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Nado’s Notions: Week 3

Season record: 2-7

Last week: 2-3 (Michigan +7.5, Army +4, Oklahoma -29, Virginia +2.5, Mississippi State/Arizona State over 59.5)

Another rough week began with Michigan getting housed in the Big House. Thankfully, Army and Virginia came through, but that was all.

Army won outright and shout out to holder Matthew Rhodes for scoring on this fake field goal.

With two weeks under my belt, it is time to get to winning.

TEMPE, ARIZONA – SEPTEMBER 07: Running back Cam Skattebo #4 of the Arizona State Sun Devils runs during the second half against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Mountain America Stadium on September 07, 2024 in Tempe, Arizona. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images)

Arizona State Sun Devils (2-0) @ Texas State Bobcats (2-0) | September 12 | 6:30 PM CT | Bobcat Stadium

Line: Arizona State -1.5 | Total: 59.5

Texas State has been great at limiting opponents to 2.25 yards per carry on the season. No disrespect to Lamar and UTSA, but they cannot run the ball the way Arizona State does.

Sun Devils running back Cam Skattebo had 262 yards on 33 carries against Mississippi State last week. Skattebo run through Bulldogs defenders all night in Tempe.

The Arizona State defense has shown well so far, limiting opponents to 205 yards per game.

Give me Arizona State -1.5.

BATON ROUGE, LOUISIANA – SEPTEMBER 7: Zavion Thomas #0 of the LSU Tigers attempts a stiff arm during the game against the Nicholls State Colonels at LSU Tiger Stadium on September 7, 2024 in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. (Photo by LSU Athletics/University Images via Getty Images)

#16 LSU Tigers (1-1) @ South Carolina Gamecocks (2-0) | September 14 | 11:00 AM CT | Williams-Brice Stadium

Line: LSU -7 | Total: 50.5

As you may know, I am an LSU fan, which is why I try to avoid picking their games. However, this week I cannot resist.

South Carolina is 2-0 and riding high after beating Kentucky by a score of 31-6. While the score is impressive, the Gamecocks only amassed 252 yards of offense. The week before is not much better as South Carolina gained 288 yards against Old Dominion.

While LSU’s rushing attack has been far from ideal, the Tigers still have a potent offense. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is tied for the nation’s lead with eight touchdown passes.

South Carolina has posted nice defensive numbers, but the Gamecocks are in for a much tougher test this week.

LSU -7 is my pick.

PULLMAN, WA – AUGUST 31: Washington State Cougars quarterback John Mateer (10) runs the ball, avoiding a tackle during the game between the Portland State Vikings and the Washington State Cougars on August 31, 2024, at Martin Stadium in Pullman, WA. (Photo by Oliver McKenna/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Washington State Cougars (2-0) @ Washington Huskies (2-0) | September 14 | 2:30 PM CT | Lumen Field

Line: Washington -4.5 | Total: 55.5

Washington State quarterback John Mateer is among the nation’s leading rushers, averaging 10.96 yards per carry. He is joined in the backfield by running back Wayshawn Parker, who is averaging 8.68 yards per carry himself.

Mateer has also shown ability to pass. In the opener, he tossed five touchdowns against Portland State.

Washington quarterback Will Rogers is off to a hot start. Rogers has a stellar 9.8 yards per attempt and five touchdown passes through two games.

However, Washington State displayed a strong effort against Texas Tech and Behren Morton last week. The Cougars held Morton to only 5.6 yards per attempt and picked him off twice.

I am going with Washington State +4.5. Long live the Pac-12!

NASHVILLE, TN – SEPTEMBER 07: Vanderbilt Commodores quarterback Diego Pavia (2) throws a pass during a game between the Vanderbilt Commodores and Alcorn State Braves, September 7, 2024 at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Matthew Maxey/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Vanderbilt Commodores (2-0) @ Georgia State Panthers (1-1) | September 14 | 6:00 PM CT | Center Parc Stadium

Line: Vanderbilt -10.5 | Total: 46.5

Vanderbilt is not a double-digit favorite very often. However, we cannot discount the effect of quarterback Diego Pavia. Pavia has brought life to the Vanderbilt program and he has been quite efficient. He is completing 75.9% of his passes and has rushed for 155 yards and two touchdowns this season.

Georgia State had trouble corraling Georgia Tech’s ground game. The Yellow Jackets ran for 225 yards on 34 carries in that meeting.

The Georgia State offense has fared a little better, averaging 375.5 yards per game. That has come at the hands of weak competition in Chattanooga, an FCS opponent, and Georgia Tech, who just gave up 515 yards to Syracuse.

The Commodores are 2-0 and riding high. I expect that to continue, at least until SEC play. Vanderbilt -10.5 is my pick.

ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN – SEPTEMBER 7: Jahdae Barron #7 of the Texas Longhorns celebrates at Michigan Stadium on September 7, 2024 in Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Photo by Caten Hyde /The University of Texas Athletics/University Images via Getty Images)

UTSA Road Runners (1-1) @ #2 Texas Longhorns (2-0) | September 14 | 6:00 PM CT | Darrell K. Royal Memorial Stadium

Line: Texas -35 | Total: 53.5

Texas had one of the biggest wins of last weekend as they thrashed Michigan by a score of 31-12. The Longhorns came out hot as they score on four of their first five drives of the game. The lone non-scoring drive had a touchdown negated on a holding call and a missed field goal.

The Texas defense held Michigan to 286 yards of offense, most of which came in garbage time.

Speaking of garbage time, that presents an opportunity for famed backup quarterback Arch Manning to get in. Last time Manning saw action, he completed five of six passes with a touchdown against Colorado State.

While UTSA does not have the most potent offense, the Roadrunners do put the ball in the air. UTSA passes the ball at the 18th highest rate in the country, at 59.75%. If Texas overlooks them, we could see a few scoring opportunities.

This is a huge spread, so I will not take a side, but I will take over 53.5.

OUTTA HERE!

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