Season record: 25-20-1
Last week: 2-4 (Houston/Kansas State over 59.5, Mississippi State/Auburn under 43.5, UT-San Antonio -18.5, Rice +10.5, UCLA -17, North Carolina -11)
We ended the month of October on a sour note, but we still sit at 55.4% on the season. I have to do better as we enter the final month of the regular season. First, let’s take a look at how things unfolded last Saturday.
Kansas State put up 41, but unfortunately, held Houston to 0 points. Mississippi State and Auburn gave us a mild sweat, but we got the win as they fell just short of the total. Then the rest of the day went a little haywire.
UT-San Antonio won comfortably, but unfortunately did not cover. The Roadrunners would, of course, be featured on Scott Van Pelt’s ‘Bad Beats’.
Rice covered, but UCLA did not due to a late Colorado touchdown and North Carolina fell outright.
It is a new month, so it is time to get back on track.
Arkansas Razorbacks (2-6) @ Florida Gators (5-3) | November 4 | 11:00 AM CT | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Line: Florida -6 | Total: 49.5
Florida quarterback Graham Mertz is quietly having a really good year. Mertz has completed 75.9% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. He has played a key role in the Florida offense that averages 28 points per game.
Arkansas’s passing defense numbers look respectable at 201.4 yards per game allowed. However, the Razorbacks are allowing 14.4 yards per completion, which is 127th in the country.
This will be Arkansas’s first game since firing offensive coordinator Dan Enos.
With that change, we should get a better version of the Razorbacks offense. Quarterback KJ Jefferson has not had the type of year he had hoped for. In their last game, a 7-3 loss to Mississippi State, Jefferson only threw for 97 yards. Jefferson was second to only Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker in the SEC in total offense last season, and he will look to return that form starting Saturday.
The Florida defense has not had much success stopping anyone outside of Vanderbilt. Against Kentucky, South Carolina, and Georgia, the Gators have given up an average of 38.3 points per game.
We should get some points in Gainesville this Saturday, so give me over 49.5.
Texas A&M Aggies (5-3) @ #11 Ole Miss Rebels (7-1) | November 4 | 11:00 AM CT | Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Line: Ole Miss -3 | Total: 54.5
Ole Miss remains in contention for the SEC West. The Rebels sit at 7-1 after four straight wins. Meanwhile, Texas A&M is trying to salvage their season.
Ole Miss has a high-powered offense while Texas A&M has a dominant defense. The Rebels are 12th nationally averaging 474 yards per game and the Aggies are 7th nationally allowing 269.3 yards per game.
The Rebels have shown good balance, passing for 286.5 yards per game and rushing for 187.5 yards per game. Can they keep that going against a tough Texas A&M defense? With the exception of Tennessee, no one has had success on the ground against the Aggies. Tennessee ran for 232 yards against Texas A&M, but despite that, the Aggies are still limiting opponents to 2.85 yards per carry.
So if Texas A&M can slow down Quinshon Judkins and the Ole Miss running game, that leaves it up to quarterback Jaxson Dart. Dart has been solid, but his performance has tapered off since the LSU game in which he threw for four touchdowns and ran for another. In his last three games, Dart is completing 64.3% of his passes and thrown for a touchdown in each.
Texas A&M has also been effective as a passing defense. The Aggies are limiting SEC opponents to 6.1 yards per attempt. They are also second in the country with 33 sacks on the season. Dart has been sacked nine times in the past three weeks.
Texas A&M quarterback Max Johnson is coming off his best game of the season. Johnson completed 20 of 30 passes for 249 yards and a touchdown. While that came against a porous South Carolina defense, the Ole Miss pass defense is pretty comparable. In SEC play, South Carolina allows 8.6 yards per attempt, while Ole Miss allows 7.9 yards per attempt.
Give me Texas A&M +3.
Houston Cougars (3-5) @ Baylor Bears (3-5) | November 4 | 2:30 PM CT | McLane Stadium
Line: Baylor -4 | Total: 58
As we know, Houston got shut out last week, but I think we see the Cougars bounce back this week.
Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen is probably polishing off another case of Red Bull working on the game plan as we speak.
Against conference foes, Houston is still in the upper half of the conference in passing offense at 257.4 yards per game. This week, they will face a Baylor defense that allows 8.2 yards per pass attempt in Big 12 play.
Who leads the Big 12 in passing in conference play? That would be their opponent, Baylor, who averages 295.4 passing yards per game.
The Cougar defense does not hold up against the pass, either, as they allow 8.5 yards per attempt.
With both these teams sitting at 3-5, I think we will see some urgency on offense. Give me over 58 as we should be in for a shootout.
Illinois Illini (3-5) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-3) | November 4 | 2:30 PM CT | Huntington Bank Stadium
Line: Minnesota -2 | Total: 43
The bye week came at a good time for Illinois. The Illini blew a 21-7 lead to Wisconsin and fell 25-21. They probably needed a week to put that behind them.
Now, they travel to take on Minnnesota. They will also be without star defensive lineman Jer’Zhan Newton, who was ejected from the Wisconsin game after he was called for targeting.
Losing Newton is a challenge for a defense that is struggling. Illinois is last in the Big Ten, allowing 396 yards of offense per game.
The defense has given up 235 yards per game against the pass, which is 80th in the country. However, Illinois only allows 6.6 yards per attempt, which is 33rd.
Their opponent, Minnesota, does not excel when it comes to throwing the ball. The Golden Gophers are 128th in the country with 140.4 passing yards per game.
The Illinois offense has shown more potency as they have topped over 300 yards of offense in every game this season. Quarterback Luke Altmyer has been solid and thrown for two touchdowns in each of Illinois’s last two games. Altmyer has also shown an ability to run, with 100 rushing yards against Wisconsin.
I am betting on Bert coming off the bye, give me Illinois +2.
Auburn Tigers (4-4) @ Vanderbilt Commodores (2-7)| November 4 | 3:00 PM CT | FirstBank Stadium
Line: Auburn -12.5 | Total: 49.5
When Vanderbilt is at their best, they are an average SEC team. That has not been the case this season. The Commodores have been beaten by double-digits in every SEC game this season.
The Vanderbilt quarterback situation complicates their problems.
Last week, quarterbacks Ken Seals and Walter Taylor combined to complete 8 of 20 passes for 60 yards and 2 interceptions.
In conference play, the Commodores are averaging only 284 yards per game. Only Arkansas is worse.
While Auburn’s offense has also struggled, it looks like things are looking up for them. Last week, they compiled 416 yards of offense in their 27-13 victory over Mississippi State.
I expect that success to continue against the Vanderbilt defense, which has allowed 6.23 yards per play on the season.
I am taking Auburn -12.5.
OUTTA HERE!
Clarknado Sports 