Season record: 12-7
Last week: 2-3 (North Carolina State -9.5, Rutgers/Michigan under 44, Oklahoma -14.5, Army +13.5, Ohio State/Notre Dame over 55.5 )
That was a tough week as North Carolina State was lucky to win at Virginia, Oklahoma just missed a cover, and Ohio State and Notre Dame fell short of the over by 25 points.
Let’s turn it around this week.
OK, now to the picks.
Clemson Tigers (2-2) @ Syracuse Orange (4-0) | September 30 | 11:00 AM CT | JMA Wireless Dome
Line: Clemson -7 | Total: 53
Clemson finds themselves in unusual territory with two losses less than a month into the season. Now they head up to Syracuse to take on an undefeated team.
Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik has taken his lumps as a first-year starter. Klubnik struggled in the opener against Duke, and last week, he had a costly fumble that resulted in a Florida State touchdown. Nonetheless, he is showing signs of improvement. Klubnik is averaging 6.7 yards per attempt, which is up from 4.9 after the game against Duke.
The Clemson running backs have added quite a punch to the Clemson offense. Will Shipley averages 5.4 yards per carry, while Phil Mafah averages 6.7 yards per carry. They will face a tough run defense in Syracuse which allows only 2.5 yards per rush. However, I think the Clemson running backs are a different caliber than what the Orange have seen from Colgate, Western Michigan, Purdue, and Army.
Syracuse quarterback Garrett Shrader has displayed his dual threat ability. On the season, Shrader has thrown for six touchdowns and rushed for six more. Shrader is also coming off one of his best passing performances of his career. He completed 21 of 26 for 245 yards and a touchdown.
The Clemson defense has been impressive to start the season. The Tigers are allowing only 262.8 yards per game, which is 8th nationally. Last week, they held Florida State to a season-low 311 yards.
Leaning on their running game and playing great defense, I expect a bounce back from the Tigers, so give me Clemson -7. With that said, I will also take under 53.
#22 Florida Gators (3-1) @ Kentucky Wildcats (4-0) | September 30 | 11:00 AM CT | Kroger Field
Line: Kentucky -1.5 | Total: 44
Florida quarterback Graham Mertz leads the SEC in completion percentage at 77.8%. Mertz has been solid for the Gators, but what do we know about him? He struggles on the road, unless it is Northwestern. Mertz has lost his last five road starts excluding the win at Northwestern. In those games, he has completed 80 of 141 passes with 6 touchdowns.
Now, Mertz is on the road for the first time in SEC play. Some might say Kentucky is not the most daunting place to play, but do not tell that to Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops.
The Wildcats have a good team, too. While Kentucky has not faced the toughest schedule, they have one of the top net yards per play in the country.
The Wildcats will be up for this one and I believe they stay undefeated. I am taking Kentucky -1.5.
#2 Michigan Wolverines (4-0) @ Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-2) | September 30 | 2:30 PM CT | Memorial Stadium
Line: Michigan -17.5 | Total: 40
Two of the Big Ten’s best defenses meet when Michigan meets Nebraska. Michigan comes in allowing only 231 yards per game, while Nebraska allows 298 yards per game.
This is also Michigan’s first road game of the season. After dismantling a non-conference slate of East Carolina, UNLV, and Bowling Green, the Wolverines took down Rutgers in their Big Ten opener. In the victory, Michigan showed tremendous balance, throwing for 214 yards and running for 201 yards.
The Cornhuskers have been very good at stopping the run. Through four games, Nebraska allows only 1.83 yards per rush.
Nebraska has struggled with turnovers, but maybe they have been those woes behind them. In losses to Minnesota and Colorado, the Cornhuskers lost three turnovers in each game. In their last two games, they have only lost one turnover. That is something quarterback Heinrich Haarberg has emphasized.
Haarberg has been a relevation for the Nebraska offense. While he is not much of a passer, Haarberg has been a threat on the ground with 255 rushing yards in his last two games.
Is 8/17 good? I guess if you are grading with a curve. Getting 17.5 points at home is sort of like a curve, too. Give me Nebraska +17.5.
Houston Cougars (2-2) @ Texas Tech Red Raiders (1-3) | September 30 | 2:30 PM CT | Jones AT&T Stadium
Line: Texas Tech -8.5 | Total: 51.5
After two disappointing losses, Houston put up a season-high 538 yards of offense. It was quarterback Donovan Smith’s best game of the season as he completed 31 of 40 passes for 294 yards and a touchdown. Now, he heads to Lubbock to face his former school.
Can you say “revenge game”?
Texas Tech has one of the top pass defenses in the country, allowing only 5.6 yards per attempt. However, that could be due to a weak schedule of passing offenses in Wyoming (ranked #125 nationally), West Virginia (#120 nationally), and Tarleton State (FCS). Against Oregon, the Red Raiders were hit for 359 yards through the air.
Texas Tech will be without quarterback Tyler Shough, who suffered a nasty leg injury against West Virginia. In Shough’s absence, the Texas Tech offense struggled. Backup quarterback Behren Morton completed only 13 of 37 passes in the 20-13 loss at West Virginia.
The loss of Shough is big, and I feel like Smith will have a big game in his return to Lubbock, so I will take Houston +8.5.
Arkansas State Red Wolves (2-2) @ UMass Minutemen (1-4) | September 30 | 2:30 PM CT | Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Line: UMass -1 | Total: 55.5
We are going off the radar here. Arkansas State and UMass may not be good football teams, but they can be exciting.
Last week, Arkansas State found a spark in freshman quarterback Jaylen Raynor. Raynor threw for three touchdowns and ran for two more. The dual threat quarterback would draw comparisons to Kyler Murray as he accounted for 330 yards of offense.
UMass has a talented freshman quarterback, too. Ahmad Haston came in last week against New Mexico. Haston did not disappoint, either. His first collegiate pass went for a 65-yard touchdown.
These quarterbacks will get to take on two of the worst defenses in FBS. UMass is ranked #113 in total defense and Arkansas State is ranked #126, allowing 419 yards per game and 447.8 yards per game, respectively.
Give me over 55.5.
OUTTA HERE!
Clarknado Sports 