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Nado’s Notions: Week 13

Season record: 32-27-1

Last week: 3-2 (Arkansas +13.5, Texas/Arkansas over 57.5, LSU -4.5, Baylor -2.5, Arizona State +9)

It was not a bad week for my picks, but as a fan of the LSU Tigers; it was a disaster. LSU not covering was the least of my worries as they fell in “The Swamp”.

Whatever, we are moving on.

CHAMPAIGN, ILLINOIS – NOVEMBER 16: Josh McCray #6 of the Illinois Fighting Illini runs the ball against Jaylen Thompson #16 of the Michigan State Spartans at Memorial Stadium on November 16, 2024 in Champaign, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

#25 Illinois Illini (7-3) @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-4) | November 23 | 11:00 AM CT | SHI Stadium

Line: Illinois -1 | Total: 48

Rutgers is usually a simple team to figure out. The Scarlet Knights typically run the ball and play good defense. While running back Kyle Monangai has done a pretty good job at the former, the defense has failed at the latter.

Rutgers is 90th in the country in total defense, allowing 389.4 yards per game. In conference play, it becomes even worse, as the Scarlet Knights are allowing 429.4 yards to Big Ten opponents.

The Illinois offense has been solid with quarterback Luke Altmyer at the helm. The junior quarterback has thrown for 18 touchdowns and only three interceptions on the season. The Illini has also gotten a boost from running back Josh McCray. McCray is averaging 8.31 yards per carry over his last two games. In his last outing, he also ran for three touchdowns.

I am taking Illinois -1.

ATLANTA, GEORGIA – NOVEMBER 9: Cam Ward #1 of the Miami Hurricanes passes during the first quarter against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Bobby Dodd Stadium on November 9, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-6) @ #8 Miami Hurricanes (9-1) | November 23 | 11:00 AM CT | Hard Rock Stadium

Line: Miami -24 | Total: 64.5

You can find Wake Forest near the bottom of FBS in terms of total defense. The Demon Deacons are giving up 437.9 yards per game, which ranks 119th nationally.

Now, they are taking on the top scoring offense in the country in Miami. The Hurricanes average 45 points per game.

While the Demon Deacons do not play much defense, their offense has been rather solid. Wake Forest averages 393.7 yards per game.

Meanwhile, the Miami defense has given up plenty of points in ACC play. The Hurricanes are allowing 31.7 points per game to conference opponents.

Give me over 64.5.

TEMPE, ARIZONA – NOVEMBER 09: Running back RJ Harvey #7 of the UCF Knights scores a touchdown during the game against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Sun Devil Stadium on November 09, 2024 in Tempe, Arizona. The Sun Devils defeated the Knights 35-31. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images)

UCF Knights (4-6) @ West Virginia Mountaineers (5-5) | November 23 | 2:30 PM CT | Milan Puskar Stadium

Line: UCF -3 | Total: 64

UCF is home to the Big 12’s best offense in terms of yards per game. The Knights average 464.6 yards per game. Despite having to shuffle quarterbacks over the course of the season, the UCF has remained potent. Running back RJ Harvey is a big reason why. Harvey has rushed for 1,328 yards and 19 touchdowns on the season.

Harvey figures to have success this week against the West Virginia defense. The Mountaineers gave up 183 yards on the ground against Baylor last week.

While Milan Puskar is typically a home field advantage for the Mountaineers, that has not been the case lately. West Virginia has lost their last three at home by a combined 53 points.

I am taking UCF -3.

TEMPE, ARIZONA – NOVEMBER 09: Quarterback Sam Leavitt #10 of the Arizona State Sun Devils passes during the first half against the UCF Knights at Sun Devil Stadium on November 09, 2024 in Tempe, Arizona. The Sun Devils defeated the Knights 35-31. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images)

#14 BYU Cougars (9-1) @ #21 Arizona State Sun Devils (8-2) | November 23 | 2:30 PM CT | Mountain America Stadium

Line: Arizona State -3 | Total: 48.5

If you have followed Arizona State football this season, you are familiar with running back Cam Skattebo. Skattebo has been a star for the Sun Devils, but he has been hobbled in recent weeks. He returned to the lineup last week, but was held to only 2.92 yards per carry.

However, that has provided an opportunity for quarterback Sam Leavitt to show what he can do. Leavitt has thrown for three touchdowns in each of his last two games as Arizona State remains in the hunt for the Big 12 Championship.

While Leavitt is heating up for Arizona State, BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff has not been as effective as of late. Retzlaff is only completing 54.1% of his passes over his last two games, with only one touchdown pass over that span.

It will not get any easier for Retzlaff as he faces a tough Arizona State pass defense. The Sun Devils are limiting opposing quarterbacks to only 6.3 yards per attempt, which is 27th in the country.

Arizona State -3 is my pick.

OUTTA HERE!

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