Season record: 9-6

Last week: 3-3 (Arizona State -5, Vanderbilt +14, LSU +10.5, Kansas -2.5, Ole Miss +21, Missouri -6)

This was my worst week to date, but my season record is still respectable at 9-6. Hopefully it stays that way. Let’s recap last week in chronological order..

Do not doubt Kansas!

Kansas dominated Rutgers by a score of 55-14. Pooka Williams once again got it done on the ground for the Jayhawks as he rushed for 158 yards and a touchdown. The Kansas defense forced six turnovers, including two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns.

Kansas covered 2.5 easily and is now 2-1 for the first time since 2014.

Notre Dame held a 16-3 lead at halftime, but had to hold off a Vanderbilt rally in the second half to secure the victory. The Commodores were able to hang around and get the cover, but three costly turnovers were too much to overcome to get the win.

Rest assured, Vanderbilt looks improved. Look for this team to bowl eligible at season’s end.

This was another classic LSU-Auburn affair. LSU came away with the victory as Cole Tracy hit the game-winning field goal as time expired.

Last week, I pointed out LSU had an advantage in a certain stat. That proved to be the case again last Saturday.

One of those turnovers, a Jarrett Stidham interception on the opening drive, set up LSU’s first touchdown.

Hold that Tiger!

It was another solid day of work for Drew Lock and the Missouri offense. The Tigers piled up 608 yards of offense in their 40-37 win over Purdue. However, it was not enough to get the cover. Speaking of failing to cover, the Missouri defense allowed Purdue quarterback David Blough to throw for 572 yards and 3 touchdowns. Though 74 of those yards came on this wacky play.

 

Ole Miss took a 7-0 lead on their first play from scrimmage. I felt good about my prediction, but it was short lived. Then Alabama went on to do Alabama things and won 62-7.

I thought Ole Miss could score with anyone and I was wrong. Ole Miss high-powered passing game was held to only 133 yards, 75 of which came on the first play. Meanwhile, Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa did not even need an entire half to put up a healthy stat line. Tagovailoa finished the night completing 11 of 15 passes for 191 yards and 2 touchdowns.

I went with Arizona State in this game because I believed in their ability to stop the run. That was not the case Saturday night. San Diego State running back ran for 138 yards and a touchdown. As a team, the Aztecs ran for 311 yards and came away with a 28-21 victory.

Entering the game, Arizona State had the top rushing defense in the country. After the loss, they are now 42nd in that category.

I am starting to see diminishing returns. It is time to dial it up a notch. I got some criticism for including the Rutgers/Kansas game, so I tried to do a better jobs of including games that people will care about. However,  I could not pass up a MAC team going to Rutgers.

Here I go again…

Buffalo Bulls @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 11:00 AM CT | September 22 | HighPoint.com Stadium

Line: Buffalo -5.5 | Total: 51.5

Here is what I know; Rutgers is an atrocious football team. In their past two games, the Scarlet Knights have been outscored 107-17. Buffalo, on the other hand, is 3-0. The Bulls have wins over Eastern Michigan and Temple, who both have wins over Big Ten opponents. Buffalo quarterback has thrown for at least three touchdowns in each game. Rutgers quarterback Artur Sitkowski, on the other hand, has thrown for only one touchdown while throwing seven interceptions.

I have Buffalo going into Rutgers and covering -5.5. Look for the Jolly Roger flag to be hung in HighPoint.com Stadium. MACtion, baby!

Now, for some better games.

Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Michigan Wolverines | 11:00 AM CT | September 22 | Michigan Stadium

Line: Michigan -17 | Total: 50.5

Nebraska is coming off of a tough loss to Troy. Trust me, I can sympathize since it happened to LSU last year. You know what LSU did the next week, though? Went on the road and beat a team head coached by a guy named Jim.

The Cornhuskers now go on the road to face Jim Harbaugh and Michigan. Coincidence? I think not.

I believe both teams are still works in progress.  While Michigan has picked up wins over Western Michigan and SMU, they still sit at 84th in total offense with 397 yards per game. Nebraska has had issues with turnovers, as they have given the ball away multiple times in both games.

Quarterback Adrian Martinez’s chances of playing in this game are improving. Martinez, who missed the Troy game due to injury, could give the Michigan defense trouble with his dual threat ability. In the opener, Notre Dame quarterback Brandon Wimbush made multiple plays running the ball against the Wolverines.

