Season record: 19-15-2
Last week: 2-3 (Iowa +29, UCLA +6, Texas -6, South Carolina +3.5, Kansas State/TCU over 55.5)
It was a back to reality week as I went 0-3 heading into the late game window. I knew Iowa could not afford to turn the ball over if they were going to cover, and unfortunately, they did so six times. All things considered, their defense played well, allowing only allowing 360 total yards to an explosive Ohio State team. However, they lost by 44 points.
Turnovers would also plague Texas as Quinn Ewers threw three interceptions in a loss at Oklahoma State. For UCLA, they simply could not stop Bo Nix as he threw for five touchdowns.
I would get right as South Carolina won outright and TCU once again helped hit another over.
2-3 is not good enough. As Lebron James would say, “strive for greatness”. However, unlike Lebron and the Lakers, I am striving to actually win games.
Onto week 9!
#2 Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0) @ #13 Penn State Nittany Lions (6-1) | October 29 | 11:00 AM CT | Beaver Stadium
Line: Ohio State -15.5 | Total: 61
Last week, I went against Ohio State and they dumptrucked Iowa by a score of 54-10. The Buckeyes defense dominated the Hawkeyes offense and quarterback C.J. Stroud delivered four passing touchdowns. Now, they head to Happy Valley.
Penn State is coming off a dominant win as well. The Nittany Lions rolled to a 45-17 victory over Minnesota. Quarterback Sean Clifford had a big day completing 23 of 31 passes with 4 touchdowns.
Since their first game against Notre Dame, no one has kept it close against Ohio State. Their average margin of victory this season is 34.7 points.
While Stroud is currently the Heisman favorite, and rightfully so, the Buckeyes have incredible talent at the skill positions. Running backs Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson are getting it done on the ground. Williams averages 7.0 yards per carry, while Henderson averages 5.9 yards per carry. The pair has also combined for 13 touchdowns. The receiving corps is perhaps even more loaded. Emeka Egbuka, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Julian Fleming have combined for 1,660 yards and 23 touchdowns. That does not even include future first rounder Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has been slowed due to injury this season. Whether or not Smith-Njigba will contribute this season remains to be seen, but this offense has rolled along even without him.
The Ohio State defense has also been elite. In conference play, the Buckeyes lead the Big Ten in total defense and are second in scoring defense. They have thrived under first year defensive coordinator Jim Knowles.
Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles assured everyone earlier in the season that the turnovers were coming, and now they are. He’s also stated that as the weeks have gone by, he’s noticed the confidence in his players building. Guys have gotten comfortable in the scheme and are reaping the results of it. However, Knowles suggests that more could still be on the way in the coming weeks.
“It’s part of the process,” Knowles said. “If the process was going the right way that, that’s one of the indicators that you’re doing good things.”
https://www.cleveland.com/osu/2022/10/ohio-states-defense-has-started-forcing-turnovers-but-jim-knowles-thinks-more-are-on-the-way.html
The Penn State defense was able to smother Minnesota last week. That was mainly due to Gophers’ starting quarterback Tanner Morgan being out. With Morgan out, backup Athan Kaliakmanis completed only 9 of 22 passes. Penn State also kept Minnesota running back Mohamed Ibrahim in check as he averaged 3.4 yards per carry. However, that was not the case when they went up against Michigan. The Wolverines were able to run at will as they rushed for 418 yards on their way to a 41-17 victory.
The Nittany Lions were no match against Michigan and I expect a similar story this week. I am taking Ohio State -15.5.
#9 Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-1) @ Kansas State Wildcats (5-2) | October 29 | 2:30 PM CT | Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Line: Kansas State -1 | Total: 56
The big story heading into this game is the status of Kansas State quarterback Adrian Martinez. As of now, Martinez expects to be a game time decision.
With a possible conference championship bid on the line, I expect Martinez to give it a go. Martinez’s dual threat ability has given life to the Kansas State offense. However, backup Will Howard had some success coming in against TCU last week. Howard threw for 225 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Martinez’s running ability could be a huge factor in this game. On the season, he has rushed for 565 yards and 9 touchdowns. The Oklahoma State defense has struggled to stop the run as of late, as both Texas and TCU have gone over 200 yards on the ground against them.
The Oklahoma State defense did a great job of forcing turnovers last week as they intercepted three passes against Texas. However, they are facing a team in Kansas State that does not turn the ball over much. Through seven games, the Wildcats have only turned the ball over five times.
As the line indicates, this will be a close game. At home, give me Kansas State -1.
