Season record: 21-18-2
Last week: 2-3 (Ohio State -15.5, Kansas State -1, South Carolina -4, Kentucky +12.5, Pittsburgh/North Carolina over 64.5)
Unfortunately, it was another losing week. Ohio State almost snuck away with a cover with a pick-six late, only for Penn State to answer with a score of their own. Kansas State rolled, winning 48-0 over Oklahoma State with backup Will Howard under center. My two SEC picks were clearly the wrong side as Tennessee walloped Kentucky and Missouri won outright at South Carolina. Finally, North Carolina and Pittsburgh went over as the Tar Heels won 42-24.
Time to get back on track with another winning week.
#24 Oregon State Beavers (6-2) @ Washington Huskies (6-2) | November 4 | 9:30 PM CT | Husky Stadium
Line: Washington -3.5 | Total: 54.5
Washington has gotten back on track after losing back to back games against UCLA and Arizona State. Quarterback Michael Penix continues to pile up big numbers as he has thrown for over 300 yards in every game this season. The junior has accounted for 24 touchdowns through eight games.
Oregon State has had to turn to freshman quarterback Ben Gulbranson due to an injury to starter Chance Nolan. The Beavers are 3-0 in Gulbranson’s starts and his play is a big reason why. Gulbranson is completing 62.2% of his passes, with 5 touchdowns and only 1 interception in those games.
Despite Gulbranson’s success, Oregon State’s offense is still predicated on running the football. The Beavers run the ball on 58.6% of plays from scrimmage, which is the 19th highest rate in the country. Oregon State has a trio of running backs contributing to their rushing attack. It is led by Damien Martinez, who has 517 yards and 5 touchdowns, and supplemented by Deshaun Fenwick (356 yards, 4 touchdowns) and Jam Griffin (339 yards, 2 touchdowns).
The Washington defense has exceled in stopping the run this season. In Pac-12 play, the Huskies are allowing only 122.6 rushing yards per game. Last week, they limited California to only 61 rushing yards on 31 carries.
Oregon State’s pass defense has been stellar throughout the season. The Beavers held USC quarterback Caleb Williams to 180 yards on 16 completions of 36 passes. On the season, Oregon State is allowing a passer rating of 113.46, which ranks 14th in the country. However, there is a big variance in road and home splits. Opponents’ passer rating ticks up to 135.65 in road games for the Beavers. In those games, opposing quarterbacks are completing 62.6% of their passes and averaging 7.6 yards per attempt.
Give me Washington -3.5.
#17 North Carolina Tar Heels (7-1) @ Virginia Cavaliers (3-5) | November 5 | 11:00 AM CT | Scott Stadium
Line: North Carolina -7.5 | Total: 59
North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye had another sensational performance as he threw for five touchdowns in their 42-24 win over Pittsburgh. Maye is now tied with Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud for most touchdown passes in the country with 29.
Am I really to expect the 123rd scoring offense in the country to keep it within this number? The Cavaliers scored 12 points in a 4 OT game last week.
Don’t think about it too much. North Carolina -7.5 is the pick.
Florida Gators (4-4) @ Texas A&M Aggies (3-5) | November 5 | 11:00 AM CT | Kyle Field
Line: Texas A&M -3.5| Total: 54
Texas A&M and Florida both lost again last week. As the calendar turns to November, both schools are looking for something positive.
The Aggies sit at 3-5, but may have found an answer at quarterback. In his first start, freshman Conner Weigman threw for 338 yards and 4 touchdowns. That has been the best passing performance by a Texas A&M quarterback this season, by a large margin.
Weigman will get a shot at a Florida defense that has been suspect all season. The Gators allow 445 yards per game. In SEC play, their pass defense has really struggled as opposing quarterbacks are averaging 9.4 yards per attempt.
The Florida defense suffered another blow this week as starting linebacker Brenton Cox Jr. was dismissed. Cox led the team in tackles for loss with eight and was second on the team in sacks with two.
Offensively, the Gators are a run-first team. They average 199 yards per game on the ground. Running back Montrell Johnson Jr. carries the ball a bulk of the time, with 449 yards on 70 attempts. Johnson also leads Florida in rushing touchdowns with seven. Quarterback Anthony Richardson also contributes to their rushing attack, as he has 414 yards and 6 touchdowns.
While Richardson has proven to be a running threat, his passing leaves a lot to be desired. On the season, he is completing only 55.2% of his passes and has thrown 7 interceptions.
