Season record: 23-16-1
Last week: 2-2 (Penn State/Ohio State under 46.5, Rutgers -5, Iowa -3.5, Pitt +1)
Penn State and Ohio State got the day going with two rather ugly offensive performances to give us an easy win on the under. Then Rutgers overcame an early deficit to win by double-digits. Unfortunately, the rest of the slate did not go so well. However, it was not without controversy. Iowa defensive back Cooper DeJean returned a punt for a touchdown that would have given the Hawkeyes a 16-12 lead, pending an extra point, in the final minutes. Then it was reviewed, and ruled that DeJean made a fair catch signal.
When you bet on Iowa, unfortunately, you have to rely on punt returns for touchdowns.
We also had Pittsburgh not being able to close out a win at Wake Forest. To see how that unfolded, check out the Bad Beats clip below.
We are losing steam as we sit at 58.75% on the season. We have one final shot at making this October into Lock-tober, so let’s get to it!
Houston Cougars (3-4) @ Kansas State Wildcats (5-2) | October 28 | 11:00 AM CT | Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Line: Kansas State -17.5 | Total: 59.5
As Kansas State shuffles quarterbacks Will Howard and Avery Johnson, the Wildcats continue to be one of the best offenses in the country. They are coming off a 41-3 victory over TCU in which they put up 587 yards of offense.
For Houston, quarterback Donovan Smith leads the Big 12 with 11 touchdown passes in conference play.
Defensively, these are the two worst pass defenses in the Big 12. Kansas State allows 254.3 passing yards per game, while Houston allows 260.1 passing yards per game.
Weather be damned, give me over 59.5.
Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-3) @ Auburn Tigers (3-4) | October 28 | 2:30 PM CT | Jordan-Hare Stadium
Line: Auburn -6.5 | Total: 43.5
Remember when these two teams played in 2008 and the final was 3-2?
While I am not sure if this year’s contest will be this low-scoring, I do not see many points being scored.
In conference play, Auburn is averaging only 105 passing yards per game. Mississippi State is a little better, at 196.5 passing yards per game. However, the Bulldogs are coming off a game in which they threw the ball only 12 times. That was a 7-3 victory over Arkansas.
A big reason that Mississippi State did not throw the ball much is that starting quarterback Will Rogers missed the Arkansas game due to injury. Backup Mike Wright handled the snaps and he had almost as many rushes (11) as he did passes (12).
Rogers’s status for this week is still to be determined.
Mississippi State and Auburn are the lowest scoring teams in SEC play. Mississippi State averages 17 points per game, while Auburn averages 17.3 points per game in conference games.
I will take under 43.5.
East Carolina Pirates (1-6) @ UT-San Antonio Roadrunners (4-3) | October 28 | 2:30 PM CT | Alamodome
Line: UT-San Antonio -18.5 | Total: 46
Since quarterback Frank Harris has returned after missing two games, UT-San Antonio is averaging 42 points per game. In that span, Harris is completing 71.4% of his passes with 9 touchdown passes.
Their opponent, East Carolina, only has three touchdown passes on the season. The Pirates are also the second-lowest scoring team in the American Athletic Conference at only 11.3 points per game.
UT-San Antonio clearly has a much better offense. What about defensively?
The Roadrunners actually have an edge there as well. In conference play, UT-San Antonio is holding opponents to 4.7 yards per play compared to East Carolina’s 5.16 yards per play.
I am taking UT-San Antonio -18.5.
#22 Tulane Green Wave (6-1) @ Rice Owls (4-3) | October 28 | 3:00 PM CT | Rice Stadium
Line: Tulane -10.5 | Total: 54
Tulane is headed toward another successful season as they are off to a 6-1 start. Their opponent, the Rice Owls, is a win away from matching their 2022 season win total.
While Tulane still has quarterback Michael Pratt, it has been freshman running back Makhi Hughes that has stolen the show for the Green Wave. Hughes has rushed for 374 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns.
While the Rice defense is not the stingiest bunch, they are respectable defensively. Opposing teams are averaging 3.81 yards per run. That ranks 53rd in the country.
However, I am not going to pick Rice because of their defense. I am going to pick them because of quarterback JT Daniels. Daniels has thrown for 2,173 yards and 17 touchdowns, both are top 10 nationally. Daniels and receiver Luke McCaffrey have connected for seven touchdowns this season.
Against a Tulane defense that has given up 321 passing yards to Memphis and 343 passing yards to North Texas, I think Daniels will find success.
Give me Rice +10.5. How about some gummy worms, too?
Colorado Buffaloes (4-3) @ #23 UCLA Bruins (5-2) | October 28 | 6:30 PM CT | Rose Bowl
Line: UCLA -17 | Total: 63.5
Last time we saw Colorado, the Buffaloes were stunned in a double overtime loss to Stanford. Now, they get UCLA to come off their bye week.
The Bruins will be the best defense that Colorado has seen to date. On the season, the UCLA defense allows only 282.6 yards per game. Something that the Bruins do well is get after the quarterback. The UCLA defense has already accumulated 24 sacks.
While Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders has had an impressive season, he has dealt with immense pressure. Sanders has already been sacked 34 times this season. Despite that, he has thrown for 21 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions.
However, his last two road starts have not been particularly productive. At Oregon and at Arizona State, Sanders had only touchdown in each game. In those games, he averaged only 5.3 yards per attempt.
UCLA’s offense will be predicated on running the football. The Bruins rank 8th nationally at 215.6 rushing yards per game. Carson Steele leads the way with 599 yards on 113 carries, with 6 touchdowns.
While Colorado’s rush defense has looked better as of late, we can likely attribute that to quality of opponent. TCU, Nebraska, and Oregon all ran for over 200 yards on the Buffaloes. I like UCLA to do the same.
I will take UCLA -17.
#17 North Carolina Tar Heels (6-1) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3-4) | October 28 | 7:00 PM CT | Bobby Dodd Stadium
Line: North Carolina -11 | Total: 64
North Carolina comes in off their first loss of the season. Quarterback Drake Maye did not have his best game, but still threw for 347 yards and 2 touchdowns.
This week, Maye takes on a Georgia Tech defense that is giving up 13.8 yards per completion. That should be child’s play as North Carolina looks to get back on track.
The Yellow Jackets are also among the worst in FBS in time of possession. Georgia Tech ranks 117th in that department. If they cannot keep the ball out of Maye’s hands, the North Carolina offense that averages 35.9 points per game is capable of scoring nonstop.
I am going with North Carolina -11.
OUTTA HERE!
Clarknado Sports 