Season record: 16-8
Last week: 3-2 (TCU/Arizona State over 55.5, Mississippi State +7.5, Oregon +3.5, South Carolina -6.5, BYU -6.5)
It was another winning week as Mississippi State, Oregon, and South Carolina all covered. However, the Big 12 was a thorn in my side as TCU and Arizona State fell short of the total and BYU won by only three.
Let’s do better this week!
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Wisconsin Badgers (2-2) @ #20 Michigan Wolverines (3-1) | October 4 | 11:00 AM CT | Michigan Stadium
Line: Michigan -16.5 | Total: 42.5
Despite their 2-2 record, Wisconsin leads the country in rush defense. The Badgers allow only 50 rushing yards per game. However, they have allowed 10.1 yards per passing attempt over their last two games. Their last two opponents, Alabama and Maryland, also combined for six passing touchdowns. Wisconsin lost both games.
While Wisconsin has been really good against the run, they have not seen a team that runs the ball like Michigan. The Wolverines average 6.67 yards per carry as a team.
While running has been the Wolverines’ calling card so far, freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood has the talent to break out.
At home, against Wisconsin seems like a good opportunity for that.
The Wisconsin offense, meanwhile, has struggled mightily. Against Power 5 competition, the Badgers average only 252.5 yards of offense per game.
Give me Michigan -16.5.
#14 Iowa State Cyclones (5-0) @ Cincinnati Bearcats (3-1) | October 4 | 11:00 AM CT | Nippert Stadium
Line: Cincinnati -1.5 | Total: 53.5
Cincinnati may not seem like a natural fit for the Big 12 conference. However, their recent results show this is where the Bearcats belong. On the season, Cincinnati averages a whopping 8.06 yards per play, which is third in the country.
Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby’s play has been a big reason why. Sorsby has a nice completion percentage at 69.2% along with 10 passing touchdowns.
The Cincinnati defense is also suitable for Big 12 play. Last week, they allowed 10.85 yards per play against Kansas. Just to reiterate, the Jayhawks averaged a first down per play last week.
Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht is off to a strong start this season. Becht is averaging 9.2 yards per attempt.
Feels like we are going to get plenty of points in historic Nippert Stadium this Saturday. I am taking over 53.5.
Michigan State Spartans (3-1) @ Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-1) | October 4 | 3:00 PM CT | Memorial Stadium
Line: Nebraska -11.5 | Total: 48.5
Nebraska has the best pass defense in the Big 10, while Michigan State has the worst pass defense in the Big 10. However, this may be due to their level of opposition to this point of the season. Nebraska has faced Akron, Houston Christian, and Michigan. Akron and Houston Christian are from a lower level of football, while Michigan simply did not need to pass against the Cornhuskers. Meanwhile, Michigan State has faced Boston College and USC, two of college football’s top passing teams.
Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles is coming off a strong performance at USC. Chiles threw for 3 touchdowns while averaging 9.8 yards per attempt. He also added a touchdown on the ground.
While Nebraska has grounded passing attacks thus far, they have allowed multiple rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season. Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby ran for two and Michigan’s Bryce Underwood ran for one.
Chiles’ dual threat ability will be a challenge for Nebraska. Michigan State +11.5 is the pick.
#3 Miami Hurricanes (4-0) @ #18 Florida State Seminoles (3-1) | October 4 | 6:30 PM CT | Doak Campbell Stadium
Line: Miami -4.5 | Total: 53.5
After a 3-0 start, Florida State’s undefeated season was derailed at Virginia last Friday. The Seminoles overcame a 14-0 deficit before ultimately falling in double overtime.
Florida State leads the country in total offense, averaging 600 yards per game. The Seminoles feature a rushing attack has three players that average at least five yards per carry: running backs Gavin Sawchuk and Ousmane Kromah, and quarterback Tommy Castellanos.
Miami has one of the best defenses in the country. The Hurricanes are holding opponents to only 11.5 points per game. That mark is good for ninth nationally. Miami has been tremendous at defending the run, allowing only 76.3 rushing yards per game.
Offensively, Miami is coming off a rather pedestrian game against Florida. Quarterback Carson Beck threw for only 160 yards in the 26-7 win. The running game was the focal point as the Hurricanes ran for 184 yards.
Last week, Florida State was gashed for 211 yards on the ground. The Seminoles defense showed fatigue as they were on the field for 81 plays.
This will be Miami’s first road game of the season. The new and improved Doak Campbell Stadium was not kind to Alabama in the season opener, so give me Florida State +4.5.
Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-1) @ #6 Texas A&M Aggies (4-0) | October 4 | 6:30 PM CT | Kyle Field
Line: Texas A&M -14.5 | Total: 55.5
The Texas A&M defense was dominant in their victory over Auburn last week. The Aggies held the Auburn offense to only 177 yards.
This week, they get Mississippi State, who has found a running game as of late. The Bulldogs average 257.3 rushing yards per game over their last three games. Running back Fluff Bothwell had an impressive performance against Tennessee in which he ran for 134 yards and 2 touchdowns.
While the Bulldogs were outgained 471 to 378 yards last week, Mississippi State picked off Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar twice. Both led to Mississippi State touchdowns.
Mississippi State will face another potent passing attack this week in Texas A&M. Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed averages 269 passing yards per game. Mississippi State transfer receiver Mario Craver leads the Aggies in receptions (24), receiving yards (477), and receiving touchdowns (4).
The Bulldogs will look to contain their former receiver and have done a good job of limiting plays like the one above. Mississippi State is one of seven FBS teams that have not allowed a play of 40 or more yards.
Reed has thrown an interception in each of the last two games. Mississippi State has shown an ability to take advantage of those.
The ‘dogs getting two touchdowns? Give me Mississippi State +14.5.
OUTTA HERE!
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One response to “Nado’s Notions: Week 6”
[…] Last week: 2-3 (Michigan -16.5, Iowa State/Cincinnati over 53.5, Michigan State +11.5, Florida State +4.5, Mississippi State +14.5) […]
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