Season record: 7-11-1

Last week: 1-4 (Oklahoma State/Texas Tech over 63.5, Louisville -6.5, Auburn -3, West Virginia +10.5, SMU -13)

Well, an Oklahoma State game finally went over, but that was the extent of my success last week.

Hopefully I can bounce back this week.

Michigan Wolverines (4-1) @ Illinois Fighting Illini (2-3) | October 12 | 11:00 AM CT | Memorial Stadium

Line: Michigan -21.5 | Total: 50.5

The Michigan defense has gotten back on track since getting pushed around by Wisconsin. In the past two weeks, the Wolverines have given up a total of three points.

Last week, the Michigan was held in check by a really good Iowa defense who only gives up 8.5 points per game. They were held to a season-low in points (10) and yards (267). The Wolverines will face an easier task this week in Illinois. The Illini have given up over 38 points per game in their last three games against Minnesota, Nebraska, and Eastern Michigan.

Michigan bullies bad teams. Following three straight losses, Illinois figures to be going nowhere. I have no idea why they gave Lovie Smith an extension in the offseason.

Michigan -21.5 is the pick.

Oklahoma Sooners (5-0) vs. Texas Longhorns (4-1) | October 12 | 11:00 AM CT | Cotton Bowl

Line: Oklahoma -10.5 | Total: 75.5

The “Red River Rivalry” expects to be a shootout featuring two of the Big 12’s best quarterbacks, Jalen Hurts and Sam Ehlinger.

Oklahoma has been a juggernaut offensively, averaging almost ten yards a play. Hurts is leading that attack. He has already amassed 2,022 yards of total offense and 21 touchdowns.

Ehlinger has been very good as well. He has 1,684 yards of total offense and 20 touchdowns on the year.

However, I think this game comes down to defense. Oklahoma’s defense has been a pleasant surprise this year. The Sooners are giving up only 19 points per game. Additionally, Oklahoma has the second-best third down defense in the country. Opponents have only converted 10 of 51 third down conversions.

By contrast, Texas has allowed opponents to successfully convert 25 of 58 third downs (100th nationally).

I envision the Sooners pulling away in the second half. I am taking Oklahoma -10.5.

Florida State Seminoles (3-2) @ Clemson Tigers (5-0) | October 12 | 2:30 PM CT | Memorial Stadium

Line: Clemson -27 | Total: 60.5

Clemson had a week off to think about their near loss at North Carolina. The Tigers were lucky to survive, and if they do not pick it up, they will find themselves missing the College Football Playoff.

Florida State comes in off of a bye as well. The Seminoles are also on a two-game winning streak.

Sorry, but wins over North Carolina State and Louisville are not going to get me to buy into Florida State.

Clemson -27

Michigan State Spartans (4-2) @ Wisconsin Badgers (5-0) | October 12 | 2:30 PM CT | Camp Randall Stadium

Line: Wisconsin -10.5 | Total: 40.5

This should be a classic Big Ten battle when Michigan State and Wisconsin meet. Both teams are top 15 in scoring defense. Wisconsin leads the country in scoring defense, allowing only 7.3 points per game, while Michigan State is fourteenth, allowing 15 points per game.

Michigan State is typically strong against the run, but that was not the case last week against Ohio State. The Buckeyes rushed for 323 yards. That would seem to spell trouble for the Spartans against Jonathan Taylor, the nation’s third leading rusher. However, the Badgers play a slower pace, which may not give them the same problems Ohio State did.

Michigan State has had trouble scoring in both losses this season. The Spartans scored seven points in their loss to Arizona State, and only ten against Ohio State last week. They will have an uphill battle against a Wisconsin defense that only allows 3.09 yards per play.

While I lean towards Wisconsin, I think that may be too many points in what should be a low-scoring game. That is why I am taking under 40.5.

Ole Miss Rebels (3-3) @ Missouri Tigers (4-1) | October 12 | 6:00 PM CT | Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field

Line: Missouri -11.5 | Total: 57

Missouri has been on a roll since their disappointing loss at Wyoming. The Tigers have won their last four games by an average of 33 points.

Missouri quarterback Kelly Bryant has done a nice job leading the offense. He has thrown for 11 touchdowns this season. Bryant suffered a knee injury against Troy, but is expected to be ready this weekend.

I am not sure what to make of the Ole Miss offense. John Rhys Plumlee has started the past two games at quarterback for the Rebels. While Ole Miss has scored 31 points in each of the past two games, Plumlee’s passing numbers have been underwhelming. He is completing only 46% of his passes in the last two games.

The Rebels’ rushing attack has been a force in their past two games. Ole Miss has piled up 692 rushing yards in their past two games. However, they will face a significant challenge in the Missouri defense which allows only 2.76 yards per rush.

I am taking Missouri -11.5.

OUTTA HERE!