I believe in Scott Frost and I believe that Nebraska will give Michigan all they can handle this Saturday. I’m going with Nebraska +17.

Georgia Bulldogs @ Missouri Tigers | 11:00 AM CT | September 22 | Memorial Stadium

Line: Georgia -14 | Total: 64.5

After seeing what Georgia did, I told you I was not doubting them anymore. I am going to stick to that, for now. Drew Lock has been great this year, but UT-Martin, Wyoming, and Purdue are not Georgia.

I do not expect Georgia to air it out as much as Purdue did, but when they do I expect them to have success. Quarterback Jake Fromm is completing 80% of his passes this year, and that should continue Saturday.

Georgia -14 is my pick.

Kansas State Wildcats @ West Virginia Mountaineers | 2:30 PM CT | September 22 | Milan Puskar Stadium

Line: West Virginia -16 | Total: 60.5

Kansas State is going on the road for the first time in 2018. I do not expect the Mountaineers to be friendly hosts. The West Virginia offense has been quite explosive, averaging 586 yards and 46 points per game. Quarterback Will Grier has been stellar as he has completed 76% of his passes with a whopping 12.6 yards per attempt. They will also be going against a Kansas State defense dealing with multiple injuries. The Wildcats could be without safety Denzel Goolsby, linebacker Elijah Sullivan, and defensive back Kevion McGee.

Kansas State has played one Power 5 opponent, Mississippi State. In that game, the Wildcats were outgained 538 to 213 in yardage.

My pick is West Virginia -16.

Texas A&M Aggies @ Alabama Crimson Tide | 2:30 PM CT | September 22 | Bryant-Denny Stadium

Line: Alabama -26 | Total: 61

This point spread looks absurd if you have not seen Alabama play this year. Now I know Texas A&M looks improved, but they are in for a rude awakening Saturday in Tuscaloosa. I saw what Kellen Mond did against Clemson, but I also saw what Jordan Ta’amu did against Alabama. Ta’amu is a good quarterback in his own right.

Jimbo Fisher is a former assistant of Nick Saban. Saban is 12-0 against former assistants, and I look for that streak to grow Saturday.

I am taking Alabama -26.

Northern Illinois Huskies @ Florida State Seminoles | 2:30 PM CT | September 22 | Doak Campbell Stadium

Line: Florida State -10 | Total: 45

If you watched Florida State this past Saturday, you know they absolutely stink. The Seminoles were only able to muster up 240 yards of offense against Syracuse. The offensive line had an assortment of issues and gave up four sacks on the day.

Northern Illinois comes into this game with offensive issues of their own. The Huskies are averaging 12.3 points per game, which ranks 128th nationally.

I cannot see how Florida State can be a double-digit favorite against anyone right now. I am going to ride for the MAC here and take Northern Illinois +10. I am also going with under 45.

The chances of Florida State turning around their season are about as good as Jameis Winston getting his starting job back. Shout out Fitzmagic!

 

Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Kentucky Wildcats | 6:00 PM CT | September 22 | Kroger Field

Line: Mississippi State -9.5 | Total: 55.5

Kentucky had one of its biggest wins, probably ever, two weeks ago when they won at Florida. Now Mississippi State comes to town. The Bulldogs have been dominant so far this season. The Bulldogs are top 10 in both total offense and total defense.

Kentucky has relied on its running game. Junior running back Benny Snell has rushed for 125 yards per game. He and the rest of Kentucky’s rushing attack will be tested by a Mississippi State defense that only allows 2.5 yards per rush.

Mississippi State is led by senior quarterback Nick Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald has not missed a beat since returning from his one game suspension. He has accounted 663 yards of total offense and 8 touchdowns.

It is worth noting that Mississippi State defeated Kentucky 45-7 in 2017. Kentucky is improved, but Mississippi State is, too. I am going with Mississippi State -10 as they head into their matchup with Florida and former coach Dan Mullen.

 

 

Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Oklahoma State Cowboys | 6:00 PM CT | September 22 | Boone Pickens Stadium

Line: Oklahoma State -14 | Total: 77.5

This is a classic Big 12 shootout featuring two of the top passing offenses in the country. Texas Tech leads the nation with 449 passing yards per game while Oklahoma State is 12th with 333 passing yards per game. Both teams also average over 50 points per game.

Defense is optional. I am taking  over 77.5.

OUTTA HERE!