Season record: 5-9
Last week: 3-2 (Arizona State -1.5, LSU -7, Washington State +4.5, Vanderbilt -10.5, UTSA/Texas over 53.5)
I had my first winning week of the season, but record is still well below .500 and there is plenty of work to do.
Let’s get to the picks!
Florida Gators (1-2) @ Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-2) | September 21 | 11:00 AM CT | Davis Wade Stadium
Line: Florida -6 | Total: 58.5
The vibes in Gainesville have to be an all-time low. The Gators are 1-2 and head coach Billy Napier’s job seems to be in jeopardy.
For Mississippi State, things are no better. The Bulldogs have lost back-to-back games. Most recently, they suffered an embarrassing loss at the hands of Toledo.
So, this game comes down to which team can bounce back. Can Napier right his ship or will it be first-year coach Jeff Lebby?
Signs may actually be more encouraging for the Bulldogs. Quarterback Blake Shapen has accumulated nice numbers so far this season. Shapen has completed 70.1% of his passes thus far into the season, with seven touchdowns and only one interception.
The Florida defense has been putrid. The Gators are allowing 10.6 yards per pass, which ranks 128th in the nation.
Why is this team favored on the road? Give me Mississippi State +6.
Charlotte 49ers (1-2) @ Indiana Hoosiers (3-0) | September 21 | 11:00 AM CT | Memorial Stadium
Line: Indiana -28 | Total: 49
Back in the opening week of the season, I was cautious of Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti’s bravado. However, the Hoosiers have backed up his big talk. Indiana has outscored opponents 150-23 so far this season.
Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke has been nearly flawless. Last week against UCLA, Rourke had his most impressive performance as a Hoosier. He completed 25 of 33 passes for 307 yards and four touchdowns.
For Charlotte, they will turn to third-string quarterback Trexler Ivey. Ivey posted nice numbers in limited action, completing 11 of 12 passes for 142 yards and two touchdowns.
Ivey is in for a tougher test this week against an Indiana defense that allows only 3.36 yards per play. That mark is tied for third in the country.
I expect the dominance to continue in Bloomington, so I will take Indiana -28.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-0) @ Virginia Tech Hokies (2-1) | September 21 | 2:30 PM CT | Lane Stadium
Line: Virginia Tech -3.5 | Total: 44.5
Rutgers has a clear identity as a rushing offense. The Scarlet Knights average 307 yards per game rushing, which ranks fourth in the country. Running back Kyle Monangai is second in the country in rushing yards per game at 186.5.
Monangai and company will face a Virginia Tech defense that ranks 114th in the country against the run. The Hokies are allowing 190.3 rushing yards per game.
The Rutgers defense has been stingy, albeit against inferior competition. The Scarlet Knights have only allowed 24 points in two games. They have been especially tough against the pass, limiting opponents to only 4.5 yards per attempt.
Virginia Tech quarterback Kyron Drones came into the season with high expectations. While the Hokies have won two in a row, Drones’ passing numbers are not exactly awe-inspiring. Drones is averaging 6.5 yards per attempt in wins over Marshall and Old Dominion.
Keep chopping! Rutgers +3.5
Georgia Tech (3-1) @ #19 Louisville Cardinals (2-0) | September 21 | 2:30 PM CT | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Line: Louisville -10.5 | Total: 57.5
Louisville’s schedule could not have started much easier with Austin Peay and Jacksonville State. The Cardinals have outscored them by a combined 111-14.
Offensively, Louisville has averaged a staggering 590.5 yards per game offensively. Quarterback Tyler Shough is averaging 10.2 yards per attempt, while running backs Isaac Brown and Duke Watson are averaging 12.77 and 13.7 yards per carry, respectively.
Expect things to get more difficult, but not too much. Georgia Tech is allowing 403 yards per game against conference opponents. In two games, opposing ACC quarterbacks are averaging 7.9 yards per attempt.
The Louisville defense can expect a significant step up in challenge. Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King is completing 76.4% of his passes. King has accounted for nine touchdowns on the season, with six passing and three more rushing.
I expect a high-scoring affair, so I will take over 57.5.
Arizona State Sun Devils (3-0) @ Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-1) | September 21 | 2:30 PM CT | Jones AT&T Stadium
Line: Texas Tech -3 | Total: 59.5
Texas Tech has a high-powered offense. The Red Raiders average 538.7 yards per game on the season.
What is the key to stopping a high-powered offense? Keeping them off the field.
So far this season, Arizona State has been able to do just that. The Sun Devils are possessing the ball 59.75% of the time this season, which is seventh best in the country. A big part of that success is running back Cam Skattebo. Skattebo is seventh in the country in rushing yards per game at 124.33.
That success should continue against a Texas Tech defense that allows 5.5 yards per rush this season.
Quarterback Sam Leavitt has also been impressive in his own right. Leavitt has thrown for 573 yards and rushed for 155 yards.
These guys are bought in and it shows.
Arizona State +3 is my pick.
OUTTA HERE!
Clarknado Sports 