The Texas A&M defense has been very good in limiting opponents through the air. The Aggies allow an SEC-low 170.1 passing yards per game.
Ole Rock would be proud as I am taking Texas A&M -3.5
#2 Tennessee Volunteers (8-0) @ #1 Georgia Bulldogs (8-0) | November 5 | 2:30 PM CT | Sanford Stadium
Line: Georgia -8.5 | Total: 66
Tennessee continued their dominance as they rolled to a 44-6 win over Kentucky. As for dominance, Georgia is no stranger. The Bulldogs have their last 23 regular season games going back to the 2020 season.
Tenneseee quarterback Hendon Hooker leads a high octane offense that averages 553 yards per game and 49.4 points per game, both lead the nation. Hooker’s numbers are incredible: 21 touchdowns to only 1 interception, 71.2% completion percentage, and 10.7 yards per attempt. Also posting incredible numbers is his favorite target, receiver Jalin Hyatt. Hyatt has 14 touchdowns on the season and averages 20.2 yards per catch.
While Tennessee has a potent passing attack, they can also run the ball. The Volunteers average 199.6 rushing yards per game. Running backs Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small have combined for 13 rushing touchdowns on the season. Hooker’s ability as a runner also shows up here with 338 rushing yards this season.
Tennessee will face their biggest test to date in the Georgia defense. The Bulldogs allow only 262.5 yards per game, which is fourth nationally. They are making life difficult for opposing quarterbacks as they have completed only 53.6% of passes.
The Georgia defense will be without one of their biggest stars for the rest of the season. Linebacker Nolan Smith suffered a torn pectoral muscle against Florida.
Smith leads Georgia in both tackles for loss and sacks with seven and three, respectively. This is a big blow to a Bulldogs defense that has not excelled at getting sacks. In SEC play, Georgia has six sacks. Only Vanderbilt, with five, has fewer.
Another significant battle in this game will be the Georgia rushing attack against the Tennessee rush defense. Georgia comes in averaging 202 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, Tennessee only allows 92.9 rushing yards per game.
After last week, I cannot go against the Volunteers. Give me Tennessee +8.5.
#22 Syracuse Orange (6-2) @ Pittsburgh Panthers (4-4) | November 5 | 2:30 PM CT | Acrisure Stadium
Line: Pittsburgh -3.5 | Total: 48
Both schools come into this game on two-game losing streaks. Someone is going to get off the skids this weekend.
Syracuse has had problems defending the run. In back to back weeks, Syracuse has allowed rushing totals of 293 and 246 to Clemson and Notre Dame, respectively.
If there is one thing the Pittsburgh offense can do it is running the ball. Running back Israel Abanikanda has rushed for 1,086 yards on the season and is showing no signs of slowing down. His latest outing was for 127 yards and 3 touchdowns against North Carolina.
While North Carolina got the best of the Pittsburgh defense, the Panthers have an opportunity to regain form this weekend. Syracuse quarterback Garrett Shrader was banged up against Notre Dame. While he is expected to play, I do not expect him to be 100%.
I am taking Pittsburgh -3.5.
Texas Longhorns (5-3) @ #13 Kansas State (6-2) | November 5 | 6:00 PM CT | Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Line: Texas -2.5 | Total: 54.5
Kansas State is coming off a dominant win over Oklahoma State, while Texas is coming off of a bye.
Kansas State was without starting quarterback Adrian Martinez, but it did not seem to matter as they defeated Oklahoma State 48-0. Will Howard threw for four touchdowns in the victory. Whether or not Martinez returns is unknown. But if not, the offense is still in good hands.
The Kansas State offense has experienced an uptick in performance in conference play. In non-conference play, the Wildcats averaged 5.32 yards per play. In Big 12 games, they average 6.87 yards per play.
The Texas offense is a dynamic unit with quarterback Quinn Ewers. Ewers has displayed talent, but he has also shown he can be erratic. Against Oklahoma State, he was picked off three times as Texas fell 41-34. With a bye week to clean things up, I expect a better performance out of Ewers.
Texas running back Bijan Robinson continues to be a key contributor. Robinson has posted six straight 100+ rushing yard performances.
Despite their recent shutout against Oklahoma State, Kansas State has been involved in some high-scoring affairs in Big 12 play. The Wildcats defeated Oklahoma 41-34 and Texas Tech 37-28, and fell 38-28 to TCU.
Big 12 = big points. I am taking over 54.5.
OUTTA HERE!
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