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Week 10 College Football Picks

Season record: 28-24-1

Last week: 5-2 (Boston College +3.5Vanderbilt -1, Georgia -6.5, Florida/Georgia under 52, Arizona State +6.5, South Carolina -8.5, Oklahoma State +3.5)

I am back on track with a big Week 9. Here is how things played out.

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Photo credit: Maddie Meyer, Getty Images

Boston College defeated Miami by a score of 27-14 in their annual Red Bandana Game. AJ Dillon returned to action and ran for 149 yards and a fourth quarter touchdown to put the game out of reach.

The Miami offense’s troubles continued as the Hurricanes only had 305 yards of offense. Malik Rosier was also picked off twice.

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Photo credit: Wesley Hitt, Getty Images

It was a high-scoring affair in Fayetteville where Vanderbilt defeated Arkansas, 45-31. Vanderbilt running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn had a career game with 172 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns.

The Vanderbilt defense intercepted Arkansas quarterback Ty Storey twice and the Vanderbilt offense capitalized. The Commodores scored touchdowns on both both drives after the turnovers, and that was the difference in this game.

 

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Photo credit: Mike Ehrmann, Getty Images

Georgia took down Florida by a score of 36-17. Turnovers played a big role in this game. Georgia took a 10-0 after Jake Fromm completed a touchdown pass to Jeremiah Holloman on a possession set up by a Jordan Scarlett fumble.

Florida did take the lead briefly in the third quarter when Feleipe Franks connected with Freddie Swain for a 36-yard touchdown pass to go up 14-13. Georgia answered right back with another touchdown pass from Fromm to Holloman to make it 20-14.

Georgia scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to put the game out of reach, which also killed my under.

Fromm bounced back from his last outing, a miserable day in Baton Rouge. Fromm completed 17 of 24 passes with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions.

 

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Photo credit: John Cordes, Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Arizona State defeated USC, 38-35, in a wild affair that included four lead changes. Tyler Vaughns got the scoring started with an 82-yard punt return for a touchdown to put USC up 7-0. Arizona State went on to make it 24-7, thanks in part to two Eno Benjamin touchdowns. Jack Sears connected with Michael Pittman, Jr. in the final seconds to pull USC within 10.

Two quick touchdowns in the third quarter put USC up 28-24.

N’Keal Harry, who caught a touchdown in the first half, returned a punt 92 yards to put Arizona State back ahead, 31-28. Then, with under two minutes remaining, Arizona State quarterback Manny Wilkins kept it on a read option and ran for a 45-yard touchdown to put the game out of reach.

Jack Sears threw a late touchdown to cut the lead to 38-35, but the onside kick was unsuccessful and Arizona State took home the victory.

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Photo credit: Streeter Lecka, Getty Images

South Carolina had to rally from being down 21-9 to win Saturday night. The Gamecocks tied the game, 24-24, late in the third quarter after a Ty’Son Williams touchdown run and successful two-point conversion.

Parker White’s 25-yard field goal gave South Carolina the 27-24 victory, but the cover was never in play because of the early deficit.

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Photo credit: Brian Bahr, Getty Images

Oklahoma State looked rejuvenated coming out of their bye. After getting a week off after being embarrassed by Kansas State, the Cowboys raced out to a 31-14 lead against Texas.

Oklahoma State held of Texas, 38-35, as the Longhorns staged a second half rally.

Oklahoma State Taylor Cornelius had one of the best games in his career. Cornelius threw for 321 yards and 3 touchdowns and also ran for a pair of scores.

The big story came postgame with Oklahoma State head coach defending his quarterback from critics on Twitter.

Mike Gundy’s Thoughts on Twitter

 

Moving on to Week 10…

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Photo credit: Michael Chang, Getty Images

Texas A&M Aggies @ Auburn Tigers | 11:00 AM CT | November 3 | Jordan-Hare Stadium

Line: Auburn -4.5 | Total: 48.5

Texas A&M comes into Auburn after suffering a road loss at Mississippi State. The Aggies struggled offensively in their 28-13 loss.

