Season record: 17-12-2
Last week: 5-0! (Michigan -7, Alabama/Tennessee over 65.5, Oklahoma State/TCU over 68.5, Syracuse -3.5, USC +3.5)
Well, would you look at that? A 5-0 week! That brings my winning percentage to 58% on the season. It is not time to let up as I now have to sustain this success.
Let’s roll!
Iowa Hawkeyes (3-3) @ #2 Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0) | October 22 | 11:00 AM CT | Ohio Stadium
Line: Ohio State -29 | Total: 49
Ohio State has been dominant all season as they sit at 6-0. The Buckeyes offense is second in the country, averaging 543.7 yards per game. Remarkably, they have done this without star receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has been out for most of the season. Receivers Emeka Egbuka and Marvin Harrison Jr have stepped up in his absence. The two have combined for 1,191 yards and 15 touchdowns.
The Iowa offense, however, cannot seem to get going. The Hawkeyes average 238.8 yards of offense per game, which is worst in the country. Quarterback Spencer Petras has only thrown for 940 yards on the season. Petras did have one of his best games against Michigan however. He completed 21 of 31 passes for 246 yards and a touchdown in the loss.
The Iowa defense is much better than their counterpart. They come into the matchup allowing only 3.83 yards per play, which is second in the country.
Iowa has a turnover margin of +4, which is big. If they are to get scoring opportunities, it will likely come by way of turnover. Likewise, they need to avoid turnovers to keep their defense from defending a short field. For the Hawkeyes, getting to fourth down and giving their punter an opportunity is huge. Tory Taylor is fifth in the country with a punting average of 46.1 yards.
In today’s college football, you have to score to win. Not sure the Hawkeyes are capable of doing that, but can they cover? You betcha! Give me Iowa +29.
#9 UCLA Bruins (6-0) @ #10 Oregon Ducks (5-1) | October 22 | 2:30 PM CT | Autzen Stadium
Line: Oregon -6 | Total: 69.5
UCLA enters this matchup undefeated. However, Oregon will be their toughest road test to date. Since being trounced by Georgia, the Ducks have reeled off five straight wins.
UCLA quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been outstanding. Thompson-Robinson is completing 74.8% of his passes and has thrown for 15 touchdowns. He has also run for 231 yards and 4 touchdowns.
The Bruins also have running back Zach Charbonnet, who has been a force on the ground. Charbonnet is averaging 7.1 yards per carry and has 7 touchdowns on the season.
Charbonnet will take on the Pac-12’s top rush defense in Oregon. The Ducks are only allowing 98 rushing yards per game.
Oregon quarterback Bo Nix has improved remarkably since the opener against Georgia. Nix is now completing 70.4% of his passes and averaging 8.2 yards per attempt. He has also done a good job in avoiding interceptions, as he has only thrown one in his last five games. Nix has also made a difference with his legs as he averages 8.3 yards per carry with 8 rushing touchdowns.
While both teams have respectable defenses, this game will down to the offenses. Oregon is averaging 42 points per game in Pac-12 play, while UCLA is averaging 41.5.
UCLA +6 is too hard to pass up, so give me the Bruins.
#20 Texas Longhorns (5-2) @ #11 Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-1) | October 22 | 2:30 PM CT | Boone Pickens Stadium
Line: Texas -6 | Total: 62.5
Oklahoma State suffered their first loss of the season as they fell to TCU in overtime. Meanwhile, Texas was able to shrug off an Iowa State upset bid.
Oklahoma State was due to show some regression, and this may be where we see more of that. The Cowboys are last in the Big 12, averaging 5.02 yards per play in conference. Quarterback Spencer Sanders has the lowest completion percentage of starting Big 12 quarterbacks in conference play at 52.7%. To his credit, Sanders has been a threat on the ground with 199 rushing yards and 5 rushing touchdowns in conference play.
The Texas offense is littered with playmakers like quarterback Quinn Ewers, running back Bijan Robinson, and receiver Xavier Worthy. Ewers has thrown seven touchdowns in his last two games since returning from injury. Robinson has gone over 100 rushing yards in his last five games. Worthy has scored a touchdown in Texas’s last four games, including a pair last week against Iowa State.