Missouri Tigers (3-4) @ South Carolina Gamecocks (5-2) | October 29 | 3:00 PM CT | Williams-Brice Stadium
Line: South Carolina -4 | Total: 47
South Carolina is coming off a victory over Texas A&M while Missouri is coming off a win against Vanderbilt. Both teams had to hold off late rallies.
For South Carolina, they opened the game with a kickoff return for a touchdown and never trailed. However, they were outgained 398 to 286 in yardage and 23 to 13 in first downs.
The Gamecock is relying heavily on running back MarShawn Lloyd and it has paid off. In victories over Texas A&M and Kentucky, Lloyd has carried the ball 40 times for 202 yards with 3 touchdowns.
The Missouri offense ranks near the bottom of the SEC offensively. Through four SEC games, the Tigers are averaging only 321 yards and 17.5 points per game. They, too, rely on their ground game. Running backs Nathaniel Peat and Cody Shrader split time in the backfield. Collectively, they average 107 rushing yards per game.
While South Carolina struggled against the run early in the season, the Gamecocks have been better as of late. In the past two weeks, they have seen two talented running backs in Kentucky’s Chris Rodriguez and Texas A&M’s Devon Achane. Rodriguez had 126 yards, while Achane had 99 yards. While that is still a good deal of yardage, keep in mind that Arkansas gashed them for 295 and Georgia ran for 208.
The Gamecocks are buying into what head coach Shane Beamer is building and so are the fans.
Williams-Brice will be rocking and I am Gamecocking. South Carolina -4 is the pick.
#19 Kentucky Wildcats (5-2) @ #3 Tennessee Volunteers (7-0) | October 29 | 6:00 PM CT | Neyland Stadium
Line: Tennessee -12.5 | Total: 63.5
At this point you know how great the Tennessee offense is. The Volunteers lit up LSU in Baton Rouge then followed it up with a victory over Alabama. However, the job is not done. This week Tennessee plays host to Kentucky and next week they go to Georgia.
Kentucky enters this game off of a bye. Last time out, the Wildcats knocked off Mississippi State. Running back Chris Rodriguez had his best game of the season with 197 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns. Rodriguez’s ability to pick up tough yardage and extending drives will be a key for Kentucky in this game.
The Tennessee rush defense has been really good this season. The Volunteers are only allowing 3.07 yards per carry in SEC play. However, Rodriguez is a different animal. As the tweet above shows, he is the hardest running back in the SEC is to tackle.
The Tennessee pass defense has not been so good so far. In three conference games, the Volunteers are allowing 402.7 passing yards per game. You have to believe Kentucky quarterback Will Levis is anxious to show off what he can do against them. Levis is completing 69.5% of his passes on the season. His 10.0 yards per attempt ranks third nationally.
Let us also put some respect on the Kentucky defense. The Wildcats rank 14th nationally, allowing 295.4 yards per game. Kentucky has done a good job in limiting big plays this season. They have allowed 46 plays of 10 or more yards. For comparison’s sake, Tennessee has allowed 94 plays of 10 or more yards.
This is an interesting game to me. I think the Wildcats keep it close. Give me Kentucky +12.5.
Pittsburgh Panthers (4-3) @ #21 North Carolina Tar Heels (6-1) | October 29 | 7:00 PM CT | Kenan Stadium
Line: North Carolina -3 | Total: 64.5
North Carolina comes into this game off of a bye while Pittsburgh enters off a disappointing loss. For the Panthers, it was their second loss in three games.
North Carolina is the top scoring team in the ACC, averaging 41.7 points per game. Quarterback Drake Maye continues to garner headlines with his stellar play. Maye ranks second nationally with 24 passing touchdowns. He also ranks third in passing yards per game with 326.1.
On the flipside, North Carolina’s defense is the ACC’s worst scoring defense. The Tar Heels allow 32.4 points per game. They also allow 476.3 yards per game, which ranks 126th nationally.
Like I mentioned earlier, Pittsburgh is in a bit of a slump. Quarterback Kedon Slovis is coming off one of the worst games of his career. Slovis threw a pair of interceptions and lost a fumble. Turnovers aside, the Panthers have done a decent job moving the ball. The Panthers average 415.6 yards per game.
The emergence of running back Israel Abanikanda has aided the Pittsburgh offense. Abanikanda has gone over 100 yards in five of his last six games. He had a monster game against Virginia Tech in which he carried 36 times for 320 yards and 6 touchdowns. Abanikanda will get a shot at North Carolina’s defense that allowed 297 rushing yards against Duke last time out.
Last time I took North Carolina, they were taking on a struggling offense in Notre Dame. The Irish would go on to score 45 points that day. When it comes to the North Carolina defense, I have trust issues, so give me over 64.5.
OUTTA HERE!
Clarknado Sports 