Season record: 9-10-2
Last week: 4-1 (Washington/UCLA over 66, Kentucky +6.5, Illinois +7, Baylor -2.5, Maryland -7.5)
I want to say I am back, but with a season record under .500, I am going to refrain. As you can see, I did go 4-1. Plenty of season left, though.
Let’s keep it rolling, shall we?
Missouri Tigers (2-3) @ Florida Gators (3-2) | October 8 | 11:00 AM CT | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Line: Florida -11 | Total: 55
Last week Missouri almost pulled off the massive upset against Georgia. The Tigers will have to regroup as they head to “The Swamp” to take on Florida. Florida took down Eastern Washington by a score of 52-17 on Sunday due to Hurricane Ian.
I remain skeptical of the Gators. Yes, they dropped a 50-burger on Eastern Washington, but have yet to win a SEC game. Anthony Richardson may have turned a corner in the passing game as he has thrown for 693 yards and 4 touchdowns in the past two games.
Richardson will face a Missouri defense that has not allowed a passing touchdown since September 17. Last week, Stetson Bennett threw for 312 yards, but it took him 44 passes to get to that mark. If Richardson is throwing that many times, I feel good about the Tigers’ chances.
The Missouri offense will rely on their ground game. Nathaniel Peat and Cody Schrader have combined for 523 yards on 102 carries. I think they can have some success against a Florida defense that ranks 113th nationally in run defense, giving up 193.2 rushing yards per game.
Give me Missouri +11.
Louisville Cardinals (2-3) @ Virginia Cavaliers (2-3) | October 8 | 11:00 AM CT | Scott Stadium
Line: Louisville -3 | Total: 50.5
Louisville had an inopportune loss at Boston College last week. The Cardinal defense was carved up by Boston College Phil Jurkovec and the Cardinal offense was plagued by turnovers. Worst of all, quarterback Malik Cunningham was knocked out of the game due to a concussion. The offense stalled without him as backup Brock Domann went 1/8 passing with an interception.
Now Cunningham is listed as day-to-day.
I will continue to monitor that, but their opponent, Virginia, has been quite bad. The Cavaliers sit at 2-3. Their wins consist of a 34-17 victory over Richmond and a 16-14 victory over Old Dominion.
Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong came into the season with the expectation that he would build on his 2021 season. Armstrong threw for 4,449 yards and 31 touchdowns, completing 65.2% of his passes a season ago. This season he has struggled as he is only completing only 52% of his passes with 4 touchdowns to 5 interceptions.
If Armstrong is to get back on track, this could be the game to do it. Louisville gave up 14.5 yards per attempt against Boston College. Against Florida State, they allowed 9.9 yards per attempt.
This total seems a tad low, and that probably is due to Cunningham’s status. I will remain optimistic and go over 50.5.
Wisconsin Badgers (2-3) @ Northwestern Wildcats (1-4) | October 8 | 2:30 PM CT | Ryan Field
Line: Wisconsin -10 | Total: 44
Since defeating Nebraska in Ireland, Northwestern has returned to the States and gone winless. The Wildcats offense has not shown the explosiveness since. In their last four games, the Wildcats are averaging only 4.66 yards per play. That will be welcomed by a Wisconsin defense that is trying to get back on track after consecutive losses.
As for getting back on track, the same applies for the Badger offense. Wisconsin was held to only 2 rushing yards in the loss to Illinois. Braelon Allen is averaging 6.2 yards per carry on the season. I expect him to have a big day against a Northwestern defense that has allowed over 200 rushing yards in their past two games.
I may have buried the lede as defensive coordinator and former Wisconsin safety Jim Leonhard takes over as interim in the wake of Paul Chryst being fired. I feel like there is a natural bump in effort whenever an interim takes over.
Give me Wisconsin -10.
Texas Tech (3-2) @ #7 Oklahoma State (4-0) | October 8 | 2:30 PM CT | Boone Pickens Stadium
Line: Oklahoma State -9.5 | Total: 70
Oklahoma State got the big win at Baylor last week, but they cannot take a break this week. Texas Tech has shown they are capable of pulling of the upset as they did against Texas two weeks ago.
Texas Tech quarterback Donovan Smith leads the Big 12 in passing yards per game with 295.2. Smith has also thrown for 11 touchdowns. However, it is the interceptions that have plagued him. Smith has thrown seven interceptions this season, including two crucial ones in the loss to Kansas State last week.
I believe in Smith’s ability and I trust that he will do a better job of avoiding turnovers going forward.
Oklahoma State had two fourth quarter interceptions to seal their win last week. The Cowboys also got a kickoff return touchdown in a game they were outgained offensively 457 to 379.
Texas Tech +9.5 is my pick.
#21 Washington Huskies (4-1) @ Arizona State Sun Devils | October 8 | 3:00 PM CT | Sun Devil Stadium
Line: Washington -14 | Total: 57.5
Washington has to be ready to get back on the field after their loss to UCLA last Friday. They will face off a reeling Arizona State squad.
Washington quarterback Michael Penix remains the nation’s leading passer with 346.6 passing yards per game. He takes on a suspect defense in Arizona State this Saturday. In their past two games, they have given up 9.2 yards per attempt.
The Washington defense is on the mend after being thrashed by Dorian Thompson-Robinson and UCLA. The Bruins put up 40 points and 499 yards of offense. Thompson-Robinson threw for 315 yards and 3 touchdowns and added 53 yards and a touchdown on the ground.
Arizona State quarterback Emory Jones was a dual threat quarterback in his time at Florida. However, it appears he is not using his legs as much this season. Jones has logged only 7 rushing yards on the season and has been sacked 10 times in the past two weeks. The Huskies should have an easier time getting him on the ground than they did with Thompson-Robinson. They have 16 sacks on the season, which is tied for 11th nationally.
I am going with Washington -14 as I expect a blowout.
OUTTA HERE!
Clarknado Sports 