The Texas defense has been quite good this season. The Longhorns are allowing only 4.76 yards per play, which leads the Big 12. While they have not faced some of the Big 12’s elite offenses to this point, Texas did face Alabama and reigning Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young. The Longhorns held the Crimson Tide to 374 yards of offense and 20 points.
The Oklahoma State defense has had issues. In each of the Cowboys’ last two games, their opponents have put up over 500 yards of offense.
I am taking Texas -6.
Texas A&M Aggies (3-3) @ South Carolina Gamecocks (4-2) | October 22 | 6:30 PM CT | Williams-Brice Stadium
Line: Texas A&M -3.5 | Total: 45
Both teams come into this game off of a bye. With neither in their respective divisional race, they will be out to salvage the second half of the season.
This is by no means a sexy matchup as it features two of the worst offenses in the SEC. In conference play, South Carolina averages 359.3 yards per game while Texas A&M averages 351.3 yards per game.
Texas A&M has had to shuffle its quarterback over the course of the season. Starter Haynes King was benched after a loss to Appalachian State. King gave way to LSU transfer Max Johnson, who then broke his hand in a loss at Mississippi State. Now, King finds himself as the starter once again. He is dealing with a foot injury himself, but appears ready to go this weekend.
King is a mobile quarterback who has struggled with accuracy. In his last two games, King has only completed 31 of 59 passes. If he is ailed by a foot injury, I question how effective he can be.
For South Carolina, the quarterback position is also an adventure with the enigmatic Spencer Rattler. Rattler, much like he did at Oklahoma, has struggled with turnovers. He now has eight interceptions on the season. Rattler will need to play within himself, as he did against Kentucky, to put the Gamecocks in position to win. Rattler went 14 of 19 for 177 yards and a touchdown, although he did have another interception.
The South Carolina offense got a big boost from running back Marshawn Lloyd in the win over Kentucky. Lloyd ran for 110 yards and a touchdown. He will get a shot at a Texas A&M defense that has struggled in that department, allowing 189.8 rushing yards per game.
Not to get too cock-y, but I like the home underdogs. Give me South Carolina +3.5.
#17 Kansas State Wildcats (5-1) @ #8 TCU Horned Frogs (6-0) | October 22 | 7:00 PM CT | Amon G. Carter Stadium
Line: TCU -3.5 | Total: 55.5
TCU remains undefeated as they got the win over previously unbeaten Oklahoma State. Now, they face off against another Big 12 contender in Kansas State.
Kansas State is led by quarterback Adrian Martinez who has been on a tear as of late. Martinez has accounted for 10 touchdowns in his last three games, 7 of those have come in the form of rushing touchdowns. While Martinez is getting into the endzone, running back Deuce Vaughn has not. Vaughn has not scored a touchdown since September 10 against Missouri.
Vaughn left the Iowa State game with an ankle injury on October 8.
With a bye week to rest up, I expect Vaughn to get back on track. He is currently 12th in the country in rushing yards per game with 110.2.
As mentioned earlier, TCU just took on Oklahoma State. They faced another dual threat quarterback in Spencer Sanders. Sanders did his best work on the ground with 68 yards and a pair of rushing touchdowns.
The TCU offense has been magnificent as they lead the Big 12 in scoring at 45.8 points per game. Quarterback Max Duggan has been phenomenal as he now has 16 touchdown passes to only one interception. However, we cannot forget about the Horned Frog running backs. Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado average 6.4 and 6.8 yards per carry, respectively.
This total now sits at 55.5, which is peculiar since it involves the league’s highest scoring offense in TCU. It also appears the line has come down since opening at 59. I am guessing that is due to the Fort Worth weather forecast.
Heavy winds pushing people onto the under? Not so fast, my friend! With the way TCU can score and how both teams can move the ball effectively on the ground, I am taking over 55.5.
OUTTA HERE!
Clarknado Sports 