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Nado’s Notions: Week 12

Season record: 26-24-2

Last week: 3-2 (Pittsburgh -4.5, Wisconsin -1.5, Florida -8, Washington/Oregon over 72.5, Auburn -1.5)

Where has the season gone? It is already Week 12. With just two weeks to go, I am over .500, but just barely. It is time to finish strong!

DURHAM, NC – NOVEMBER 12: Riley Leonard (13) of the Duke Blue Devils run the ball during a football game between the Duke Blue Devils and the Virginia Tech Hokies on Nov 12, 2022 at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, NC. (Photo by David Jensen/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Duke Blue Devils (7-3) @ Pittsburgh Panthers (6-4) | November 19 | 11:00 AM CT | Acrisure Stadium

Line: Pittsburgh -7.5 | Total: 52.5

Both teams come into this matchup with winning streaks. Duke has won three in a row, while Pittsburgh has won two in a row.

For the Blue Devils, quarterback Riley Leonard has been a revelation. The sophomore has accounted for 23 touchdowns (13 passing, 10 rushing). Leonard leads an offense that averages 33.3 points per game in ACC play.

Pittsburgh is the top defense in the ACC, allowing only 302 yards per game in conference play. However, those numbers are aided by playing against two of the league’s worst offenses in recent weeks. The Panthers held Syracuse and Virginia to 145 and 144 yards of offense, respectively, in recent weeks. Expect Duke to be a much tougher challenge.

Pittsburgh wants to run the ball and play defense. Running back Israel Abanikanda leads the ACC with 1,207 rushing yards on the season. Duke has been good against the run this season. The Blue Devils allow only 121.8 rushing yards per game. On the season, Duke has only allowed six rushing touchdowns.

Give me Duke +7.5.

LUBBOCK, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 12: Quarterback Donovan Smith #7 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders runs for a touchdown during the first half of the game against the Kansas Jayhawks at Jones AT&T Stadium on November 12, 2022 in Lubbock, Texas. (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images)

Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-5) @ Iowa State Cyclones (4-6) | November 19 | 6:00 PM CT | Jack Trice Stadium

Line: Iowa State -3.5 | Total: 48

In the Big 12, you have to be able to score to win. I was actually shocked by the lack of scoring in the TCU vs. Texas game.

However, this game seems simple from my view. The Red Raiders average the second-most yards per game in Big 12 play behind TCU (463.3). Meanwhile, the Cyclones average the least yards per game in the Big 12 at 348.6 yards per game.

If I am getting points with the better offense, I am taking them. Give me Texas Tech +3.5.

KNOXVILLE, TN – NOVEMBER 12: Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Hendon Hooker (5) celebrates with Tennessee Volunteers offensive lineman Javontez Spraggins (76) and Tennessee Volunteers offensive lineman Cooper Mays (63) during the college football game between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Missouri Tigers on November 12, 2022, at Neyland Stadium, in Knoxville, TN. (Photo by Bryan Lynn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

#5 Tennessee Volunteers (9-1) @ South Carolina Gamecocks (6-4) | November 19 | 6:00 PM CT | Williams-Brice Stadium

The South Carolina offense cannot do much without running back MarShawn Lloyd. Without Lloyd, the Gamecocks were able to put up 237 yards of offense and 6 points against a bad Florida defense. Quarterback Spencer Rattler has not thrown for over 200 yards since he did so against South Carolina State in late September.

South Carolina will be squaring off against a Tennessee squad that can score in bunches. Last week, Missouri was able to keep it close for a half, then Tennessee put it into overdrive and scored 38 points in the second half.

The Volunteers lead the country in yards per game at 543.7. As evidenced by last week, they show no mercy to opponents. As the season winds down, Tennessee is vying for a potential College Football Playoff spot and quarterback Hendon Hooker is in the Heisman race. With those elements in play, running up the score is probably in the cards.

Sure, this is a bit of a rivalry game, but South Carolina seems to be satisfied by just reaching bowl eligibility.

That was before the Gamecocks were romped by Florida. Actions speak louder than words…

Tennessee -21.5 is the pick.

WINSTON-SALEM, NC – NOVEMBER 12: Taylor Morin (2) of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons runs the ball after making a catch during a football game between the Wake Forest Demon Deacons and the North Carolina Tar Heels on Nov 12, 2022 at Truist Field in Winston-Salem, NC. (Photo by David Jensen/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Syracuse Orange (6-4) @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-4) | November 19 | 7:00 PM CT | Truist Field

Line: Wake Forest -10 | Total: 55

Speaking of teams satisfied with reaching bowl eligibility, no team personifies that more than Syracuse. The Orange started 6-0 and since then, they are 0-4.

Syracuse’s offense has been a mess lately. In the past two weeks, they have scored a total of 12 points. Against Florida State, quarterback Garrett Shrader completed only 6 of 16 passes, while running back Sean Tucker ran for only 52 yards on 14 carries.

While Wake Forest does not present much of a defense, their offense can go. The Demon Deacons average 36.6 points per game. Quarterback Sam Hartman has thrown for the seventh-most touchdowns in the country, with 28. Hartman will be playing in his last home of his Wake Forest career. He has been very good there, throwing for 19 touchdowns to only 4 interceptions.

In six home games, Wake Forest averages 41.3 points per game.

I expect the Syracuse skid to continue, so I am going with Wake Forest -10.

OUTTA HERE!

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