with 359.7. He presents a unique challenge with his ability to run and complete difficult passes.
On the flip side, the Arkansas defense does not stop anyone. Last week’s loss to Tennessee is a perfect example, as the Razorbacks gave up 485 yards in the 34-31 setback. Yet, that was an improvement from the previous week in which they allowed 641 yards against Notre Dame.
Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed should have plenty of success against this defense. Reed averages 14.6 yards per completion on the season. Reed should be able to maintain that against an Arkansas pass defense that allows 8.2 yards per attempt, which is tied for 119th in the country.
Give me over 61.5.
UNLV Rebels (6-0) @ Boise State Broncos (4-2) | October 18 | 2:30 PM CT | Albertson’s Stadium
Line: Boise State -11.5 | Total: 62.5
UNLV was able to hold off Air Force last week to stay undefeated. Now they head to Boise as a double-digit underdog.
The Rebels offense has been really good all season. The Rebels average 6.95 yards per play, which ranks 16th nationally. Quarterback Anthony Colandrea has shown his ability as a passer and as a runner. Colandrea averages 8.8 yards per pass attempt and 5.1 yards per rush attempt.
Defensively, the Rebels have struggled to stop the run. UNLV ranks 123rd in the country against the run, allowing 189.8 rushing yards per game.
However, Ashton Jeanty ain’t walking through that door!
While UNLV is not great against the run, they continue to be opportunistic. The Rebels are second in the country with a +8 turnover margin.
Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen is not far removed from throwing four interceptions against Notre Dame. Does Madsen have more picks up his sleeve against this ball-hawking UNLV defense?
UNLV +11.5 is the pick.
OUTTA HERE!
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One response to “Nado’s Notions: Week 8”
[…] Last week: 3-2 (Georgia Tech +1.5, TCU -2.5, Clemson -9.5, Texas A&M/Arkansas over 61.5, UNLV +11.5) […]
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