This will be Texas A&M’s third road game in four weeks. The Aggies are 1-2 in those games; at Alabama, at South Carolina, and at Mississippi State. A major factor is their inability to run the ball on the road. For the year, Texas A&M averages 186 rushing yards per game, however, on the road, that figure drops to 99 rushing yards per game. They will meet another stiff test in an Auburn defense that only allows 3.3 yards per rush and has only given up 3 rushing touchdowns all season.

Texas A&M quarterback Kellen Mond has been sacked 25 times this season, the most of any SEC quarterback. Again, this will be a challenge going against an Auburn defense with 24 sacks on the season.

Auburn is coming off a bye week to get some of their offensive issues straightened out. I have to think Gus Malzahn will have something up his sleeve, so I am taking Auburn -4.5.

 

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Photo credit: Michael Shroyer, Getty Images

Georgia Tech Yellow Jacks @ North Carolina Tar Heels | 11:15 AM CT | November 3 | Kenan Stadium

Line: Georgia Tech -5 | Total: 61.5

This might be one of my favorite picks of the year. North Carolina gives up 191 rushing yards per game. That is bad news when you are facing a Georgia Tech team who runs the ball for an average of 367 yards per game.

Also Georgia Tech has a turnover margin of +5, while North Carolina’s is -8.

I have little reason to believe a 1-6 team will be interested in stopping the triple option. Georgia Tech -5 is the pick.

 

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Photo credit: Jamie Squire, Getty Images

Georgia Bulldogs @ Kentucky Wildcats | 2:30 PM CT | November 3 | Kroger Field

Line: Georgia -9.5 | Total: 44

This has to be the biggest Kentucky football game in my lifetime. Georgia comes into Lexington with the SEC East on the line.

Obviously, Kentucky’s offense has had difficulties, but this team does not quit. Trailing 14-3 in the fourth quarter against Missouri, the Wildcats got a punt return for a touchdown and touchdown pass in the final seconds to pull off an improbable 15-14 victory.

It will be strength on strength as Georgia’s explosive offense meets Kentucky’s stingy defense. Georgia averages 458 yards of offense per game while Kentucky only allows 295 yards per game.

Kentucky will be depending on Benny Snell Jr. and the ground game as they have all season. Snell has 935 yards and 9 touchdowns on the season. He could have some success against Saturday which has been susceptible physical running lately. LSU rushed for 275 yards while Florida ran for 170.

Kentucky +9.5 is my pick as I expect the Wildcats to challenge the Bulldogs in a physical matchup.

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Photo credit: Gregory Fisher, Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Northwestern Wildcats | 6:15 PM CT | November 3 | Ryan Field

Line: Notre Dame -9.5 | Total: 53.5

Notre Dame comes into this game 8-0 while Northwestern is on a 4-game winning streak of their own.

Ian Book has added another dynamic to the Notre Dame offense since taking over as starting quarterback. Book is completing 76.5% of his passes and averaging 294 yards passing per game in that span.

I actually looked for reasons to pick Northwestern here, but I was unable to find any. I expect the Irish to have too much firepower for the Wildcats, who narrowly squeaked by the likes of Nebraska and Rutgers.

I am taking Notre Dame -9.5 as they stay in the College Football Playoff hunt with another convincing win.

 

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Photo credit: John Korduner, Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Alabama Crimson Tide @ LSU Tigers | 7:00 PM CT | November 3 | Tiger Stadium

Line: Alabama -14.5 | Total: 54

LSU.

At home.

At night.

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The last three meetings between LSU and Alabama in Baton Rouge have been decided by an average of seven points. History suggests this will be a close game.

Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been remarkable, with 25 touchdowns and no interceptions. However, his biggest challenge of the season will be Saturday. LSU, affectionately known as “DBU”, leads the country in interceptions with 14 and has only allowed 7 passing touchdowns on the year.

LSU +14.5 is the pick.

OUTTA HERE!

 

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