Season record: 29-25-1
Last week: 4-1 (Georgia -2.5, Kansas +3, South Carolina -3.5, Arizona State -3, Washington State -20.5)
It was a strong week as Kansas won outright, South Carolina dominated, and Arizona State and Washington State covered by narrow margins. Georgia, however, did not cover. That is a reminder I can always do better.
Let’s strive for perfection this week!
#3 Texas Longhorns (8-1) @ Arkansas Razorbacks (5-4) | November 16 | 11:00 AM CT | Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
Line: Texas -13.5 | Total: 57.5
Texas is on the verge of an appearance in the SEC Championship in their first year in the conference. On the other hand, Arkansas is trying to salvage their season and get to a bowl game.
Last time out, Arkansas was routed at the hands of Ole Miss by a score of 63-31. The Razorbacks defense had no answers as the Rebels piled up 694 yards of offense. They will get another big test in the Texas offense which averages 465.2 yards per game, good for ninth in the country.
While it comes as no surprise that Texas is among the best offenses in the country, Arkansas also ranks among the nation’s best offenses. On the season, the Razorbacks average 6.84 yards per play, which is second in the SEC.
The Texas defense sits atop the conference, allowing only 251 yards per game. However, the Longhorns have not faced many good offenses. Here are their previous opponents and where they rank nationally in offensive yards per game: Colorado State (91), Michigan (130), UTSA (39), Louisiana-Monroe (126), Mississippi State (71), Oklahoma (117), Georgia (50), Vanderbilt (112), and Florida (73).
The Arkansas offense gets a boost as both quarterback Taylen Green and running back Ja’Quinden Jackson are good to go coming off the bye week.
Where is Spencer Farley? Because we are calling the Hogs! Give me Arkansas +13.5 and over 57.5.
#22 LSU Tigers (6-3) @ Florida Gators (4-5) | November 16 | 2:30 PM CT | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Line: LSU -4.5 | Total: 54.5
After getting throttled by Alabama, everyone has given up on LSU. Everyone, including Louisiana’s own governor, is now prodding at the Tigers. Based on recent events, Louisiana’s governor may find a future in that line of work.
Now, back to the game at hand. LSU heads to Gainesville as they cling to what is left of their dwindling SEC Championship hopes. The LSU defense, which had shown improvements, has shown vulnerabilities against running quarterbacks in consecutive games. First, it was Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed, who ran for 62 yards and three touchdowns. Alabama’s Jalen Milroe followed that up with a 185-yard, four-touchdown performance.
Clearly, LSU cannot handle running quarterbacks at the moment. Florida quarterback DJ Lagway is working back from a hamstring injury and was held out of their game against Texas.
The Florida offense has not had much success in the past two weeks. The Gators averaged only 278.5 yards per game in losses to Georgia and Texas.
With Lagway’s status, his legs do not figure to be much of a factor in this game. However, some should be expected, whether it comes from Lagway or elsewhere.
Now, on the other side of the ball, LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is looking to get back on track after struggling in recent weeks. Nussmeier has been picked off five times in the past two games. However, he remains one of the SEC’s top passers with 299.8 passing yards per game in conference play.
The Gators defense presents a good opportunity for Nussmeier and the LSU passing attack. Over the past two games, Florida is allowing just over 9.0 yards per attempt.
I am taking LSU -4.5.
Baylor Bears (5-4) @ West Virginia Mountaineers (5-4) | November 16 | 3:00 PM CT | Milan Puskar Stadium
Line: Baylor -2.5 | Total: 59.5
Baylor’s in-season turnaround has been one of the most overlooked storylines of the season. The Bears were left for dead after a 2-4 start, then they reeled off three straight wins. In the month of October, Baylor led all Power Four programs with 7.65 yards per play. They kept the momentum going with a 37-34 win over TCU.
The explosive Baylor offense will get a crack at a West Virginia defense that really struggled against the pass. The Mountaineers are allowing 9.1 yards per attempt on the season, which is 132nd in the country.
The Baylor defense is not the stiffest, either. However, the Bears show up on third downs. Opponents are successful on 34.09% of third down attempts. That mark, coincidentally, ranks 34th in the country.
I am taking Baylor -2.5.
Arizona State Sun Devils (7-2) @ #16 Kansas State Wildcats (7-2) | November 16 | 6:00 PM CT | Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Line: Kansas State -9 | Total: 50.5
Last week, Arizona State was without running back Cam Skattebo. In Skattebo’s absence, it was quarterback Sam Leavitt who came up big with three passing touchdowns.
Last week, Arizona State wide receiver Jordyn Tyson showed off what he can do with this grab.
Tyson also caught two touchdowns, as the Sun Devils always seem to find a way. Now, Skattebo is expected to return to action.
Skattebo leads the team in rushing with 1,001 yards and is second on the team in receiving with 404 yards.
For Kansas State, it also starts with their ground game. The Wildcats average 208.3 rushing yards per game, which ranks 19th in the country. However, we saw Houston slow down their rushing attack as Kansas State had only 89 rushing yards in their 24-19 loss.
Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson has also had his share of ups and downs. In their two losses, Johnson averages a mere 5.5 yards per pass attempt with one touchdown and three interceptions.
Arizona State has shown well against the pass this season, allowing only 6.3 yards per attempt. The Sun Devils also have picked off a pass in their last three games, including this one which was returned for a touchdown by Laterrance Welch.
Just like Welch, I am running it back with the Sun Devils. I am taking Arizona State +9.
OUTTA HERE!
Clarknado Sports 